Fatek
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$12.50
Advertised RTP
88.81%
EV $11.10 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.41%
6,451 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,464 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/883201, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.81%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.50 | 88.81% | 33 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%covert 6.2%red 0.3%classified 20.6%pink 2.2%restricted 12.9%#eb4b4b 3.2%Legendary 2.4%milspec 4.4%mil spec 9.6%#4b69ff 15.0%#87c7ff 23.1%best hit $563 (45.05x)