Shadow Fade
A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.
Price
$250.00
Advertised RTP
86.56%
EV $216.41 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.88%
52 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 52 openings and 19.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
g4skins:feed/cases/952614, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.56%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $250 | 86.56% | 31 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 3.0%covert 91.8%#ffd700 0.8%rare 0.1%covert knife 3.8%legendary 0.4%best hit $1,124 (4.50x)