Admin

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.45

Advertised RTP

92.01%

EV $2.25 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.35%

1,600 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.31%±12.12261 openings

7 days

86.73%±5.041,436 openings

30 days

87.35%±4.771,600 openings

since tracking started

87.35%±4.771,600 openings

72.5%85.3%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	261	85.31%±12.1	−1.1σ	odds
7d	1,436	86.73%±5.04	−2.1σ	odds
30d	1,600	87.35%±4.77	−1.9σ	odds
All	1,600	87.35%±4.77	−1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,600 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$18.76	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Safecracker Voltzmann \| The Professionalsagent · pink	1 in 847	$17.75	0.9%	4	1.9	2.12×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 186	$16.85	4.0%	3	8.6	0.35×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$16.78	0.3%	5	0.6	—
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 383	$13.66	1.6%	9	4.2	2.16×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 102	$13.25	5.8%	5	15.7	0.32×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 148	$9.27	2.8%	10	10.8	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 217	$6.38	1.3%	16	7.4	2.17×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$6.28	4.2%	19	24.3	0.78×
AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$5.93	4.3%	24	26.1	0.92×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 57	$5.79	4.5%	12	28.2	0.43×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 128	$5.12	1.8%	18	12.5	1.44×
MAC-10 \| Tatter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$5.03	2.9%	20	20.9	0.95×
P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$5.02	3.6%	24	26.0	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$4.28	3.7%	26	31.4	0.83×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$3.63	3.3%	31	32.9	0.94×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$3.28	3.4%	33	37.7	0.88×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 35	$3.22	4.1%	41	46.0	0.89×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 43	$3.05	3.2%	35	37.5	0.93×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 42	$3.03	3.2%	37	38.4	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$2.71	2.7%	41	35.3	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$2.67	2.9%	56	38.5	1.45×
Charm \| Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon	1 in 35	$2.50	3.2%	38	46.0	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$2.33	3.6%	47	55.4	0.85×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 28	$2.08	3.2%	59	56.2	1.05×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$1.92	3.6%	79	67.6	1.17×
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 19	$1.34	3.1%	88	84.2	1.05×
P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.98	2.7%	123	97.5	1.26×
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 16	$0.98	2.7%	106	98.0	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$0.97	2.7%	93	101.0	0.92×
P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.94	2.9%	77	111.8	0.69×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.90	2.3%	98	90.7	1.08×
MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$0.75	1.7%	81	81.8	0.99×
Charm \| That's Bananascharm · uncommon	1 in 16	$0.66	1.9%	103	102.2	1.01×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.55	1.9%	139	122.5	1.13×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/admin-ggdrop, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalBABAYKA$2.45$0.950.39x12m

P90 | ScaraB Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedmoNic$2.45$5.022.05x23m

Charm | That's Bananascharm · uncommonmoNic$2.45$0.660.27x23m

AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedCARCAHİL ADAM$2.45$5.942.42x1h

P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalCARCAHİL ADAM$2.45$0.950.39x1h

P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violetB0RAT$2.45$0.550.22x1h

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecДРЕЛЬ$2.45$0.980.40x1h

SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffD.Vla.M$2.45$1.340.55x2h

P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)weapon · violetD.Vla.M$2.45$0.550.22x2h

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffPhylong$2.45$5.162.11x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.45	92.01%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.45	92.06%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.45	92.08%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.45	92.09%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.45	92.03%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.45	92.06%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.45	92.06%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.45	92.10%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.45	92.02%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.45	92.06%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.45	92.00%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 4.2%pink 5.7%rare 0.5%Legendary 1.4%#d32ee6 0.7%industrial 1.8%#8847ff 12.4%restricted 7.7%mil spec 9.9%milspec 8.5%Mil Spec Grade 2.4%uncommon 9.3%violet 15.3%Rare 8.6%Mythical 6.1%blue 5.7%best hit —