AK-47

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$12.01
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $11.05 from 152 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.87%
2,732 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
109.18%±13.40432 openings
7 days
99.28%±5.872,292 openings
30 days
99.87%±5.372,732 openings
since tracking started
99.87%±5.372,732 openings
91.5%107.3%123.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.50% – 105.24%, 2,732 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h432109.18%±13.4+2.5σodds
7d2,29299.28%±5.87+2.4σodds
30d2,73299.87%±5.37+2.9σodds
All2,73299.87%±5.37+2.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values152 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,732 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$5750.8%10.4—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$3880.7%00.5—
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 9,091$2380.2%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$2050.2%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,143$1950.2%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1930.3%10.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 9,091$1840.2%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1760.3%00.5—
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 7,143$1750.2%00.4—
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1740.2%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,692$1670.2%10.4—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1670.2%10.4—
AK-47 | First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 6,250$1640.2%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1510.3%00.5—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1500.2%10.3—
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$1450.2%00.5—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$1410.3%00.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1390.2%10.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1330.2%10.4—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1330.2%20.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 4,348$1300.3%20.6—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1290.2%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 4,762$1270.2%00.6—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1260.1%00.3—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 10,000$1220.1%10.3—
AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1190.1%00.4—
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1170.1%20.3—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 7,692$1170.1%00.4—
AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 4,762$1140.2%00.6—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1120.1%10.3—
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$1110.3%10.8—
AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1110.1%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1080.2%10.5—
AK-47 | B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,326$97.020.4%01.20.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$96.540.1%20.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$92.480.1%20.3—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,887$90.090.4%01.40.00×
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$89.260.1%30.4—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,887$88.640.4%01.40.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,556$88.610.1%20.5—
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,500$87.760.3%11.10.92×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$79.100.1%30.4—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$75.730.1%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 5,556$73.610.1%00.5—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 7,692$73.350.1%20.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 5,556$72.900.1%10.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$70.420.1%20.3—
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 5,263$68.180.1%00.5—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$66.860.1%20.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,351$65.530.4%22.00.99×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 2,174$65.330.3%41.33.18×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 2,174$63.980.3%01.30.00×
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 575$63.811.0%44.80.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$63.280.1%00.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,053$62.670.5%32.61.16×
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 8,333$61.260.1%10.3—
AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 885$58.970.6%33.10.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 704$55.940.7%53.91.29×
AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 571$51.880.8%84.81.67×
AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 424$51.181.1%66.40.93×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 444$51.021.0%46.10.65×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 469$48.690.9%45.80.69×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 386$45.631.1%87.11.13×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 488$44.450.8%65.61.07×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 645$43.260.6%14.20.24×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 613$39.150.6%74.51.57×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 806$38.880.4%33.40.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 415$38.870.8%56.60.76×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 333$38.711.1%28.20.24×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 676$37.730.5%44.00.99×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 775$37.320.4%73.51.99×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 1,471$37.020.2%51.92.69×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 952$36.160.3%42.91.39×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 518$36.070.6%35.30.57×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 476$35.570.7%85.71.39×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 524$34.430.6%175.23.26×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 654$32.940.5%74.21.67×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 310$32.130.9%138.81.47×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 273$31.561.0%810.00.80×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 265$31.231.1%1210.31.17×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 297$30.770.9%99.20.98×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 285$30.691.0%149.61.46×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 234$29.641.1%1311.71.11×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 375$28.260.7%147.31.92×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 186$27.261.3%1214.70.82×
AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 178$27.131.4%1415.40.91×
AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 142$26.861.7%1819.20.94×
AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 136$23.931.6%2320.01.15×
AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 125$22.521.6%1621.80.73×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 102$21.851.9%2226.80.82×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 83$20.132.2%3633.11.09×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 97$18.871.8%3428.11.21×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 100$17.591.6%4727.51.71×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 100$17.111.5%2827.31.02×
AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 88$17.111.8%2531.10.80×
AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 104$16.951.5%2926.31.10×
AK-47 | Predator (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 126$15.671.1%1921.70.87×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 127$15.511.1%1821.60.83×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 114$14.841.2%2423.91.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 98$14.621.4%3228.01.14×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 135$14.281.0%1620.20.79×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 94$14.171.4%1729.00.59×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 124$14.051.0%2722.01.23×
AK-47 | Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 120$13.771.0%4022.81.76×
AK-47 | Predator (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 116$13.761.1%2823.51.19×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 98$13.241.2%5028.01.79×
AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 81$12.141.4%4033.91.18×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 77$11.971.4%4635.61.29×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 61$11.501.7%4745.11.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 56$11.351.8%4948.51.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 61$11.101.6%4244.50.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 46$9.701.9%5659.30.94×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 46$8.671.7%5959.01.00×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 40$8.421.9%8367.91.22×
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 33$6.891.9%8383.31.00×
AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 38$6.731.6%6972.10.96×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 46$6.521.3%4959.00.83×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 42$6.421.4%5465.70.82×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 103$6.290.6%4726.61.77×
AK-47 | The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce61 in 93$6.240.6%4529.51.53×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 90$6.120.6%2830.40.92×
AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 102$5.960.5%2926.91.08×
AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 88$5.790.6%3030.90.97×
AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 71$5.730.7%2838.20.73×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 76$5.590.7%3435.90.95×
AK-47 | The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 75$5.560.7%2536.20.69×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 63$4.490.6%4243.60.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 57$4.430.7%4448.20.91×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 51$4.410.8%5453.11.02×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 40$4.241.0%5767.80.84×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 112$4.150.3%1924.30.78×
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 111$4.020.3%2224.60.89×
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue1 in 83$3.880.4%2933.00.88×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 87$3.820.4%3131.40.99×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical1 in 80$3.670.4%3834.21.11×
AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 72$3.620.5%2937.80.77×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical1 in 71$3.320.4%5838.51.51×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 77$3.320.4%3835.61.07×
AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 68$3.120.4%3840.20.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 66$2.920.4%5241.21.26×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 57$2.250.4%4848.20.99×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 56$2.250.4%5548.71.13×
AK-47 | Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 54$2.210.4%3350.20.66×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 53$2.100.4%8051.91.54×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 52$2.080.4%5752.91.08×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 80$1.700.2%3434.11.00×
AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 69$1.070.1%4539.81.13×
AK-47 | Uncharted (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 64$0.870.1%3542.90.81×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 46$0.450.1%1659.40.27×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 57$0.240.0%948.10.19×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 156$0.140.0%017.50.00×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 149$0.140.0%018.30.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/ak47, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$12.0192.00%152
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$12.0192.09%152
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$12.0192.00%152
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$12.0192.07%152
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$12.0192.03%152
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$12.0192.00%152
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$12.0192.07%152
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$12.0192.00%152
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$12.0192.07%152
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$12.0192.03%152
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$12.0192.00%152
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$12.0192.00%152
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$12.0192.00%152
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$12.0192.04%152
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$12.0192.00%152
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$12.0192.06%152
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$12.0192.00%152
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$12.0192.00%152
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$12.0192.00%152
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$12.0192.00%152
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$12.0192.01%152
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$12.0192.00%152
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$12.0192.00%152
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$12.0192.04%152
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$12.0192.00%152
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$12.0192.06%152
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$12.0192.00%152
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$12.0192.10%152
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$12.0192.00%152
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$12.0192.00%152
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.9%red 0.6%classified 12.6%Ancient 0.3%restricted 18.4%industrial 14.3%rare 2.8%mil spec 9.7%#d32ee6 1.9%Classified 1.2%Mythical 6.9%violet 3.0%Restricted 1.6%Legendary 2.2%pink 3.5%#d32ce6 1.1%milspec 8.0%Uncommon 3.1%light blue 1.2%Rare 5.2%#87c7ff 0.6%best hit $567 (47.19x)