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Boogeyman

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$1.19
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $1.09 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.66%
40.3K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
100.37%±3.385,299 openings
7 days
95.55%±1.3135.5K openings
30 days
95.66%±1.2340.3K openings
since tracking started
95.66%±1.2340.3K openings
91.5%98.0%104.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.43% – 96.89%, 40,277 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5,299100.37%±3.38+4.8σodds
7d35.5K95.55%±1.31+5.3σodds
30d40.3K95.66%±1.23+5.8σodds
All40.3K95.66%±1.23+5.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 7,692$30.110.4%115.22.10×
M4A4 | Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 8,333$26.040.3%94.81.86×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,695$20.481.1%2423.81.01×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 375$17.804.3%30107.60.28×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 260$13.914.9%83155.20.53×
P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 6,667$11.650.2%1836.030.27×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 205$7.253.2%273196.71.39×
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 77$4.735.6%472520.40.91×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 84$2.923.2%615480.51.28×
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 62$2.714.0%859649.01.32×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 41$2.495.5%1,042981.51.06×
P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 38$2.255.5%1,0431071.40.97×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 56$1.702.7%863713.51.21×
Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 45$1.633.3%1,002895.31.12×
Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 33$1.624.5%1,0461216.90.86×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 38$1.553.8%1,0891074.21.01×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 65$1.371.9%793623.21.27×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 49$1.302.4%919815.91.13×
MP9 | Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 40$1.212.8%1,1321018.21.11×
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 41$1.192.7%987990.01.00×
AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 38$1.052.5%1,1551066.21.08×
P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 33$0.962.7%1,2341237.11.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 33$0.942.6%1,1531217.70.95×
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 30$0.922.8%1,3491348.71.00×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$0.862.4%1,3181237.11.07×
Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 30$0.802.4%1,3031330.20.98×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 28$0.702.3%1,6181458.41.11×
Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 24$0.642.5%1,7931711.51.05×
P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 19$0.612.9%2,1872085.21.05×
Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 19$0.532.6%2,2542168.61.04×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 18$0.522.6%2,2742199.31.03×
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 18$0.452.3%2,5372270.61.12×
MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 14$0.442.8%2,7802785.41.00×
Glock-18 | Off World (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 14$0.332.1%3,0812863.61.08×
M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 11$0.262.2%1,7983780.20.48×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/boogeyman-helloween, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffKeSh$1.19$0.460.39x
P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedya etot$1.19$0.610.51x
M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedKeSh$1.19$0.510.43x
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffya etot$1.19$0.860.72x
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalya etot$1.19$1.551.30x
Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedya etot$1.19$1.591.34x
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffya etot$1.19$0.860.72x
MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rareya etot$1.19$0.420.35x
P90 | Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedmekthereal$1.19$0.610.51x
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffmekthereal$1.19$1.170.98x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$1.1992.00%35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$1.1992.00%35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$1.1992.00%35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$1.1992.00%35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$1.1992.00%35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$1.1992.00%35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$1.1992.04%35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$1.1992.00%35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$1.1992.00%35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$1.1992.00%35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$1.1992.00%35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$1.1992.00%35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$1.1992.00%35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$1.1992.00%35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$1.1992.00%35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$1.1992.00%35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$1.1992.00%35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$1.1992.00%35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$1.1992.00%35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$1.1992.00%35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$1.1992.00%35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$1.1992.00%35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$1.1992.00%35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$1.1992.00%35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$1.1992.00%35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$1.1992.00%35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$1.1992.00%35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$1.1992.00%35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$1.1992.00%35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$1.1992.01%35
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%classified 5.0%pink 3.5%#d32ce6 1.3%Classified 2.4%Mythical 17.4%restricted 25.9%#8847ff 7.1%violet 3.1%Rare 12.3%#4b69ff 5.6%milspec 7.1%blue 9.4%best hit —