Chroma 3 Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$3.62

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $3.33 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.01%

84 openings, odds method

Variance

3.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

15 openings · below min

7 days

57 openings · below min

30 days

84 openings · below min

since tracking started

84 openings · below min

-0.5%86.8%174.0%

Small sample. 84 openings and 10.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	15	72.58%±100.6	—	odds
7d	57	83.83%±53.3	—	odds
30d	84	84.01%±43.7	—	odds
All	84	84.01%±43.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values125 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 84 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$153	0.7%	0	0.0	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$143	0.4%	0	0.0	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$139	0.4%	0	0.0	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$137	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$133	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 6,250	$133	0.6%	0	0.0	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$131	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$131	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 3,704	$130	1.1%	0	0.0	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$130	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$129	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$126	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$125	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 6,667	$124	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 5,263	$124	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,571	$83.41	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$40.61	0.2%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$30.35	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,500	$24.74	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,695	$23.57	0.4%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,205	$17.45	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,020	$15.98	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 333	$15.71	1.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 397	$15.37	1.2%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 360	$14.33	1.2%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 633	$14.26	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,010	$14.14	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 847	$13.80	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 565	$13.59	0.7%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 901	$13.55	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 402	$13.51	1.0%	2	0.2	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 280	$13.38	1.4%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 820	$13.36	0.5%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 200	$13.23	2.0%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,064	$12.97	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 244	$12.94	1.6%	1	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 193	$12.94	2.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 137	$12.36	2.7%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 131	$12.32	2.8%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$12.23	3.7%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 77	$12.20	4.8%	1	1.1	0.92×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$8.95	4.9%	1	1.5	0.65×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$7.25	4.9%	3	1.9	1.57×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 32	$4.99	4.7%	4	2.7	1.50×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$4.66	5.5%	2	3.3	0.61×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$3.56	4.6%	3	3.6	0.83×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$3.21	4.4%	5	3.8	1.32×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 28	$2.98	3.2%	5	3.0	1.69×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$2.85	3.2%	5	3.2	1.57×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 38	$2.34	1.9%	3	2.2	1.35×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 38	$2.25	1.8%	2	2.2	0.91×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$2.24	1.7%	3	2.1	1.44×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 43	$2.20	1.5%	3	2.0	1.53×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.92	0.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 73	$1.85	0.8%	1	1.2	0.87×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$1.82	0.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Black Tie (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 66	$1.82	0.8%	2	1.3	1.58×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$1.81	0.9%	1	1.4	0.73×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$1.76	0.4%	1	0.7	—
P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 183	$1.76	0.3%	1	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 161	$1.67	0.3%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Black Tie (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 134	$1.63	0.4%	1	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 280	$1.55	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Atlas (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 132	$1.55	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$1.49	0.5%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 132	$1.47	0.3%	0	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 164	$1.46	0.3%	2	0.5	—
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 168	$1.42	0.3%	1	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 131	$1.42	0.3%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 131	$1.42	0.3%	0	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 323	$1.41	0.1%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 256	$1.40	0.2%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 245	$1.39	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 181	$1.38	0.2%	1	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 198	$1.37	0.2%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Black Tie (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$1.36	0.2%	1	0.5	—
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$1.33	0.3%	0	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 188	$1.32	0.2%	1	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 138	$1.32	0.3%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$1.31	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 139	$1.31	0.3%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 89	$1.29	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 107	$1.28	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 108	$1.28	0.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 89	$1.04	0.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 54	$1.02	0.6%	1	1.6	0.64×
SG 553 \| Atlas (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 55	$0.90	0.5%	3	1.5	1.95×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$0.72	0.7%	0	2.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 53	$0.64	0.4%	2	1.6	1.25×
P2000 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 45	$0.60	0.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 48	$0.60	0.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 58	$0.57	0.3%	2	1.4	1.39×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 105	$0.55	0.2%	2	0.8	—
MP9 \| Bioleak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 168	$0.53	0.1%	2	0.5	—
M249 \| Spectre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 169	$0.53	0.1%	0	0.5	—
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 231	$0.51	0.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 231	$0.51	0.1%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 296	$0.50	0.1%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Atlas (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 202	$0.49	0.1%	0	0.4	—
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 259	$0.47	0.1%	1	0.3	—
M249 \| Spectre (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 275	$0.46	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 613	$0.45	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Oceanic (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 398	$0.44	0.0%	1	0.2	—
P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 285	$0.44	0.0%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 226	$0.44	0.1%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Atlas (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 342	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 205	$0.43	0.1%	0	0.4	—
G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 535	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 350	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 358	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 353	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.2	—
M249 \| Spectre (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 262	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 361	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 255	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Atlas (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 412	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 538	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 299	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 263	$0.36	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 268	$0.36	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 205	$0.35	0.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 171	$0.35	0.1%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 212	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 209	$0.34	0.0%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 213	$0.33	0.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 105	$0.29	0.1%	1	0.8	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/chroma3, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ffKupātss$3.62$1.290.36x9h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Atlas (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecKupātss$3.62$0.290.08x9h

Galil AR | Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetKupātss$3.62$1.300.36x9h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedKupātss$3.62$1.820.50x9h

MP9 | Bioleak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueKupātss$3.62$0.530.15x9h

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restrictedKupātss$3.62$3.220.89x9h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedKupātss$3.62$2.840.78x9h

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New)weapon · restrictedPhylong$3.62$3.220.89x9h

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Black Tie (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPhylong$3.62$1.750.48x9h

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPhylong$3.62$4.661.29x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$3.62	92.06%	125
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$3.62	92.03%	125
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$3.62	92.01%	125
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$3.62	92.01%	125
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$3.62	92.03%	125
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$3.62	92.03%	125
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$3.62	92.08%	125
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$3.62	92.10%	125
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$3.62	92.07%	125
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$3.62	92.03%	125
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$3.62	92.00%	125

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%Covert 0.1%red 0.0%Legendary 1.0%classified 4.9%#d32ee6 0.4%pink 1.3%restricted 35.0%Restricted 11.5%Mythical 6.2%#8847ff 4.7%mil spec 2.6%violet 3.0%Rare 14.5%Mil Spec 1.3%milspec 8.5%#4b69ff 2.9%blue 1.2%Mil Spec Grade 0.4%other 0.5%best hit —