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Classified

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$8.00
Advertised RTP
92.07%
EV $7.37 from 77 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.46%
535 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
50 openings · below min
7 days
82.41%±10.29453 openings
30 days
84.46%±9.43535 openings
since tracking started
84.46%±9.43535 openings
49.5%81.3%113.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5081.35%±31.0—odds
7d45382.41%±10.3−1.8σodds
30d53584.46%±9.43−1.6σodds
All53584.46%±9.43−1.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 535 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 5,556$1320.3%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,266$1251.3%00.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,695$93.740.8%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,087$89.351.1%00.5—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$80.310.2%00.1—
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 885$68.761.1%00.6—
AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 806$67.591.1%00.7—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,250$55.200.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 585$51.951.2%00.9—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 633$51.621.1%00.8—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 735$46.380.9%00.7—
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 855$45.340.7%10.6—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 395$42.131.4%01.40.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 326$38.051.6%01.60.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 800$37.970.6%00.7—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 196$30.252.1%42.71.46×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 279$27.791.4%21.91.04×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 266$27.401.4%12.00.50×
USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 144$25.502.4%53.71.34×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 292$23.301.1%31.81.64×
AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 255$22.911.2%42.11.91×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 213$22.061.4%12.50.40×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 230$21.411.3%32.31.29×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 298$21.181.0%21.81.11×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 585$20.370.5%20.9—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 606$19.930.4%10.9—
AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 268$19.561.0%02.00.00×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 234$19.161.1%22.30.87×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 160$18.081.5%13.30.30×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 279$17.750.9%31.91.57×
StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 332$17.190.7%41.62.48×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 150$17.091.5%43.61.12×
AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 168$16.781.4%63.21.88×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 179$14.951.1%13.00.33×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 175$14.361.1%23.00.66×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 169$14.061.1%13.20.32×
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 145$13.981.3%13.70.27×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 398$13.910.5%41.32.98×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 214$13.840.9%22.50.80×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 277$13.550.7%11.90.52×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 194$13.380.9%32.81.09×
P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 252$12.870.7%42.11.88×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 169$12.861.0%33.20.95×
P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 138$12.701.2%63.91.55×
AUG | Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 140$12.641.2%13.80.26×
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 170$11.510.9%43.11.27×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 94$11.451.7%25.70.35×
G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 90$11.051.7%85.91.35×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE61 in 73$10.742.0%77.30.96×
P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 104$10.521.4%115.12.14×
StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 78$10.071.7%56.80.73×
G3SG1 | The Executioner (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 70$10.062.0%37.60.39×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 74$9.991.8%137.21.81×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 65$9.472.0%78.30.85×
P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 54$9.042.3%99.90.91×
G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 47$7.422.2%1011.40.88×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 38$7.372.6%2014.01.43×
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 34$6.512.6%1615.61.03×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 29$6.293.0%1918.51.02×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 42$5.901.9%1512.81.17×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 33$5.032.1%1116.10.68×
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 37$4.751.7%1514.51.04×
P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 32$4.171.7%1916.51.15×
P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 34$4.121.7%1215.90.75×
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 45$4.001.2%1311.91.09×
AWP | Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 46$3.961.2%1711.71.46×
StatTrak™ AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 72$3.930.7%77.40.94×
AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 58$3.880.9%159.21.62×
AUG | Stymphalian (Well-Worn)weapon · 41 in 57$3.740.9%139.41.38×
USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified1 in 48$3.671.0%1211.21.07×
AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 39$3.651.3%1413.61.03×
P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 34$3.621.4%815.80.51×
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 28$3.051.5%2119.11.10×
P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 22$2.281.4%3224.21.32×
P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 16$1.531.3%2632.60.80×
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 13$1.371.4%4140.81.00×
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 13$1.211.3%3241.00.78×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/classified, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6Dawg$8.00$3.620.45x
G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6B0RAT$8.00$7.400.93x
AUG | Stymphalian (Well-Worn)weapon · 4B0RAT$8.00$3.730.47x
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedB0RAT$8.00$21.142.64x
AWP | Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedB0RAT$8.00$3.960.50x
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedB0RAT$8.00$1.210.15x
P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6B0RAT$8.00$3.750.47x
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedB0RAT$8.00$1.370.17x
AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryB0RAT$8.00$3.760.47x
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classifiedB0RAT$8.00$3.060.38x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.07%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC$8.0092.07%77
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$8.0092.09%77
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$8.0092.00%77
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$8.0092.00%77
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$8.0092.06%77
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$8.0092.00%77
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$8.0092.00%77
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$8.0092.06%77
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$8.0092.10%77
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$8.0092.00%77
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$8.0092.00%77
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$8.0092.06%77
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$8.0092.01%77
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$8.0092.00%77
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$8.0092.09%77
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$8.0092.00%77
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$8.0092.00%77
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$8.0092.03%77
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$8.0092.00%77
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$8.0092.03%77
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$8.0092.07%77
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$8.0092.07%77
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$8.0092.00%77
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$8.0092.03%77
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$8.0092.06%77
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$8.0092.05%77
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$8.0092.00%77
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$8.0092.04%77
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$8.0092.00%77
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$8.0092.04%77
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed4 1.8%Classified 2.1%classified 61.4%#d32ee6 11.0%pink 6.5%Legendary 15.8%#D32CE6 1.4%best hit —