Danger Zone Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $4.41 from 91 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.43%

42 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

40 openings · below min

30 days

42 openings · below min

since tracking started

42 openings · below min

-0.5%73.3%147.0%

Small sample. 42 openings and 6.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	52.97%±93.1	—	odds
7d	40	101.06%±38.5	—	odds
30d	42	101.43%±37.6	—	odds
All	42	101.43%±37.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values91 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$70.42	0.2%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$63.44	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 3,704	$60.93	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,556	$58.97	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$58.25	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$56.92	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$51.81	0.9%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$49.18	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$48.45	1.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$47.03	1.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$46.54	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$45.80	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$45.51	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 385	$44.45	2.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 422	$31.93	1.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 235	$31.45	3.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 217	$19.81	2.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 140	$18.63	3.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 149	$17.41	2.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 114	$14.97	3.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 146	$14.92	2.3%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 100	$13.53	3.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 111	$13.40	2.7%	0	0.4	—
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 106	$12.96	2.8%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$9.61	2.7%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$9.33	2.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$8.20	2.8%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 52	$7.70	3.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 85	$7.56	2.0%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 61	$7.19	2.7%	2	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$6.75	2.1%	2	0.6	—
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 98	$6.43	1.5%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 83	$5.93	1.6%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$5.81	1.9%	0	0.6	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$5.38	1.9%	0	0.7	—
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 86	$5.23	1.4%	0	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 126	$5.16	0.9%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$5.11	1.3%	2	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 152	$5.06	0.8%	1	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 137	$4.99	0.8%	2	0.3	—
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 141	$4.98	0.8%	0	0.3	—
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 119	$4.75	0.9%	0	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 92	$4.66	1.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$4.60	1.5%	1	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$4.51	1.7%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 74	$4.32	1.3%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 51	$3.83	1.7%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 45	$3.36	1.7%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$3.31	2.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$2.97	1.9%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 34	$2.97	2.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$2.84	1.6%	0	1.0	0.00×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$2.69	1.2%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$2.34	1.2%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$2.17	1.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 38	$2.12	1.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$1.97	1.2%	1	1.1	0.89×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$1.90	0.9%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 52	$1.75	0.8%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 48	$1.67	0.8%	1	0.9	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$1.56	0.7%	3	0.8	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$1.30	0.7%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$1.30	0.6%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 56	$1.29	0.5%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$1.23	0.5%	0	0.8	—
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$1.16	0.5%	0	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$1.03	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 95	$1.03	0.2%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$1.01	0.3%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$0.96	0.3%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 86	$0.96	0.3%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$0.92	0.2%	0	0.5	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 117	$0.87	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Signal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$0.78	0.2%	2	0.4	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$0.75	0.2%	0	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$0.66	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$0.66	0.2%	1	0.5	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$0.61	0.2%	3	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.55	0.1%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 97	$0.54	0.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 109	$0.36	0.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 106	$0.35	0.1%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 142	$0.33	0.1%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 121	$0.32	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 532	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 526	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 337	$0.29	0.0%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 331	$0.29	0.0%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 524	$0.28	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 500	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 391	$0.21	0.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/dangerzone, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedDODO$4.79$0.610.13x10h

StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDODO$4.79$2.050.43x10h

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedгусар$4.79$7.101.48x11h

MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedpoizn$4.79$1.400.29x11h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedKapitein$4.79$2.350.49x13h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specDubasenko_08$4.79$3.840.80x17h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffGelik$4.79$0.410.09x17h

Galil AR | Signal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedДжоник меньший$4.79$0.800.17x1d

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedгей$4.79$6.191.29x1d

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Scavenger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FFгей$4.79$1.650.34x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.79	92.03%	91
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.79	92.08%	91
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.79	92.10%	91
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.79	91.99%	91
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.79	92.04%	91
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.79	92.05%	91
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.79	92.08%	91
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.79	92.06%	91
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.79	92.01%	91
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.79	92.04%	91
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.79	92.09%	91
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	91

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 18.2%#d32ee6 0.9%Legendary 3.7%milspec 6.2%restricted 44.9%mil spec 9.5%#8847ff 2.4%violet 4.9%Restricted 2.9%#8847FF 2.1%Mil Spec Grade 3.2%#4b69ff 0.3%best hit —