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Dead Man's Drop

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$2.39
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $2.20 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.21%
40.9K openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
91.57%±3.016,723 openings
7 days
91.39%±1.3635.4K openings
30 days
91.21%±1.2640.9K openings
since tracking started
91.21%±1.2640.9K openings
88.0%91.5%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h6,72391.57%±3.01−0.3σodds
7d35.4K91.39%±1.36−0.9σodds
30d40.9K91.21%±1.26−1.2σodds
All40.9K91.21%±1.26−1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Paracord Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · Covert1 in 9,091$64.670.3%44.50.89×
★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 5,263$51.720.4%137.81.67×
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$41.710.2%224.15.37×
AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 9,091$35.930.2%424.59.32×
M4A4 | Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 5,882$26.040.2%967.013.79×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 89$21.3510.9%157460.70.34×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 154$15.354.5%308265.31.16×
P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 94$11.655.6%413434.90.95×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 62$5.934.3%707655.61.08×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 50$4.243.9%877826.31.06×
AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 37$3.814.7%1,1821103.91.07×
MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 34$3.684.9%1,1881197.70.99×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 38$3.424.1%9371072.40.87×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 69$3.372.2%740596.21.24×
AWP | Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 68$3.252.2%596602.30.99×
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 65$3.132.2%660632.21.04×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 56$3.052.5%712735.80.97×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 43$2.923.1%876947.10.92×
AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 47$2.402.3%970872.61.11×
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 39$2.362.7%1,1631042.51.12×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 29$2.053.2%1,2931406.10.92×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 26$2.033.5%1,4061572.80.89×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$1.802.5%1,2601248.11.01×
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon1 in 28$1.682.7%1,3251440.90.92×
Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 34$1.622.2%1,2921211.21.07×
CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 27$1.552.6%1,5751492.91.05×
M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 29$1.492.4%1,4641435.21.02×
M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 29$1.342.1%1,6141388.91.16×
SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 24$1.272.4%1,6061703.40.94×
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 22$1.192.5%1,9251874.61.03×
Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 18$1.072.8%2,2192327.40.95×
M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 17$0.902.4%2,2892359.40.97×
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 15$0.862.6%2,7582759.01.00×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 12$0.642.5%3,4033555.00.96×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 11$0.542.2%3,8553698.71.04×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/dead-mans-drop-helloween, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restrictedfloreszz$2.39$1.590.67x
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restrictedfloreszz$2.39$2.060.86x
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluefloreszz$2.39$0.530.22x
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareCARCAHİL ADAM$2.39$0.630.26x
AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedya etot$2.39$2.360.99x
SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedya etot$2.39$1.280.54x
M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffReal-Punisher$2.39$1.330.56x
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffSayfilich$2.39$2.010.84x
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueya etot$2.39$0.530.22x
M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSayfilich$2.39$0.900.38x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$2.3992.00%35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$2.3992.00%35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$2.3992.00%35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$2.3992.09%35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$2.3992.08%35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$2.3992.09%35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$2.3992.00%35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$2.3992.00%35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$2.3992.00%35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$2.3992.01%35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$2.3992.00%35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$2.3992.00%35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$2.3992.00%35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$2.3992.00%35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$2.3992.00%35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$2.3992.00%35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$2.3992.01%35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$2.3992.00%35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$2.3992.09%35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$2.3992.00%35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$2.3992.00%35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$2.3992.00%35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$2.3992.00%35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$2.3992.00%35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$2.3992.00%35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$2.3992.08%35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$2.3992.00%35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$2.3992.00%35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$2.3992.00%35
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC$2.3992.00%35
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.0%classified 3.8%uncommon 4.2%pink 15.4%Legendary 1.6%restricted 18.6%#8847ff 17.0%Restricted 3.4%Rare 14.4%mil spec 5.8%milspec 6.7%blue 9.0%best hit —