DeLorean

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$1.29
Advertised RTP
91.25%
EV $1.18 from 134 items
Observed RTP, 30d
108.20%
14.5K openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
108.16%±7.551,882 openings
7 days
108.16%±2.8513.1K openings
30 days
108.20%±2.7114.5K openings
since tracking started
108.20%±2.7114.5K openings
90.5%103.5%116.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.97% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.49% – 110.90%, 14,500 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,882108.16%±7.55+4.5σodds
7d13.1K108.16%±2.85+11.9σodds
30d14.5K108.20%±2.71+12.5σodds
All14.5K108.20%±2.71+12.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values134 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 7,143$92.211.1%12.00.49×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$46.800.8%42.81.45×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$45.930.6%12.30.43×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$45.900.7%22.80.72×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$45.510.8%22.90.69×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 9,091$41.610.4%31.61.87×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 7,692$39.670.4%21.91.06×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 6,250$31.050.4%12.30.43×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 6,667$29.310.4%42.21.83×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,882$28.590.4%22.50.81×
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,556$27.630.4%22.60.76×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 5,556$27.390.4%32.61.15×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF1 in 5,000$27.010.5%32.91.03×
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$26.130.4%12.50.40×
AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 8,333$25.370.3%61.73.44×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 8,333$23.320.2%31.71.72×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$21.700.2%61.54.12×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$20.480.3%32.31.29×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 4,762$18.630.3%23.10.65×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,882$17.500.3%42.51.62×
StatTrak™ Nova | Clear Polymer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 5,000$17.200.3%32.91.03×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$16.780.2%42.21.83×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$15.640.3%02.80.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 5,263$15.350.2%22.80.72×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 8,333$14.350.1%21.71.15×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$13.420.2%52.91.72×
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$13.330.1%51.72.86×
AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 5,000$13.050.2%42.91.37×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 5,882$12.930.2%22.50.81×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 3,030$12.010.3%94.81.87×
MP7 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,439$11.790.4%56.00.84×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$11.490.2%32.81.09×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 1,667$11.360.6%18.70.11×
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,143$10.260.1%72.03.44×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 1,724$9.980.5%88.40.95×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 7,143$9.840.1%42.01.96×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 8,333$9.610.1%11.70.57×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$8.960.1%72.82.53×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 8,333$8.180.1%71.74.01×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 952$7.930.7%715.30.46×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,882$7.910.1%72.52.83×
MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 781$7.350.8%1518.60.81×
FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$6.880.1%102.93.44×
SG 553 | Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,639$6.370.3%138.91.46×
USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,235$6.200.4%1511.81.27×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,556$6.070.1%382.614.51×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 5,556$6.020.1%122.64.58×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,087$5.930.5%1713.41.27×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 2,000$5.840.2%197.32.61×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 588$5.380.8%2924.71.17×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$5.160.1%202.58.09×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 2,703$4.990.2%195.43.53×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 546$4.900.8%2026.60.75×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 266$4.841.5%2154.70.38×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 592$4.400.6%5324.62.16×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 372$4.351.0%3739.10.95×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 336$4.271.1%4043.40.92×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 351$3.830.9%4041.50.96×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 3,226$3.790.1%484.510.64×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 264$3.721.2%3655.10.65×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 820$3.590.4%3717.82.08×
USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 345$3.490.9%4542.21.07×
USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 752$3.440.4%5219.42.69×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 379$3.380.8%6838.41.77×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 272$3.251.0%8753.41.63×
Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 267$3.151.0%7054.61.28×
Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 297$3.080.9%8949.01.81×
FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 251$2.931.0%8057.91.38×
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 256$2.901.0%7856.91.37×
SG 553 | Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 193$2.751.2%9775.41.29×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 177$2.681.3%10382.41.25×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 137$2.641.6%95106.40.89×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 238$2.630.9%6661.31.08×
SG 553 | Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted1 in 183$2.541.2%10979.41.37×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 142$2.451.5%165102.61.61×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 112$2.411.8%108129.60.83×
Nova | Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 95$2.372.1%172152.91.12×
USP-S | Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 110$2.311.8%175132.01.33×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet1 in 92$2.122.0%187158.31.18×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 78$1.902.1%237185.81.28×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 77$1.852.0%244188.91.29×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 62$1.772.4%254235.01.08×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 59$1.732.5%273245.01.11×
P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 96$1.661.5%290151.81.91×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 73$1.441.7%255199.21.28×
P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 65$1.411.8%228223.81.02×
P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 54$1.372.2%293271.71.08×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 52$1.322.2%247278.80.89×
SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 83$1.311.3%282174.61.62×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 63$1.231.7%253229.61.10×
SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 62$1.181.6%303236.31.28×
USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 54$1.161.8%303268.01.13×
MAG-7 | Sonar (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 47$1.051.9%312309.31.01×
USP-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 48$0.871.5%393300.81.31×
G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · 11 in 40$0.871.8%413361.91.14×
USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 45$0.801.5%481323.91.49×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 36$0.791.9%497401.51.24×
USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 43$0.751.5%409340.81.20×
G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · 11 in 55$0.731.1%398264.41.51×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 70$0.690.8%302208.71.45×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 63$0.660.9%344229.91.50×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 68$0.630.8%300215.41.39×
USP-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 58$0.610.9%346250.41.38×
USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 60$0.570.8%243244.30.99×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 75$0.550.6%271192.81.41×
Nova | Exo (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 66$0.530.7%267218.81.22×
Nova | Exo (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 60$0.520.7%245242.61.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 87$0.510.5%236168.21.40×
MAG-7 | Sonar (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 90$0.500.5%279160.81.74×
MAG-7 | Sonar (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 89$0.490.5%214163.81.31×
Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 90$0.460.4%254160.91.58×
StatTrak™ Nova | Exo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 83$0.450.5%215174.91.23×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Decommissioned (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 76$0.440.5%187192.50.97×
FAMAS | Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 64$0.430.6%246227.31.08×
StatTrak™ Nova | Exo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 77$0.360.4%233187.81.24×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Sonar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 77$0.350.4%281188.71.49×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Decommissioned (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 62$0.350.5%291234.01.24×
StatTrak™ AUG | Triqua (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 62$0.340.5%36235.10.15×
StatTrak™ Nova | Exo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 62$0.340.5%186234.30.79×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 54$0.330.5%306268.01.14×
Glock-18 | Off World (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 88$0.320.3%194164.71.18×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 83$0.270.3%0175.50.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 90$0.270.3%93161.70.58×
StatTrak™ AUG | Triqua (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 72$0.250.3%0201.80.00×
StatTrak™ AUG | Triqua (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 63$0.250.3%0230.50.00×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 64$0.240.3%0228.00.00×
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 62$0.190.3%0233.40.00×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 71$0.170.2%0206.20.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 63$0.160.2%0231.20.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 62$0.160.2%0234.10.00×
StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 55$0.150.2%8262.80.03×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 62$0.150.2%0233.10.00×
StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 72$0.140.2%0202.40.00×
StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 82$0.140.1%45176.50.25×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/delorean, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.25%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$1.2991.25%134
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$1.2990.30%134
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$1.2991.10%134
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$1.2990.96%134
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$1.2991.00%134
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$1.2991.18%134
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$1.2991.16%134
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$1.2991.11%134
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$1.2990.48%134
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$1.2991.50%134
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$1.2990.92%134
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$1.2991.23%134
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$1.2990.76%134
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$1.2990.67%134
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$1.2990.43%134
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$1.2990.32%134
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$1.2990.76%134
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$1.2990.88%134
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$1.2989.86%134
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$1.2990.80%134
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$1.2990.69%134
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$1.2990.55%134
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$1.2991.41%134
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$1.2990.58%134
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$1.2991.39%134
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$1.2990.79%134
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$1.2990.71%134
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$1.2990.97%134
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$1.2991.20%134
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$1.2991.05%134
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 4.3%classified 0.4%covert 0.1%red 0.0%Restricted 5.1%Classified 0.2%restricted 15.9%#8847FF 0.0%pink 0.0%milspec 36.4%Legendary 0.0%violet 6.5%#8847ff 3.3%Mythical 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 1.7%mil spec 9.4%#4b69ff 8.7%Rare 2.0%blue 3.2%best hit —