Dennyyr

A case on GGDROP (partners), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $27.60 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.36%

568 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95 openings · below min

7 days

91.38%±10.26389 openings

30 days

92.36%±8.42568 openings

since tracking started

92.36%±8.42568 openings

68.0%89.3%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	95	89.34%±20.5	—	odds
7d	389	91.38%±10.3	−0.1σ	odds
30d	568	92.36%±8.42	+0.1σ	odds
All	568	92.36%±8.42	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 568 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$628	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 6,250	$221	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 244	$204	3.0%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 334	$189	2.0%	2	1.7	1.18×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 513	$175	1.2%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 752	$154	0.7%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 372	$134	1.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$132	0.4%	2	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 317	$128	1.5%	4	1.8	2.24×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 334	$119	1.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$107	0.3%	3	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 571	$106	0.7%	0	1.0	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 326	$103	1.1%	2	1.7	1.15×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 350	$102	1.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 549	$98.54	0.6%	1	1.0	0.97×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 855	$98.23	0.4%	1	0.7	—
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 317	$96.86	1.1%	1	1.8	0.56×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 296	$95.38	1.2%	1	1.9	0.52×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 602	$94.28	0.6%	2	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 355	$93.65	1.0%	1	1.6	0.62×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 232	$90.45	1.4%	3	2.4	1.23×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 269	$88.83	1.2%	5	2.1	2.37×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 222	$86.24	1.4%	2	2.6	0.78×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 225	$81.56	1.3%	1	2.5	0.40×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 162	$70.72	1.6%	4	3.5	1.14×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 120	$67.34	2.0%	6	4.7	1.26×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$66.95	2.0%	3	4.7	0.63×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 112	$63.94	2.1%	12	5.1	2.37×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 153	$60.61	1.4%	5	3.7	1.34×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$57.17	1.3%	1	3.6	0.27×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 113	$54.22	1.7%	3	5.0	0.60×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 124	$52.16	1.5%	7	4.6	1.53×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 130	$50.70	1.4%	4	4.4	0.92×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 127	$50.05	1.4%	6	4.5	1.34×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 165	$48.40	1.1%	6	3.4	1.75×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 180	$47.72	1.0%	4	3.2	1.27×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 185	$46.99	0.9%	3	3.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 141	$46.78	1.2%	2	4.0	0.50×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 174	$46.02	1.0%	6	3.3	1.84×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 136	$45.78	1.2%	7	4.2	1.67×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$45.30	1.1%	2	4.0	0.50×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 117	$44.32	1.4%	5	4.8	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 114	$44.10	1.4%	6	5.0	1.20×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$41.52	1.8%	3	6.8	0.44×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 69	$39.37	2.1%	8	8.3	0.97×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$39.03	2.5%	5	10.1	0.50×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$36.02	2.7%	10	11.9	0.84×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$34.11	2.8%	13	12.7	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$28.85	2.6%	20	14.2	1.41×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$28.68	3.2%	14	17.3	0.81×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 30	$24.08	2.9%	14	18.9	0.74×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$19.66	2.7%	26	21.8	1.19×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 30	$19.37	2.3%	19	18.8	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 24	$18.45	2.8%	14	23.9	0.59×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 27	$17.82	2.4%	20	20.8	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$17.52	1.5%	19	13.1	1.45×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 36	$16.64	1.7%	16	15.7	1.02×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$15.04	1.6%	13	17.1	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$11.62	1.5%	18	20.3	0.89×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$11.36	1.8%	39	25.0	1.56×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$11.35	2.0%	17	27.2	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$11.07	2.0%	24	27.9	0.86×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 28	$10.69	1.4%	20	20.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$7.24	1.2%	27	26.1	1.03×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$5.02	1.1%	38	34.7	1.10×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$4.84	1.3%	45	42.6	1.06×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/dennyyr, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkRenata$30.00$4.840.16x25m

UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkV3N0M$30.00$4.840.16x39m

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covertRenata$30.00$1033.44x43m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedRenata$30.00$28.680.96x43m

Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restrictedRenata$30.00$15.040.50x43m

AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertRenata$30.00$88.832.96x43m

Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil specRenata$30.00$28.850.96x43m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedRenata$30.00$28.680.96x46m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedKiemon101$30.00$7.210.24x59m

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertdipiensmain$30.00$33.971.13x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$30.00	92.01%	66
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$30.00	92.08%	66
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$30.00	92.09%	66
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$30.00	91.99%	66
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$30.00	92.07%	66
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$30.00	92.09%	66
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$30.00	92.07%	66
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$30.00	92.02%	66
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$30.00	92.09%	66
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$30.00	92.02%	66
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$30.00	92.06%	66
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$30.00	92.03%	66
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$30.00	92.09%	66
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$30.00	92.02%	66
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$30.00	92.05%	66
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	66
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$30.00	92.07%	66

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 18.6%epic 0.5%gold 0.3%classified 20.8%rare 5.5%covert knife 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 0.4%extraordinary 2.3%uncommon 4.1%red 0.6%milspec 0.6%mil spec 10.5%restricted 15.2%#d32ee6 3.3%Classified 3.6%pink 13.6%best hit —