Desert-Eagle

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $2.29 from 146 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.95%
6,350 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90.95%±14.84713 openings
7 days
92.71%±5.186,110 openings
30 days
92.95%±5.096,350 openings
since tracking started
92.95%±5.096,350 openings
75.5%91.0%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h71390.95%±14.8−0.1σodds
7d6,11092.71%±5.18+0.3σodds
30d6,35092.95%±5.09+0.4σodds
All6,35092.95%±5.09+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values146 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,350 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$2011.1%10.8—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1971.1%00.8—
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,556$95.300.7%01.10.00×
Desert Eagle | Pilot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$83.600.5%21.0—
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 9,091$83.340.4%00.7—
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 8,333$80.780.4%00.8—
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 8,333$74.600.4%00.8—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$70.790.3%00.6—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 10,000$66.330.3%20.6—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$62.080.4%11.0—
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$59.890.3%00.8—
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 9,091$51.810.2%10.7—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$50.060.3%00.8—
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$47.520.3%01.0—
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$45.900.4%31.22.49×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 6,250$43.990.3%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,667$43.460.3%11.0—
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 7,143$36.490.2%00.9—
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$35.790.3%21.31.57×
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 5,263$35.440.3%21.21.66×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$33.410.3%11.30.79×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 6,250$32.440.2%31.02.95×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 9,091$31.450.2%00.7—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 5,263$28.570.2%01.20.00×
Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 7,143$28.460.2%20.9—
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 9,091$28.100.1%10.7—
Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 6,667$27.400.2%01.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 3,846$26.660.3%11.70.61×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$23.550.1%00.7—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 9,091$22.700.1%30.7—
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 6,250$22.480.2%11.00.98×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$22.370.1%21.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 6,667$22.150.1%21.0—
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 4,348$21.850.2%01.50.00×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$21.760.1%00.8—
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$21.410.1%00.6—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$21.290.2%01.30.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,882$21.140.2%11.10.93×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,250$19.810.1%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$19.320.2%21.31.57×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$19.260.2%11.20.83×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 7,143$18.760.1%00.9—
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,887$18.540.4%23.40.59×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 2,564$17.910.3%22.50.81×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$17.410.1%30.8—
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 9,091$16.930.1%40.7—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 4,762$14.920.1%41.33.00×
Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 1,786$14.710.4%33.60.84×
Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 6,250$14.280.1%21.01.97×
Desert Eagle | Night (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon1 in 476$14.081.3%713.30.52×
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 1,493$13.370.4%74.31.65×
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 613$13.000.9%610.40.58×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$12.940.1%80.8—
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 3,704$12.020.1%111.76.42×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 1,010$11.940.5%106.31.59×
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 3,125$11.380.2%132.06.40×
Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 633$11.270.8%1610.01.59×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 255$9.331.6%2424.90.96×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 202$9.041.9%3931.41.24×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 376$8.160.9%2816.91.66×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 197$7.791.7%5132.21.58×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 195$7.471.7%5232.51.60×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 140$6.952.2%3645.40.79×
Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 169$6.861.8%5037.51.33×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 130$6.752.3%3948.80.80×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 102$5.932.5%5862.10.93×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 124$5.812.0%6851.11.33×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 92$5.712.7%8569.21.23×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 79$5.112.8%6180.80.75×
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 73$4.772.9%9487.41.08×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 66$4.523.0%6796.80.69×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 57$4.363.4%95112.00.85×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 51$3.903.4%113125.50.90×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 48$3.563.3%115132.90.87×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 45$2.672.6%146141.51.03×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 36$2.593.1%169174.70.97×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 34$2.292.9%157187.00.84×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 33$2.102.8%137191.60.71×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 58$2.061.6%162110.11.47×
Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 61$2.021.4%82103.60.79×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec1 in 78$1.991.1%11581.11.42×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 139$1.970.6%7045.71.53×
Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 139$1.970.6%7445.71.62×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 122$1.910.7%6052.31.15×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 120$1.890.7%5652.91.06×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 155$1.880.5%7341.01.78×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 89$1.800.9%5771.70.80×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 100$1.730.8%9363.81.46×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 94$1.680.8%7767.51.14×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 70$1.581.0%8990.20.99×
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 73$1.440.9%11487.01.31×
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight1 in 77$1.420.8%6782.80.81×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 75$1.410.8%9385.01.09×
Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 81$1.410.8%5978.50.75×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 76$1.370.8%6083.60.72×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 167$1.310.3%6238.01.63×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 198$1.300.3%7132.02.22×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 248$1.300.2%5825.72.26×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 114$1.290.5%7055.91.25×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 166$1.280.3%5038.41.30×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 170$1.270.3%4737.41.26×
Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 180$1.240.3%6835.21.93×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 106$1.230.5%4759.60.79×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 136$1.230.4%5446.81.15×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 121$1.190.4%4952.50.93×
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 86$1.130.6%6773.70.91×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 96$1.100.5%9966.21.50×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 73$1.080.6%9587.21.09×
Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 82$1.080.6%4377.80.55×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 74$0.970.6%10385.61.20×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 83$0.960.5%6276.60.81×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 81$0.950.5%7678.20.97×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 59$0.840.6%96108.40.89×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 87$0.820.4%7473.41.01×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 74$0.780.5%6985.80.80×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 73$0.780.5%8487.10.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 74$0.780.5%7086.30.81×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 67$0.770.5%11294.41.19×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 115$0.690.3%7855.41.41×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 113$0.670.3%5156.30.91×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 90$0.660.3%1670.90.23×
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 78$0.640.4%7381.40.90×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 68$0.640.4%7893.50.83×
Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 111$0.630.2%14157.42.46×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 123$0.630.2%7951.61.53×
Desert Eagle | Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 99$0.530.2%5864.00.91×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 123$0.530.2%6851.81.31×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 105$0.510.2%5960.60.97×
Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 113$0.500.2%8456.11.50×
Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 11 in 92$0.500.2%9669.21.39×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 80$0.450.2%5979.10.75×
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 127$0.430.1%8649.91.72×
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 104$0.410.2%4760.80.77×
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 110$0.400.2%4558.00.78×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 99$0.400.2%7464.11.15×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 120$0.370.1%7752.81.46×
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 127$0.360.1%6750.11.34×
Desert Eagle | Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight1 in 135$0.340.1%4747.11.00×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 95$0.330.2%6466.90.96×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 121$0.310.1%4452.40.84×
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)weapon · 21 in 112$0.280.1%056.70.00×
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 143$0.280.1%1544.40.34×
Desert Eagle | Tilted (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 100$0.240.1%063.30.00×
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 108$0.200.1%059.00.00×
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 90$0.150.1%070.70.00×
Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 81$0.140.1%078.00.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/deserteagle, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$2.4992.00%146
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$2.4992.05%146
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$2.4992.00%146
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$2.4992.00%146
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$2.4992.00%146
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$2.4992.00%146
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$2.4992.00%146
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$2.4992.00%146
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$2.4992.00%146
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$2.4992.00%146
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$2.4992.00%146
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$2.4992.05%146
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$2.4992.00%146
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$2.4992.01%146
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$2.4992.00%146
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$2.4992.10%146
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$2.4992.01%146
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$2.4992.09%146
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$2.4992.03%146
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$2.4992.09%146
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$2.4992.00%146
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$2.4992.08%146
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$2.4992.00%146
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$2.4992.00%146
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$2.4992.01%146
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$2.4992.00%146
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$2.4992.00%146
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$2.4992.00%146
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$2.4992.00%146
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$2.4992.08%146
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.1%2 0.9%covert 0.1%restricted 20.9%classified 2.2%industrial 7.7%mil spec 13.3%Classified 0.0%Legendary 1.0%red 0.0%uncommon 0.0%light blue 0.0%Mythical 2.5%blue 2.5%Industrial Grade 0.2%#d32ee6 0.0%Uncommon 3.3%#8847ff 2.9%violet 3.3%milspec 14.1%Mil Spec Grade 4.7%Mil Spec 1.3%Restricted 1.0%blueLight 2.0%pink 2.7%Rare 3.8%#4b69ff 7.6%#5e98d9 1.0%best hit $206 (82.82x)