Dreams Nightmares Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$5.51

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $5.07 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.16%

175 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

90.28%±26.39172 openings

30 days

89.16%±26.16175 openings

since tracking started

89.16%±26.16175 openings

-0.5%97.8%196.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	39.67%±155.7	—	odds
7d	172	90.28%±26.4	−0.1σ	odds
30d	175	89.16%±26.2	−0.2σ	odds
All	175	89.16%±26.2	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 175 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 6,250	$100	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$73.91	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$73.64	0.2%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,220	$68.51	1.1%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$67.43	0.2%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$67.25	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$64.43	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 633	$64.26	2.0%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 161	$63.48	7.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 115	$63.04	10.9%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 189	$62.83	6.6%	1	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 103	$14.37	2.8%	7	1.7	4.11×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 59	$14.29	4.8%	1	3.0	0.34×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 42	$14.05	6.7%	4	4.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 32	$7.67	4.8%	2	5.5	0.36×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$7.47	2.5%	4	3.0	1.32×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 38	$7.40	3.8%	5	4.6	1.08×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$7.37	3.9%	3	4.7	0.64×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 132	$6.51	1.0%	2	1.3	1.51×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$6.46	1.2%	2	1.6	1.25×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$6.36	1.5%	0	2.1	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 68	$6.27	1.8%	1	2.6	0.39×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$6.25	1.3%	3	1.8	1.65×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 108	$6.10	1.1%	2	1.6	1.23×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 85	$6.09	1.4%	8	2.1	3.88×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 59	$6.02	2.0%	5	3.0	1.69×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 54	$5.99	2.2%	4	3.2	1.24×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 47	$5.86	2.4%	7	3.7	1.89×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$5.75	2.9%	7	4.5	1.57×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 35	$4.58	2.6%	5	5.0	0.99×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$3.23	2.8%	13	7.6	1.70×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 17	$2.51	2.8%	11	10.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$2.15	3.1%	20	12.8	1.57×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 15	$2.07	2.7%	3	11.4	0.26×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$1.97	1.7%	2	7.5	0.26×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 32	$1.86	1.1%	2	5.4	0.37×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 44	$1.82	0.8%	6	4.0	1.51×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 43	$1.39	0.6%	4	4.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 38	$1.20	0.6%	4	4.6	0.87×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 34	$1.18	0.7%	7	5.1	1.37×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$0.96	0.6%	3	5.6	0.54×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$0.92	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 51	$0.92	0.4%	2	3.4	0.59×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 81	$0.89	0.2%	5	2.2	2.31×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 62	$0.77	0.2%	5	2.8	1.78×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 145	$0.76	0.1%	3	1.2	2.49×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 214	$0.75	0.1%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 147	$0.72	0.1%	4	1.2	3.37×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 148	$0.72	0.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 239	$0.67	0.1%	2	0.7	—
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 229	$0.64	0.1%	0	0.8	—
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 214	$0.63	0.1%	1	0.8	—
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 339	$0.62	0.0%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$0.62	0.0%	0	0.7	—
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 171	$0.61	0.1%	1	1.0	0.98×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 299	$0.60	0.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 289	$0.59	0.0%	0	0.6	—
Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 450	$0.58	0.0%	2	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 198	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.9	—
SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 217	$0.25	0.0%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 187	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.9	—
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 159	$0.19	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 157	$0.19	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 116	$0.19	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,724	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 641	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Foresight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 909	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 9,091	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 474	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 461	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.4	—
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 6,250	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 6,250	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 469	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 472	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 862	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 862	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 9,091	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 463	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.4	—
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 469	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.4	—
SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 885	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 840	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 5,882	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 7,692	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 833	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 465	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.4	—
MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 877	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 833	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 847	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 465	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.4	—
SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 885	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.2	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/dreams-nightmares, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedStuntCoordinator$5.51$6.111.11x19h

G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetStuntCoordinator$5.51$0.890.16x19h

Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · RareШуврентий Палыч$5.51$0.590.11x21h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeProGameRR121$5.51$1.190.22x22h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNexXxi$5.51$2.150.39x23h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet♿eBoBo♿$5.51$2.460.45x1d

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary♿eBoBo♿$5.51$14.532.64x1d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNexXxi$5.51$2.140.39x1d

G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)weapon · MythicalNexXxi$5.51$3.390.62x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalNexXxi$5.51$4.560.83x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$5.51	92.10%	90
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$5.51	92.06%	90
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$5.51	92.04%	90
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$5.51	92.05%	90
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$5.51	92.02%	90
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$5.51	92.10%	90
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$5.51	92.02%	90
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$5.51	91.99%	90
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$5.51	92.08%	90
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$5.51	92.05%	90
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$5.51	92.00%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.2%red 0.9%covert 1.4%Ancient 0.0%classified 9.7%Legendary 4.1%pink 5.9%#d32ee6 5.7%Classified 3.0%restricted 14.3%Mythical 19.8%violet 8.3%Restricted 9.5%#8847ff 5.4%Mil Spec Grade 5.4%Rare 0.7%#4b69ff 0.8%blue 0.5%mil spec 0.5%milspec 3.8%best hit —