Falchion Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.40

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $2.21 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.46%

602 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.51%±24.34102 openings

7 days

98.65%±11.49470 openings

30 days

100.46%±10.12602 openings

since tracking started

100.46%±10.12602 openings

60.5%85.8%111.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	102	85.51%±24.3	−0.5σ	odds
7d	470	98.65%±11.5	+1.1σ	odds
30d	602	100.46%±10.1	+1.6σ	odds
All	602	100.46%±10.1	+1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values125 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 602 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$69.90	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$50.05	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,556	$42.13	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$41.52	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$39.61	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,000	$39.18	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$39.08	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$36.02	0.5%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$34.11	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$29.10	0.4%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$27.18	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,818	$24.10	0.6%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 7,692	$22.84	0.1%	0	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$22.76	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,515	$22.37	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$19.52	0.5%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$18.79	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$17.57	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$16.42	0.2%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 621	$15.21	1.1%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$14.54	0.2%	2	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 676	$14.28	1.0%	3	0.9	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 649	$12.84	0.9%	0	0.9	—
Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 645	$12.41	0.9%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,471	$11.80	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 980	$10.96	0.5%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 562	$10.44	0.8%	2	1.1	1.87×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 485	$10.23	1.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 488	$9.73	0.9%	1	1.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 424	$9.67	1.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 606	$9.56	0.7%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 546	$9.09	0.8%	2	1.1	1.82×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 629	$8.86	0.6%	2	1.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,010	$8.77	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 300	$8.72	1.3%	2	2.0	1.00×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 481	$8.61	0.8%	2	1.3	1.60×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 806	$8.48	0.5%	3	0.7	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 326	$8.33	1.2%	1	1.8	0.54×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 329	$8.29	1.1%	2	1.8	1.09×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 379	$8.08	1.0%	3	1.6	1.89×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 228	$7.76	1.5%	3	2.6	1.14×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 193	$6.84	1.6%	4	3.1	1.28×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 148	$5.81	1.8%	4	4.1	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 128	$5.72	2.0%	3	4.7	0.64×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 113	$5.45	2.2%	8	5.3	1.50×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$5.23	1.7%	6	4.2	1.43×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 255	$4.95	0.9%	5	2.4	2.12×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 215	$4.92	1.0%	1	2.8	0.36×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$4.75	1.3%	6	3.8	1.59×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 249	$4.70	0.9%	3	2.4	1.24×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 242	$4.64	0.9%	5	2.5	2.01×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 215	$4.63	1.0%	1	2.8	0.36×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 234	$4.58	0.9%	2	2.6	0.78×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 204	$4.52	1.0%	5	2.9	1.70×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 132	$4.43	1.5%	4	4.6	0.88×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 168	$4.00	1.1%	2	3.6	0.56×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 121	$3.84	1.4%	5	5.0	1.01×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 103	$3.79	1.7%	3	5.9	0.51×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$3.73	1.9%	5	6.7	0.75×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 116	$3.44	1.3%	5	5.2	0.96×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 118	$3.32	1.3%	8	5.1	1.56×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 101	$3.21	1.4%	3	6.0	0.50×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 106	$3.15	1.3%	6	5.7	1.06×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 108	$3.10	1.3%	7	5.6	1.26×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 108	$2.98	1.3%	4	5.6	0.72×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 95	$2.78	1.3%	11	6.3	1.74×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 81	$2.75	1.5%	9	7.5	1.21×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ranger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 84	$2.66	1.4%	8	7.2	1.11×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$2.59	1.4%	4	7.3	0.55×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$2.31	1.1%	8	6.1	1.31×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 84	$2.26	1.2%	3	7.1	0.42×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$2.24	1.2%	4	7.3	0.55×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 91	$2.24	1.1%	7	6.6	1.05×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$2.15	1.3%	5	8.3	0.60×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$2.12	0.7%	2	4.6	0.43×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 103	$2.10	0.9%	5	5.8	0.86×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$1.94	0.9%	2	6.5	0.31×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 92	$1.89	0.9%	0	6.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 101	$1.89	0.8%	8	5.9	1.35×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 93	$1.84	0.9%	3	6.5	0.46×
P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$1.83	1.0%	4	7.4	0.54×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$1.76	0.7%	3	5.4	0.56×
P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 91	$1.65	0.8%	6	6.6	0.90×
USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 90	$1.65	0.8%	9	6.7	1.35×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$1.53	0.8%	5	6.8	0.74×
Nova \| Ranger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 76	$1.51	0.9%	8	7.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 79	$1.50	0.9%	7	7.7	0.91×
USP-S \| Torque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 79	$1.48	0.8%	3	7.6	0.39×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 120	$1.45	0.5%	3	5.0	0.60×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 110	$1.44	0.6%	5	5.5	0.91×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$1.32	0.6%	6	6.5	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 84	$1.32	0.7%	6	7.2	0.84×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 84	$1.29	0.7%	6	7.2	0.84×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$1.23	0.7%	6	7.7	0.78×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 67	$1.16	0.8%	8	9.0	0.89×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 73	$1.10	0.7%	11	8.2	1.34×
USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 68	$1.07	0.7%	9	8.9	1.01×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$1.05	0.6%	10	8.1	1.23×
P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 91	$1.03	0.5%	6	6.6	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 118	$1.01	0.4%	6	5.1	1.17×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 126	$0.99	0.4%	5	4.8	1.05×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$0.98	0.4%	8	4.8	1.66×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 121	$0.94	0.4%	7	5.0	1.41×
Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$0.93	0.4%	9	5.0	1.79×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 120	$0.93	0.4%	4	5.0	0.80×
Negev \| Loudmouth (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$0.92	0.4%	5	5.7	0.88×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 106	$0.89	0.4%	7	5.7	1.24×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 122	$0.86	0.3%	12	4.9	2.43×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 122	$0.86	0.3%	2	4.9	0.40×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 93	$0.82	0.4%	7	6.5	1.08×
USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 83	$0.79	0.4%	3	7.3	0.41×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Riot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 83	$0.78	0.4%	9	7.2	1.25×
USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 68	$0.77	0.5%	5	8.9	0.56×
P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$0.69	0.5%	6	8.7	0.69×
P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$0.67	0.4%	10	8.9	1.12×
UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 54	$0.66	0.5%	15	11.1	1.35×
P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 48	$0.62	0.6%	10	12.5	0.80×
P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 60	$0.60	0.5%	20	10.0	2.00×
UMP-45 \| Riot (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 60	$0.60	0.5%	14	10.1	1.39×
P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 54	$0.50	0.4%	13	11.2	1.16×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 46	$0.46	0.5%	11	13.0	0.84×
P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 45	$0.42	0.4%	11	13.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$0.36	0.5%	15	19.0	0.79×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Riot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 31	$0.36	0.5%	20	19.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 35	$0.35	0.5%	24	17.1	1.40×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/falchion, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBAR1NABA1$2.40$1.230.51x2h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedBAR1NABA1$2.40$0.920.38x2h

P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareBAR1NABA1$2.40$0.620.26x2h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeBAR1NABA1$2.40$2.741.14x2h

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffBAR1NABA1$2.40$0.460.19x2h

SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkMonTesCZ88$2.40$8.483.53x3h

P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffKatze im Panzer **********$2.40$0.600.25x4h

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecKatze im Panzer **********$2.40$0.360.15x4h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedKatze im Panzer **********$2.40$1.930.80x4h

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecKatze im Panzer **********$2.40$0.360.15x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.40	92.03%	125
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.40	92.03%	125
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	125
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.40	92.07%	125
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	125
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	125
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.40	92.07%	125
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.40	92.01%	125
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.40	92.01%	125
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.40	92.03%	125
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.40	92.05%	125
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.40	92.01%	125
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.40	92.01%	125
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	125
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.40	92.07%	125
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.8%covert 0.1%restricted 26.5%#d32ee6 0.0%red 0.0%classified 3.6%pink 1.3%mil spec 14.1%Classified 0.2%violet 1.0%Rare 2.2%Mythical 2.9%milspec 18.7%Restricted 2.0%Mil Spec Grade 6.8%#8847ff 3.7%#4b69ff 13.1%#4B69FF 0.9%blue 2.1%best hit —