Field Tested

A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$735.75

Advertised RTP

82.95%

EV $610.29 from 98 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.05%

46 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

40 openings · below min

30 days

46 openings · below min

since tracking started

46 openings · below min

26.0%102.3%178.5%

Small sample. 46 openings and 10.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	102.43%±75.6	—	odds
7d	40	82.24%±21.4	—	odds
30d	46	80.05%±19.9	—	odds
All	46	80.05%±19.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values98 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 64	$2,317	5.9%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$2,311	6.3%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 71	$2,106	4.9%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 70	$1,504	3.5%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 58	$1,263	3.6%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 48	$1,235	4.2%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$1,214	4.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 58	$1,096	3.1%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 68	$1,060	2.6%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 78	$1,027	2.2%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 74	$992	2.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 83	$953	1.9%	2	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 70	$907	2.1%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 78	$889	1.9%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$859	2.3%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 89	$849	1.6%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$804	2.0%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 79	$792	1.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 78	$791	1.7%	1	0.6	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 45	$662	2.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 65	$637	1.6%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 55	$627	1.9%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$627	1.9%	2	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 93	$596	1.0%	1	0.5	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 70	$587	1.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$586	1.2%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$581	0.8%	1	0.4	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 132	$566	0.7%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 176	$558	0.5%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 101	$549	0.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 77	$546	1.2%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 117	$515	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 90	$503	0.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 94	$496	0.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 81	$474	1.0%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 184	$468	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 126	$466	0.6%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 108	$465	0.7%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$447	0.6%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 72	$443	1.0%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 94	$442	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 174	$436	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 117	$435	0.6%	1	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 111	$429	0.6%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 202	$411	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 123	$406	0.5%	0	0.4	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 135	$404	0.5%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$393	0.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 130	$387	0.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 357	$385	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 92	$376	0.7%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 129	$368	0.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 175	$366	0.3%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 118	$366	0.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 360	$366	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 952	$357	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 114	$353	0.5%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 138	$353	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 66	$329	0.8%	0	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 124	$319	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$309	0.6%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife	1 in 104	$309	0.5%	1	0.4	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 129	$293	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$289	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 613	$283	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 159	$279	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 313	$279	0.1%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 775	$277	0.1%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 426	$277	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$265	0.0%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 862	$265	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 250	$262	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$257	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 348	$256	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 229	$253	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 151	$252	0.3%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 212	$240	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 314	$239	0.1%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 93	$233	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 101	$225	0.4%	0	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$218	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 141	$209	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 103	$201	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 291	$199	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$197	0.5%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$197	0.4%	1	0.5	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$194	0.0%	2	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 85	$174	0.3%	1	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 163	$167	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 74	$162	0.4%	0	0.6	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$155	0.4%	2	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 187	$153	0.1%	2	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 281	$149	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 76	$139	0.3%	0	0.6	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 88	$119	0.2%	2	0.5	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 49	$98.13	0.3%	2	0.9	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 54	$90.46	0.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 39	$70.12	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/field-tested, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertДаня вареник$736$2,3933.25x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertMiler$736$2,3803.23x2d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epicisfab.cs$736$1,6342.22x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epicLemo$736$1,6272.21x6d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedmfbenn7$736$1,2731.73x6d

StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epicLemo$736$1,2611.71x5d

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertcat$736$1,0851.48x15h

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertLEGOO$736$1,0501.43x6d

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinaryisfab.cs$736$9891.34x5d

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Factory New)gloves · ExtraordinaryMiler$736$9791.33x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertcat$736$1,0851.48x15h

AK-47 | Jet Set (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedcat$736$5880.80x15h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertScrowl$736$2020.27x1d

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryjohanka$736$1500.20x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedsercantall$736$4640.63x1d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covertДаня вареник$736$2,3933.25x1d

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knifeДаня вареник$736$3300.45x1d

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryMiler$736$98.830.13x2d

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertMiler$736$6380.87x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 82.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$736	82.95%	98
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$736	82.95%	98
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$736	82.92%	98
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$736	82.96%	98
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$736	83.00%	98
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$736	82.93%	98
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$736	82.92%	98
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$736	82.90%	98
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$736	82.90%	98
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$736	82.95%	98
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$736	82.96%	98
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$736	82.92%	98
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$736	82.93%	98
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$736	82.96%	98
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$736	82.93%	98
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$736	82.93%	98
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$736	82.94%	98
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$736	82.94%	98
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$736	82.92%	98
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$736	82.96%	98
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$736	82.91%	98
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$736	82.90%	98

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 2.4%covert 50.9%epic 2.9%classified 15.2%Extraordinary 1.2%extraordinary 13.5%covert knife 6.2%Covert 0.6%mil spec 0.9%Ancient 0.9%other 1.0%Classified 2.1%sunny 2.5%best hit $2,393 (3.25x)