Frankenstein

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$12.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $11.04 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.34%

6,404 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.77%±9.19881 openings

7 days

91.73%±3.695,369 openings

30 days

91.34%±3.406,404 openings

since tracking started

91.34%±3.406,404 openings

85.0%94.8%104.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	881	94.77%±9.19	+0.6σ	odds
7d	5,369	91.73%±3.69	−0.2σ	odds
30d	6,404	91.34%±3.40	−0.4σ	odds
All	6,404	91.34%±3.40	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,407 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 7,143	$293	0.4%	0	0.9	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 8,333	$248	0.3%	3	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$214	0.4%	8	1.2	6.57×
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$195	0.2%	7	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 252	$137	4.9%	14	25.4	0.55×
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 97	$101	9.4%	37	66.1	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$67.95	4.6%	55	47.5	1.16×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 89	$45.93	4.7%	104	72.0	1.44×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 47	$26.04	5.0%	151	136.2	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$21.76	5.0%	179	163.6	1.09×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$17.76	5.5%	211	218.3	0.97×
M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 30	$16.01	4.9%	185	215.0	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 50	$15.26	2.8%	177	129.2	1.37×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$14.61	3.5%	140	167.4	0.84×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$14.40	2.4%	85	116.0	0.73×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$14.00	2.8%	100	139.5	0.72×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 69	$13.56	1.8%	101	92.4	1.09×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 68	$11.65	1.6%	133	94.7	1.40×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$11.56	2.3%	149	142.1	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 37	$11.37	2.8%	136	174.6	0.78×
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$10.51	3.2%	178	218.2	0.82×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$9.13	1.9%	156	146.7	1.06×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$8.35	2.4%	202	201.2	1.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$8.32	2.5%	225	210.7	1.07×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$7.39	2.5%	220	241.7	0.91×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 30	$7.19	2.2%	211	213.1	0.99×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$7.15	2.2%	228	216.1	1.06×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$6.38	2.5%	299	278.8	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 28	$6.05	2.0%	345	232.6	1.48×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$5.39	2.1%	244	275.0	0.89×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 19	$5.20	2.5%	328	339.7	0.97×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$4.64	2.4%	401	360.1	1.11×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 15	$4.05	2.4%	391	420.3	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$3.57	2.3%	475	453.2	1.05×
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$2.38	2.0%	529	596.2	0.89×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/frankenstein-helloween, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalBABAYKA$12.00$4.540.38x33s

AWP | Duality (Factory New)weapon · pinkBABAYKA$12.00$10.610.88x43s

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · MythicalBABAYKA$12.00$5.160.43x52s

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalBABAYKA$12.00$4.540.38x1m

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalSayfilich$12.00$4.540.38x1m

Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspecmoNic$12.00$3.630.30x7m

AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedReal-Punisher$12.00$8.330.69x12m

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6Real-Punisher$12.00$15.381.28x14m

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6♛ 𝕂𝕖𝕟𝕥 ♛$12.00$15.381.28x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$12.00	92.02%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$12.00	92.01%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$12.00	92.05%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$12.00	92.01%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$12.00	92.09%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$12.00	92.03%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$12.00	92.01%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$12.00	91.99%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$12.00	92.07%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$12.00	92.01%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$12.00	92.05%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$12.00	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$12.00	92.05%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.3%gold 0.0%red 3.2%classified 11.4%pink 13.9%#d32ce6 2.0%#d32ee6 1.4%Legendary 2.7%restricted 17.9%Mythical 18.5%Mil Spec 3.6%blue 6.6%milspec 7.1%#4b69ff 9.3%best hit —