Ghost

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$24.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $22.08 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.43%

5,554 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.05%±8.82889 openings

7 days

90.34%±3.854,664 openings

30 days

91.43%±3.565,554 openings

since tracking started

91.43%±3.565,554 openings

75.5%85.5%95.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	889	85.05%±8.82	−1.5σ	odds
7d	4,664	90.34%±3.85	−0.8σ	odds
30d	5,554	91.43%±3.56	−0.3σ	odds
All	5,554	91.43%±3.56	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,572 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$568	0.5%	1	1.1	0.90×
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 8,333	$527	0.3%	1	0.7	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 9,091	$412	0.2%	4	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 312	$309	4.5%	11	17.9	0.62×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$277	0.2%	9	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$201	6.3%	34	38.4	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 90	$156	7.9%	52	62.2	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 1	1 in 70	$80.22	5.2%	68	79.8	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$56.41	4.1%	124	88.5	1.40×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$40.24	4.2%	115	129.0	0.89×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 46	$37.45	3.6%	173	119.9	1.44×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 32	$35.57	5.0%	131	173.2	0.76×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 34	$33.87	4.5%	108	163.9	0.66×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$33.82	2.2%	130	81.7	1.59×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$30.65	2.7%	73	109.9	0.66×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 69	$30.11	2.0%	97	80.6	1.20×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 58	$30.04	2.4%	91	96.6	0.94×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 45	$26.04	2.6%	132	123.7	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 63	$25.32	1.8%	146	88.6	1.65×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$23.21	2.5%	138	134.8	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$20.48	2.9%	156	173.1	0.90×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$20.22	2.9%	176	175.7	1.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 27	$16.85	2.9%	185	208.4	0.89×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$15.91	2.6%	181	203.4	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 27	$15.26	2.5%	200	204.5	0.98×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$14.61	2.8%	197	233.4	0.84×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$13.64	2.2%	197	201.2	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$12.48	2.1%	211	211.8	1.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 22	$11.65	2.4%	229	255.6	0.90×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$10.55	2.3%	323	267.7	1.21×
AWP \| Black Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$9.13	2.3%	340	311.9	1.09×
AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$9.06	2.3%	314	315.6	0.99×
AWP \| Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$8.49	2.7%	357	390.0	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$7.51	2.3%	423	382.1	1.11×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$5.25	1.9%	436	445.6	0.98×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/ghost-helloween, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covertヅDanielヅ$24.00$61025.43x7d

★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendaryBurryoi$24.00$53922.48x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redReal-Punisher$24.00$33.851.41x32m

Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New)weapon · mil specReal-Punisher$24.00$8.390.35x45m

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6уьу$24.00$15.380.64x59m

AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkуьу$24.00$10.410.43x59m

AWP | Black Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedno4ort$24.00$9.060.38x59m

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6no4ort$24.00$15.380.64x1h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedno4ort$24.00$20.370.85x1h

Glock-18 | Warhawk (Factory New)weapon · mil spec♠♠ Ｍυ❹𝐈４𝐤Ⓐ_Ŝ 💥★$24.00$8.390.35x1h

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkGustavoIsBack$24.00$15.600.65x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$24.00	92.01%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$24.00	92.10%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$24.00	92.02%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$24.00	92.09%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$24.00	92.00%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 12.6%legendary 0.0%gold 0.0%red 9.1%epic 1.1%rare 7.1%pink 19.3%classified 14.1%#d32ce6 3.7%restricted 5.6%Mythical 5.7%Rare 7.0%mil spec 6.9%milspec 8.0%best hit $610 (25.43x)