Jester

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$35.75

Advertised RTP

92.08%

EV $32.92 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.75%

6,923 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.43%±6.66819 openings

7 days

91.81%±2.495,882 openings

30 days

91.75%±2.296,923 openings

since tracking started

91.75%±2.296,923 openings

83.0%90.3%97.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	819	90.43%±6.66	−0.5σ	odds
7d	5,882	91.81%±2.49	−0.2σ	odds
30d	6,923	91.75%±2.29	−0.2σ	odds
All	6,923	91.75%±2.29	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,932 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 971	$305	1.0%	35	7.1	4.90×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 179	$232	3.9%	33	38.7	0.85×
★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 219	$206	2.9%	46	31.6	1.46×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 151	$183	3.7%	35	45.8	0.76×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 131	$161	3.7%	43	53.0	0.81×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 136	$144	3.2%	48	50.8	0.94×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 110	$97.02	2.7%	78	62.7	1.24×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 107	$96.43	2.7%	49	64.5	0.76×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$89.16	2.9%	57	73.2	0.78×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 77	$82.18	3.2%	78	89.6	0.87×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$75.73	1.7%	56	52.2	1.07×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 138	$75.16	1.7%	63	50.2	1.26×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$71.63	2.2%	50	69.5	0.72×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 118	$68.49	1.8%	51	59.0	0.86×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 218	$59.21	0.8%	49	31.8	1.54×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 122	$58.10	1.5%	46	57.0	0.81×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 88	$56.68	2.0%	75	79.0	0.95×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 105	$56.48	1.6%	51	66.1	0.77×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 228	$55.79	0.7%	46	30.4	1.52×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 186	$55.75	0.9%	60	37.4	1.61×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$54.51	0.8%	37	35.4	1.05×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 198	$52.91	0.8%	47	34.9	1.35×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 180	$51.87	0.9%	53	38.6	1.37×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Well-Worn)gloves · #eb4b4b	1 in 145	$50.71	1.1%	32	47.8	0.67×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 137	$49.86	1.1%	36	50.6	0.71×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$49.18	1.1%	55	50.5	1.09×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 126	$48.69	1.2%	59	54.8	1.08×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$46.54	1.1%	60	52.1	1.15×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$45.80	1.3%	67	65.6	1.02×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 75	$39.67	1.6%	75	91.9	0.82×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$39.41	1.5%	87	86.2	1.01×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 73	$38.33	1.6%	92	94.6	0.97×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 63	$37.91	1.8%	116	109.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 102	$36.32	1.1%	78	68.2	1.14×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 94	$36.16	1.2%	60	73.5	0.82×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 90	$33.87	1.1%	89	76.7	1.16×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$33.80	1.3%	87	89.4	0.97×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$33.53	1.3%	81	87.5	0.93×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 65	$31.96	1.5%	100	107.3	0.93×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 72	$30.26	1.3%	121	96.2	1.26×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$29.48	1.5%	154	119.2	1.29×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$27.98	1.7%	139	138.8	1.00×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 44	$27.59	1.9%	172	158.5	1.08×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$26.86	1.9%	167	162.1	1.03×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 37	$23.19	1.9%	214	189.4	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 35	$22.84	2.0%	150	199.4	0.75×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$21.50	2.3%	189	240.8	0.78×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$21.35	2.5%	279	272.2	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$20.69	2.3%	255	253.2	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$16.78	2.3%	299	308.5	0.97×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$14.50	2.2%	373	341.8	1.09×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$14.40	2.7%	392	421.4	0.93×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 13	$11.09	2.6%	533	526.1	1.01×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$6.28	1.5%	517	553.2	0.93×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$5.50	1.4%	618	585.9	1.05×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/jester, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertL4he$T$35.75$54.161.51x2m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkL4he$T$35.75$6.200.17x2m

AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertL4he$T$35.75$49.371.38x2m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkmoNic$35.75$6.200.17x3m

AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertL4he$T$35.75$46.211.29x6m

Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6moNic$35.75$11.020.31x7m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkBABAYKA$35.75$5.480.15x10m

Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkmoNic$35.75$20.510.57x15m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkmoNic$35.75$5.480.15x15m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedmoNic$35.75$31.830.89x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$35.75	92.08%	55
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$35.75	92.04%	55
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$35.75	92.05%	55
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$35.75	92.03%	55
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$35.75	92.03%	55
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$35.75	92.09%	55
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$35.75	92.09%	55
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$35.75	92.01%	55
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$35.75	92.07%	55
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$35.75	92.06%	55
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$35.75	92.05%	55
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$35.75	92.04%	55
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$35.75	92.09%	55
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$35.75	92.02%	55
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$35.75	92.00%	55

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.4%rare 4.6%epic 0.5%extraordinary 1.5%restricted 0.7%classified 29.1%gold 2.2%#eb4b4b 0.7%red 4.0%Classified 4.4%#d32ce6 9.0%Legendary 7.8%pink 20.1%best hit —