Labyrinth

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1.29

Advertised RTP

92.08%

EV $1.19 from 77 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.55%

16.8K openings, odds method

Variance

4.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

103.44%±11.601,237 openings

7 days

95.35%±3.2314.9K openings

30 days

94.55%±3.0416.8K openings

since tracking started

94.55%±3.0416.8K openings

91.0%103.3%115.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,237	103.44%±11.6	+1.9σ	odds
7d	14.9K	95.35%±3.23	+2.0σ	odds
30d	16.8K	94.55%±3.04	+1.6σ	odds
All	16.8K	94.55%±3.04	+1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 7,143	$74.84	0.9%	2	2.4	0.85×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$68.40	0.8%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,250	$67.82	0.9%	7	2.7	2.59×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$67.55	1.1%	5	3.2	1.56×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$58.59	0.8%	1	2.7	0.37×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,250	$57.89	0.8%	6	2.7	2.22×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$55.40	0.6%	1	2.0	0.49×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$39.69	0.6%	1	2.9	0.35×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$39.67	0.4%	5	1.9	2.70×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$35.64	0.5%	1	3.0	0.33×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 6,667	$34.45	0.4%	3	2.5	1.19×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$33.82	0.5%	5	2.7	1.85×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$33.73	0.5%	4	3.0	1.32×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$33.53	0.6%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$33.29	0.3%	5	2.0	2.47×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 8,333	$30.96	0.3%	2	2.0	0.99×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$14.13	0.1%	3	2.0	1.48×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$13.91	0.1%	6	1.7	3.56×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$13.87	0.2%	2	2.9	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$13.42	0.2%	3	2.4	1.27×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 6,250	$13.37	0.2%	3	2.7	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 5,000	$13.00	0.2%	2	3.4	0.59×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,250	$9.09	0.1%	2	2.7	0.74×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,556	$7.35	0.1%	5	3.0	1.65×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 6,250	$6.89	0.1%	9	2.7	3.34×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,263	$6.15	0.1%	18	3.2	5.62×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 690	$6.00	0.7%	26	24.5	1.06×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 532	$5.80	0.9%	18	31.7	0.57×
UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 233	$5.16	1.9%	30	72.5	0.41×
AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 10,000	$4.86	0.0%	32	1.7	18.98×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$4.78	0.1%	68	2.4	28.80×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$4.12	0.3%	61	16.2	3.77×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 366	$4.12	0.9%	44	46.0	0.96×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 287	$4.03	1.2%	54	58.9	0.92×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 275	$3.88	1.2%	62	61.4	1.01×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 147	$3.68	2.1%	69	115.0	0.60×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 164	$3.62	1.9%	49	102.7	0.48×
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 159	$3.47	1.8%	70	105.7	0.66×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 179	$3.45	1.6%	86	94.3	0.91×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 142	$3.29	1.9%	144	118.7	1.21×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 140	$3.22	1.9%	202	120.6	1.68×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 111	$3.03	2.3%	150	152.3	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 110	$2.96	2.3%	179	153.6	1.17×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 79	$2.72	2.9%	211	212.7	0.99×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$2.25	3.1%	249	272.0	0.92×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.83	3.1%	333	339.8	0.98×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$1.80	3.3%	324	363.6	0.89×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Delusion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 44	$1.62	3.1%	277	383.8	0.72×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$1.55	2.9%	318	376.9	0.84×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 78	$1.51	1.6%	339	217.2	1.56×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 67	$1.46	1.8%	335	252.6	1.33×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 83	$1.46	1.5%	288	202.2	1.42×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 73	$1.44	1.7%	277	230.9	1.20×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$1.38	1.5%	283	217.7	1.30×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 68	$1.36	1.7%	324	247.1	1.31×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 57	$1.32	1.9%	269	295.3	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$1.16	2.1%	368	355.3	1.04×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$1.12	2.2%	360	397.1	0.91×
P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 35	$1.03	2.4%	498	476.4	1.05×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$0.87	2.4%	414	541.7	0.76×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$0.81	2.1%	468	513.7	0.91×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 36	$0.81	1.9%	539	467.0	1.15×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$0.75	2.0%	589	527.7	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 36	$0.69	1.6%	561	474.2	1.18×
UMP-45 \| Delusion (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$0.67	1.4%	440	421.9	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 36	$0.64	1.5%	468	473.0	0.99×
P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 36	$0.62	1.5%	473	471.0	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$0.60	1.3%	373	437.1	0.85×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 35	$0.52	1.3%	700	483.8	1.45×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 31	$0.49	1.3%	395	542.0	0.73×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 26	$0.45	1.5%	764	658.4	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$0.44	1.5%	556	662.4	0.84×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 27	$0.43	1.3%	734	621.6	1.18×
P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 26	$0.42	1.4%	885	660.2	1.34×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 23	$0.40	1.5%	671	730.9	0.92×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$0.37	1.6%	449	865.8	0.52×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$0.32	1.8%	887	1124.7	0.79×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/labyrinth, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeNar$1.29$72.3356.07x5d

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifevictorikess$1.29$71.7055.58x5d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertsalze.$1.29$69.0253.50x4d

★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeІРКУТСЬКА ЧУМА$1.29$68.6753.23x4d

★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeV4NZ1LLA$1.29$68.2852.93x17h

★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeHEALER$1.29$68.2152.88x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife*T1u*$1.29$68.2152.88x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeHornet$1.29$67.9152.64x21h

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertmetsuki sutemi$1.29$67.2852.16x5d

★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeБЕТХАТХОЛ$1.29$67.0251.95x14h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Delusion (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specStihl$1.29$0.670.52x30m

MAC-10 | Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffStihl$1.29$0.460.36x30m

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedStihl$1.29$1.160.90x30m

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecStihl$1.29$0.440.34x30m

P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareStihl$1.29$0.620.48x30m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecStihl$1.29$0.530.41x30m

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violetStihl$1.29$1.361.05x30m

P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareStihl$1.29$0.620.48x30m

R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetStihl$1.29$0.750.58x30m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1.29	92.08%	77
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.29	92.01%	77
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1.29	92.01%	77
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.29	92.07%	77
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.29	92.10%	77
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1.29	92.08%	77
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1.29	92.03%	77
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1.29	92.02%	77
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1.29	92.01%	77
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1.29	92.02%	77
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1.29	92.10%	77
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.29	92.03%	77
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.29	92.09%	77
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	77

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 4.3%covert knife 0.0%covert 0.1%red 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 2.0%industrial 0.6%Industrial Grade 0.0%mil spec 13.4%#d32ee6 0.8%Mythical 0.0%Mil Spec 0.4%blue 0.0%restricted 22.8%pink 1.6%light blue 0.4%#8847ff 10.0%Mil Spec Grade 6.4%#4b69ff 5.2%Legendary 1.3%violet 5.8%Restricted 1.8%milspec 17.3%Rare 5.6%best hit $72.33 (56.07x)