M4A1-S

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$9.65
Advertised RTP
91.17%
EV $8.80 from 147 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.36%
1,609 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
81.82%±19.39271 openings
7 days
89.73%±10.751,391 openings
30 days
92.36%±9.711,609 openings
since tracking started
92.36%±9.711,609 openings
62.0%82.3%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h27181.82%±19.4−1.0σodds
7d1,39189.73%±10.8−0.3σodds
30d1,60992.36%±9.71+0.2σodds
All1,60992.36%±9.71+0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values147 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,611 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$2620.4%10.2—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$2530.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$2490.5%20.3—
M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic1 in 8,333$2340.3%00.2—
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$2180.4%00.3—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$2140.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$2100.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$2100.3%10.2—
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 7,143$2070.3%00.2—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$2030.3%00.2—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$2000.2%00.2—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$2000.4%00.3—
M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic1 in 7,143$1980.3%10.2—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1950.3%00.2—
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1950.4%00.3—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1930.4%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1930.4%00.3—
M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1890.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 10,000$1880.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1850.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 5,556$1810.4%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1510.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,846$1460.4%00.4—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1350.3%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,000$1340.3%00.3—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1330.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 5,556$1320.3%00.3—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1310.3%00.3—
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1300.2%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 6,667$1300.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1290.2%10.2—
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1280.2%00.2—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 8,333$1270.2%10.2—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,556$1260.3%00.3—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 5,882$1240.2%00.3—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 6,250$1230.2%00.3—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$1190.3%20.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1170.2%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 7,692$1140.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$1130.3%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1110.2%10.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1090.2%10.2—
M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,882$1060.2%00.3—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 2,500$99.080.5%00.6—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$96.750.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$92.110.2%10.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,143$86.650.1%10.2—
M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 8,333$80.410.1%00.2—
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$75.560.2%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 730$67.451.1%02.20.00×
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$66.270.1%00.2—
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$66.160.2%20.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$62.420.1%00.3—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,176$59.300.6%01.40.00×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$55.400.1%00.3—
M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 588$55.111.1%02.70.00×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 7,143$54.390.1%00.2—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 4,000$51.140.1%00.4—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 3,226$46.780.2%10.5—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 1,562$45.710.3%11.00.97×
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 649$44.770.8%22.50.80×
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$43.200.1%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,143$43.140.1%00.2—
M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,031$42.620.5%11.60.64×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$38.680.1%50.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 962$37.540.4%21.71.19×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 413$35.381.0%13.90.26×
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 1,099$33.870.4%11.50.68×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 441$33.690.9%13.70.27×
M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 667$33.340.6%22.40.82×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 405$31.950.9%24.00.50×
M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$31.190.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 4,762$30.980.1%20.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 752$28.250.4%32.11.40×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 413$27.570.8%63.91.53×
M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 339$27.410.9%44.80.84×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 926$27.390.3%31.71.72×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$27.090.0%30.2—
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 535$27.010.6%03.00.00×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 493$26.870.6%113.33.35×
M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 386$25.810.8%44.20.96×
M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 541$25.130.5%43.01.34×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,124$25.010.3%91.46.26×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 227$24.771.2%47.10.56×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 186$23.981.5%108.71.15×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 277$23.881.0%75.81.20×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 212$23.211.2%47.60.53×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 126$21.702.0%1312.81.01×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 130$20.481.8%1112.40.88×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 95$19.762.4%1217.00.71×
M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 92$19.362.4%2317.61.31×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 89$18.162.3%2618.11.44×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 82$14.352.0%1719.80.86×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 78$14.022.1%1620.80.77×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 70$13.872.3%2023.10.87×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 52$13.422.9%2631.10.84×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 107$13.271.4%2615.11.73×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 110$11.721.2%1814.61.23×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 104$11.641.3%1915.61.22×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 82$11.351.6%1719.70.86×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 70$11.271.8%1323.00.57×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 151$11.210.8%1510.71.40×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 99$10.791.2%1916.31.17×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 106$10.521.1%1815.31.18×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 81$10.381.5%1220.00.60×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 77$10.061.5%3120.91.49×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 69$9.661.6%2423.31.03×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 65$8.281.5%2725.11.08×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 49$8.271.9%2633.10.79×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 46$7.912.0%4135.21.16×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 41$7.252.0%3239.00.82×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 60$7.121.4%2627.20.96×
M4A1-S | Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 47$6.931.7%3834.31.11×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 44$6.071.6%3436.40.93×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 52$6.021.3%2531.20.80×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 46$5.731.4%3435.00.97×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 37$5.561.7%3243.60.73×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 63$5.190.9%4425.51.73×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 52$4.901.1%2131.40.67×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 49$4.731.1%5133.21.54×
M4A1-S | Briefing (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 44$4.591.2%3136.60.85×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 47$4.511.1%4334.31.26×
M4A1-S | Briefing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 48$4.411.0%4833.61.43×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 41$4.271.2%3739.60.94×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 35$3.381.1%4645.71.01×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 31$3.251.2%4852.20.92×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet1 in 26$2.431.1%5362.70.85×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 22$1.971.0%6673.50.90×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 29$1.800.7%6456.31.14×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 26$1.770.8%4963.30.77×
M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 39$1.240.4%2441.00.59×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 60$1.220.2%4626.81.72×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 65$1.200.2%3424.91.37×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 51$0.930.2%2131.70.66×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 124$0.750.1%1013.10.77×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 109$0.720.1%2814.81.89×
M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 104$0.700.1%915.50.58×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 162$0.530.0%410.00.40×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 424$0.520.0%93.82.36×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 296$0.510.0%115.52.01×
M4A1-S | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 216$0.490.0%37.50.40×
M4A1-S | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 680$0.410.0%12.40.42×
M4A1-S | VariCamo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 662$0.350.0%42.41.64×
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 233$0.320.0%47.00.58×
M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 621$0.320.0%12.60.38×
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 833$0.190.0%01.90.00×
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 459$0.170.0%03.50.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/m4a1s, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.17%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$9.6591.17%147
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$9.6591.44%147
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$9.6591.33%147
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$9.6591.50%147
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$9.6591.59%147
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$9.6591.55%147
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$9.6591.34%147
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$9.6591.12%147
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$9.6591.56%147
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$9.6590.90%147
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$9.6591.37%147
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$9.6591.07%147
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$9.6591.00%147
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$9.6591.40%147
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$9.6591.74%147
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$9.6591.75%147
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$9.6591.82%147
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$9.6591.11%147
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$9.6591.13%147
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$9.6591.06%147
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$9.6591.66%147
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$9.6591.15%147
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$9.6590.98%147
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$9.6591.43%147
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$9.6591.51%147
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$9.6591.84%147
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$9.6591.92%147
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$9.6591.43%147
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$9.6591.24%147
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$9.6591.45%147
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.6%epic 0.0%classified 15.8%Covert 0.0%Classified 0.1%Ancient 0.0%red 0.1%Mythical 15.3%industrial 1.4%restricted 13.8%mil spec 9.1%rare 0.2%pink 5.2%Mil Spec Grade 1.1%Legendary 0.9%milspec 3.2%violet 11.0%#8847ff 10.8%Rare 2.3%#d32ee6 2.1%blue 2.3%Restricted 3.9%Uncommon 0.4%Industrial Grade 0.2%best hit —