M4A4

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$7.21
Advertised RTP
91.31%
EV $6.58 from 148 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.75%
1,115 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
93.26%±24.93160 openings
7 days
89.71%±11.30804 openings
30 days
90.75%±9.571,115 openings
since tracking started
90.75%±9.571,115 openings
67.5%93.3%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h16093.26%±24.9+0.1σodds
7d80489.71%±11.3−0.3σodds
30d1,11590.75%±9.57−0.1σodds
All1,11590.75%±9.57−0.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values148 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,556$2920.8%00.2—
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$2800.6%00.2—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$2360.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 7,692$2040.4%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 6,250$1570.4%00.2—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 7,143$1440.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1360.4%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1340.4%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1330.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 10,000$1320.2%00.1—
M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1300.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 10,000$1260.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,882$1260.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1190.2%00.1—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$1170.3%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1140.3%00.2—
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$1120.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1110.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 5,000$1020.3%00.2—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1010.3%00.2—
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 8,333$99.820.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$97.890.2%10.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$96.830.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$95.080.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 4,545$94.000.3%00.2—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$93.850.2%10.1—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$93.710.3%00.2—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$92.680.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$90.460.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$89.510.2%10.2—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$89.090.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$87.440.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$86.630.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$86.200.2%00.2—
M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$85.350.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$84.240.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$83.150.2%20.1—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 7,143$80.080.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$80.020.2%20.2—
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$79.640.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 9,091$76.720.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$73.040.2%00.2—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 4,348$71.830.3%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$70.650.1%10.1—
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$68.200.2%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,000$67.900.2%00.2—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$62.830.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 8,333$60.350.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 9,091$60.080.1%10.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$59.890.2%00.2—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 2,381$58.850.4%10.5—
M4A4 | Global Offensive (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 5,882$52.310.1%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$51.870.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$51.450.2%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$47.970.1%10.1—
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 8,333$47.750.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert1 in 6,667$47.190.1%00.2—
M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 6,250$42.970.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 2,703$42.800.2%00.4—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$41.690.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$37.130.1%00.2—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,250$36.570.4%00.9—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 602$35.920.9%01.90.00×
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 2,703$35.540.2%00.4—
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 7,143$35.320.1%10.2—
M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 935$35.240.6%01.20.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$34.680.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 4,167$34.450.1%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,174$34.220.2%00.5—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 4,348$33.920.1%00.3—
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert1 in 5,882$33.720.1%00.2—
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 1,351$33.410.4%10.8—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$33.290.1%20.2—
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 7,692$33.110.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 3,125$33.060.2%00.4—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 5,556$32.880.1%00.2—
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$31.920.1%20.1—
M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 7,692$31.620.1%10.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$30.930.1%00.2—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 602$30.650.8%11.90.54×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 6,250$30.400.1%20.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 508$28.660.9%32.21.36×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 446$28.061.0%02.50.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 1,333$27.810.3%10.8—
M4A4 | Zirka (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 301$25.551.3%13.70.27×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 909$23.100.4%41.23.25×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 208$21.351.6%55.40.93×
M4A4 | Global Offensive (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 400$20.620.8%32.81.07×
M4A4 | Tornado (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 391$20.020.8%42.91.40×
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 1,042$19.920.3%21.11.86×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 306$19.871.0%03.70.00×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 308$19.651.0%63.61.65×
M4A4 | Global Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 285$18.591.0%13.90.25×
M4A4 | Global Offensive (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 212$18.081.3%55.30.95×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 247$17.721.1%114.52.43×
M4A4 | Global Offensive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 169$17.551.6%26.60.30×
M4A4 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 204$15.051.1%45.50.73×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 155$14.801.5%87.21.11×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 135$14.371.6%48.30.48×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 100$13.642.1%1111.20.98×
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 191$13.631.1%135.92.22×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 146$13.531.4%107.71.30×
M4A4 | Desert Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 201$13.331.0%65.61.08×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 195$13.231.0%95.71.57×
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 182$12.501.0%66.10.98×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 175$12.261.1%56.40.78×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 111$11.581.6%810.10.80×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 77$11.022.2%1114.60.76×
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 84$10.311.9%1013.20.76×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 79$10.242.0%814.10.57×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 80$9.631.8%1314.00.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 80$9.031.7%1513.91.08×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 74$8.771.8%1715.11.13×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 69$8.021.8%1916.31.17×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 82$7.891.5%813.60.59×
M4A4 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 71$7.741.7%1615.81.01×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 68$7.701.7%1516.40.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 95$7.551.2%1411.71.19×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 77$6.901.4%2014.61.37×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 69$6.811.5%2116.11.30×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 60$6.381.6%3218.51.73×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 49$6.362.0%2723.01.18×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 57$6.081.6%1419.70.71×
M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 52$5.921.7%2121.40.98×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 52$5.741.7%2521.31.17×
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 44$5.311.8%1825.30.71×
M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 41$4.751.8%2827.51.02×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 33$4.091.9%2534.00.74×
M4A4 | Faded Zebra (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 29$4.062.1%3338.30.86×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 29$4.032.1%3738.50.96×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 33$3.831.8%3934.31.14×
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 43$3.571.3%3626.21.37×
M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 33$3.441.6%3933.71.16×
M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 27$3.281.8%3141.20.75×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 23$1.751.1%4847.71.01×
M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 21$1.581.2%4653.50.86×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 17$1.441.3%5264.20.81×
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 14$0.890.9%9677.81.23×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 35$0.690.3%4031.91.25×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 38$0.660.3%2929.70.98×
M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 36$0.630.3%3630.81.17×
M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 113$0.550.1%179.91.72×
M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 185$0.320.0%36.10.49×
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 213$0.260.0%05.30.00×
M4A4 | Mainframe (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 198$0.190.0%05.60.00×
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 192$0.180.0%05.80.00×
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 893$0.170.0%01.30.00×
M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight1 in 538$0.140.0%02.10.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/m4a4, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.31%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$7.2191.31%148
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$7.2191.61%148
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$7.2191.53%148
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$7.2191.67%148
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$7.2190.81%148
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$7.2191.57%148
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$7.2190.88%148
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$7.2191.19%148
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$7.2191.19%148
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$7.2191.15%148
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$7.2190.87%148
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$7.2191.18%148
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$7.2191.06%148
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$7.2191.39%148
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$7.2190.69%148
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$7.2191.32%148
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$7.2191.17%148
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$7.2190.76%148
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$7.2190.67%148
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$7.2191.43%148
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$7.2190.95%148
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$7.2191.27%148
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$7.2190.87%148
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$7.2191.13%148
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$7.2191.12%148
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$7.2191.13%148
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$7.2190.90%148
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$7.2191.03%148
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$7.2190.94%148
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$7.2191.14%148
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 8.1%covert 0.9%Covert 0.1%Classified 0.3%mil spec 22.1%restricted 26.6%#eb4b4b 0.0%red 0.1%industrial 12.4%blue 5.3%Ancient 0.2%pink 4.1%Rare 3.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.6%Mythical 0.6%milspec 7.9%violet 1.3%#d32ee6 1.8%Legendary 3.0%light blue 0.5%#87c7ff 0.5%Uncommon 0.1%blueLight 0.2%best hit —