Magic

A case on GGDROP (multicases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$37.04
Advertised RTP
92.03%
EV $34.09 from 146 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.17%
181 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
20 openings · below min
7 days
82.13%±20.04151 openings
30 days
83.17%±18.31181 openings
since tracking started
83.17%±18.31181 openings
8.5%64.0%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2063.96%±55.0—odds
7d15182.13%±20.0−1.0σodds
30d18183.17%±18.3−0.9σodds
All18183.17%±18.3−0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values146 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1,0270.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,556$1,0140.5%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 11 in 5,000$7280.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic1 in 8,333$6650.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$6270.2%00.0—
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 7,143$5840.2%00.0—
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$5810.3%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · Phase 41 in 6,250$5270.2%00.0—
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical1 in 5,556$4810.3%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 11 in 4,348$4630.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$4250.2%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 5,556$4130.2%00.0—
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$4030.1%00.0—
AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 4,545$3930.3%00.0—
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 6,250$3900.2%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$3860.2%00.0—
AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$3720.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 4,000$3660.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$3570.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 3,448$3560.3%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 3,333$3530.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Immortal1 in 3,125$3480.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 5,556$3390.2%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 5,556$3240.2%00.0—
AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$3110.2%00.0—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 1,818$2770.4%00.1—
P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$2700.1%00.0—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 6,250$2660.1%00.0—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,053$2530.7%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 1,923$2500.4%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,613$2410.4%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 6,667$2390.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,562$2320.4%00.1—
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,351$2130.5%00.1—
P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$2060.1%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 1,020$1980.6%00.2—
M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1970.1%00.0—
P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 1,220$1960.5%00.1—
P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$1960.1%00.0—
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,695$1960.3%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 5,000$1890.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,087$1890.5%00.2—
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 962$1870.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 4,167$1810.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1800.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 637$1740.8%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 498$1480.9%00.4—
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 459$1390.9%00.4—
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 420$1340.9%00.4—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 329$1331.2%00.6—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 559$1320.7%00.3—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 862$1310.4%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 813$1300.5%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 709$1290.5%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 980$1270.4%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1260.0%00.0—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$1250.2%10.1—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 617$1250.6%00.3—
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 1,408$1240.3%00.1—
AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 488$1160.7%00.4—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 422$1160.8%00.4—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 529$1080.6%10.3—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 288$1071.1%10.6—
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 524$1070.6%10.3—
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 272$98.631.1%10.7—
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 355$98.540.8%10.5—
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 298$98.131.0%00.6—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 239$94.461.2%10.8—
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 205$93.121.3%00.9—
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 382$90.460.7%20.5—
M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 240$90.461.1%20.8—
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 190$87.241.3%11.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 234$75.030.9%30.8—
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 271$74.530.8%10.7—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 164$73.611.3%01.10.00×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 158$73.351.4%01.10.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 524$73.030.4%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 483$71.690.4%10.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 339$70.420.6%00.5—
★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny1 in 201$70.121.0%00.9—
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 350$68.250.6%20.5—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 369$66.860.5%00.5—
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 394$66.530.5%00.5—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 532$66.300.4%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 420$65.330.5%30.4—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 433$65.330.4%10.4—
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 483$64.500.4%10.4—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 439$64.170.4%00.4—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 662$64.140.3%00.3—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 495$63.980.4%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 323$63.280.6%00.6—
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 277$62.780.7%10.7—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 180$62.671.0%01.00.00×
FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 181$59.971.0%11.01.00×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 158$58.971.1%11.10.87×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 131$55.681.2%21.41.45×
AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 94$50.381.6%31.91.56×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 118$50.231.2%41.52.61×
AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 91$48.971.6%12.00.51×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 99$48.451.4%01.80.00×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 140$47.871.0%21.31.55×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 118$47.031.2%01.50.00×
UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 131$45.971.0%01.40.00×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 113$44.451.2%21.61.25×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 96$42.741.3%21.91.07×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 86$41.611.4%22.10.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 76$39.151.5%12.40.42×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 73$38.881.6%32.51.20×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 70$38.871.6%22.60.78×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 58$37.021.9%43.11.28×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 68$36.161.6%42.71.50×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 56$36.071.9%23.30.61×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 44$35.542.4%54.11.22×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 38$23.841.8%54.71.06×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 33$23.792.1%55.50.91×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 26$21.372.4%76.91.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 22$20.832.8%68.40.72×
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 54$20.791.1%43.31.20×
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 43$18.491.3%54.21.18×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 55$18.201.0%43.31.21×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 49$16.721.0%33.70.81×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 37$15.271.2%74.91.43×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 48$13.550.8%53.71.34×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare1 in 40$13.531.0%04.50.00×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 47$13.350.8%43.91.03×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 57$13.330.7%13.20.31×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 92$12.630.4%22.01.01×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 73$11.660.5%72.52.83×
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 60$10.400.5%43.01.32×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 50$10.170.6%33.70.82×
P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 49$9.770.6%63.71.63×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 54$9.060.5%13.30.30×
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 75$8.610.3%32.41.24×
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 66$8.230.4%22.70.73×
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 63$7.480.4%42.91.38×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 70$7.310.3%12.60.39×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 64$6.240.3%32.81.06×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 67$6.150.3%12.70.37×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 80$6.030.2%12.30.44×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 69$5.650.2%42.61.53×
P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 106$5.380.1%21.71.17×
P90 | Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 88$4.660.2%12.10.48×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 74$4.400.2%22.40.82×
P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 73$4.240.2%32.51.20×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 67$4.140.2%42.71.47×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 69$4.100.2%42.61.53×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/magic, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$37.0492.03%146
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$37.0492.05%146
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$37.0492.00%146
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$37.0492.00%146
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$37.0492.04%146
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$37.0492.00%146
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$37.0492.06%146
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$37.0492.00%146
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$37.0492.00%146
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$37.0492.03%146
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$37.0492.00%146
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$37.0492.10%146
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$37.0492.09%146
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$37.0492.08%146
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$37.0492.00%146
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$37.0492.03%146
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$37.0492.08%146
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$37.0492.04%146
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$37.0492.03%146
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$37.0492.00%146
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$37.0492.00%146
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$37.0492.08%146
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$37.0492.08%146
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$37.0492.04%146
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$37.0492.04%146
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$37.0492.03%146
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$37.0492.02%146
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$37.0492.06%146
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$37.0492.00%146
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$37.0492.00%146
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.5%classified 28.0%epic 0.0%restricted 0.2%other 0.0%Mythical 0.0%Ancient 3.7%#eb4b4b 0.1%gold 0.1%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%#d32ee6 4.5%pink 3.2%Covert 1.4%extraordinary 0.8%red 7.3%rare 0.1%mil spec 5.3%#8847ff 1.4%violet 0.5%sunny 0.5%Rare 8.4%milspec 4.6%Mil Spec Grade 6.5%#4b69ff 2.1%Legendary 5.7%best hit —