Minimal Wear

A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1,076.10

Advertised RTP

83.00%

EV $893.18 from 83 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.67%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

19 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

-0.5%109.5%219.5%

Small sample. 20 openings and 3.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	8.34%±210.3	—	odds
7d	19	81.68%±48.5	—	odds
30d	20	78.67%±47.3	—	odds
All	20	78.67%±47.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values83 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 75	$6,008	9.0%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 61	$5,240	9.6%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband	1 in 67	$4,959	8.2%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$3,922	7.6%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$1,749	3.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 44	$1,633	4.1%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$1,506	4.9%	2	0.6	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$1,381	4.7%	2	0.6	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$1,322	2.0%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$1,317	2.2%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$1,317	2.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 86	$1,220	1.6%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$1,154	1.5%	3	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 68	$1,137	1.9%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 58	$1,072	2.1%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$965	1.9%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 57	$849	1.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 45	$792	2.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 46	$791	1.9%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 54	$776	1.6%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$741	1.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 93	$740	0.9%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 75	$686	1.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary	1 in 71	$661	1.0%	1	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 74	$648	1.0%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$586	1.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 81	$582	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 95	$579	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 74	$574	0.9%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 178	$546	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 160	$539	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$535	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$530	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 186	$528	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 152	$514	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 163	$508	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 148	$497	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 123	$493	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 135	$473	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 123	$473	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$460	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 109	$456	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 118	$447	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 108	$433	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$429	0.4%	1	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$399	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 92	$396	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$393	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 83	$374	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 108	$365	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 105	$351	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 90	$341	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 96	$324	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 104	$323	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$318	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 131	$318	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 197	$309	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 166	$308	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny	1 in 163	$294	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 131	$288	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 138	$279	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 101	$277	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$273	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 139	$268	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 160	$266	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 138	$262	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$255	0.2%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 117	$246	0.2%	0	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 97	$240	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 87	$233	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 79	$209	0.3%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 76	$196	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 68	$192	0.3%	1	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 60	$170	0.3%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 76	$165	0.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 80	$160	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 70	$146	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 89	$141	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 78	$132	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife	1 in 69	$130	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 69	$103	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 61	$101	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · Immortal	1 in 55	$97.43	0.2%	1	0.4	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/minimal-wear, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedhhunter$1,076$1,5911.48x2d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryLemo$1,076$1,4751.37x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryisfab.cs$1,076$1,4681.36x5d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBen İGA$1,076$1,4191.32x3d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedLEGOO$1,076$1,4101.31x6d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLemo$1,076$1,4041.30x5d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedKarlix_a$1,076$1,4041.30x4d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBen İGA$1,076$1,2731.18x3d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BBen İGA$1,076$1,1351.05x3d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertcat$1,076$9520.88x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · Immortalcat$1,076$89.740.08x22h

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancientsercantall$1,076$1660.15x2d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classifiedhhunter$1,076$1,5911.48x2d

★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertBen İGA$1,076$6420.60x3d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BBen İGA$1,076$1,1351.05x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryBen İGA$1,076$1730.16x3d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBen İGA$1,076$1,4191.32x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBen İGA$1,076$1,2731.18x3d

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedKarlix_a$1,076$1,4041.30x4d

★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covertisfab.cs$1,076$3440.32x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1,076	83.08%	83
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1,076	83.07%	83
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1,076	83.06%	83
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1,076	83.06%	83
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1,076	83.07%	83
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1,076	83.07%	83
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1,076	83.09%	83
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1,076	83.09%	83
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1,076	83.03%	83
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1,076	83.09%	83
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1,076	83.09%	83
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1,076	83.10%	83
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1,076	83.00%	83
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1,076	83.09%	83

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 4.5%covert 41.7%extraordinary 14.1%classified 13.6%#EB4B4B 2.7%legendary 2.1%epic 1.6%covert knife 7.2%mil spec 0.9%sunny 0.6%Classified 2.4%Immortal 4.3%rare 1.5%Ancient 1.3%other 1.4%best hit $1,591 (1.48x)