Collection 2019

A case on GGDROP (annual-collections), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.25

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $3.91 from 70 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.91%

746 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

51 openings · below min

7 days

80.36%±11.08704 openings

30 days

80.91%±10.77746 openings

since tracking started

80.91%±10.77746 openings

14.0%55.5%97.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (70.14% – 91.68%, 746 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	51	55.60%±40.9	—	odds
7d	704	80.36%±11.1	−2.1σ	odds
30d	746	80.91%±10.8	−2.0σ	odds
All	746	80.91%±10.8	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values70 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 746 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 7,692	$136	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 7,143	$129	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$124	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$116	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,263	$115	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,556	$99.72	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,667	$97.16	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$96.77	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,556	$93.58	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$92.63	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 6,667	$76.72	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 7,692	$74.92	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 6,667	$73.91	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 7,143	$73.20	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$62.78	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$61.16	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$58.85	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$57.30	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 5,263	$56.55	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$50.38	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$49.06	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$48.97	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,882	$44.74	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$41.65	0.2%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$39.49	0.2%	1	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$38.96	0.1%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$38.10	0.1%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$35.64	0.1%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 606	$33.82	1.4%	1	1.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 337	$26.27	2.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 219	$18.77	2.2%	5	3.4	1.47×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 132	$18.54	3.6%	8	5.7	1.41×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$16.96	4.3%	3	7.4	0.41×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 94	$13.55	3.7%	8	7.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 78	$11.10	3.6%	10	9.5	1.05×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 87	$10.64	3.1%	7	8.6	0.81×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$9.77	4.2%	7	12.6	0.55×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$8.35	4.0%	9	13.9	0.65×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$7.67	3.4%	14	12.9	1.09×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$7.47	3.8%	13	14.9	0.87×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$6.42	3.6%	9	16.5	0.55×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$5.92	2.5%	16	12.5	1.28×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$5.74	2.8%	9	14.1	0.64×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 43	$5.38	3.2%	8	17.4	0.46×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$4.58	2.7%	13	17.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 62	$4.58	1.9%	17	12.0	1.42×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$4.24	2.3%	19	16.0	1.19×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$4.15	2.7%	20	18.8	1.07×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 35	$4.06	2.9%	26	21.1	1.23×
StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 31	$2.92	2.4%	24	24.4	0.98×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$2.70	2.1%	20	22.9	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$2.67	2.5%	31	27.8	1.11×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$2.60	2.8%	28	31.3	0.89×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 46	$2.45	1.3%	24	16.1	1.49×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$2.25	1.0%	16	13.5	1.18×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 35	$1.99	1.4%	17	21.2	0.80×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$1.99	1.3%	19	18.6	1.02×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$1.91	1.2%	21	18.0	1.17×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$1.89	1.3%	18	20.1	0.90×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 44	$1.86	1.1%	13	17.0	0.76×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$1.81	0.9%	16	15.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$1.68	1.0%	13	16.9	0.77×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$1.50	1.1%	19	20.7	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.23	1.1%	28	26.8	1.04×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.19	1.2%	25	29.5	0.85×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$1.12	1.2%	37	32.0	1.16×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$0.73	0.8%	47	31.9	1.47×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$0.73	0.8%	29	32.3	0.90×
P250 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$0.69	0.7%	30	27.7	1.08×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$0.55	0.6%	46	32.9	1.40×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/сollection2019, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedNOT ASL$4.25$4.130.97x22m

UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violetNOT ASL$4.25$4.521.06x22m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedNOT ASL$4.25$2.430.57x22m

P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · restrictedNOT ASL$4.25$0.700.16x22m

P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedNOT ASL$4.25$4.150.98x22m

UMP-45 | Plastique (Well-Worn)weapon · violetNOT ASL$4.25$0.540.13x22m

StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedNOT ASL$4.25$2.900.68x22m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNOT ASL$4.25$1.130.27x22m

P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedNOT ASL$4.25$2.600.61x22m

UMP-45 | Plastique (Well-Worn)weapon · violetNOT ASL$4.25$0.540.13x22m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	70
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	70
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.25	92.02%	70
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.25	92.09%	70
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	70
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	70
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.25	92.05%	70
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	70

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.1%covert 0.4%classified 8.2%#eb4b4b 0.0%gold 0.0%red 0.0%restricted 63.6%Mythical 2.3%Restricted 14.0%Legendary 2.3%violet 6.7%#8847ff 2.3%best hit —