P250

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$1.96
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $1.80 from 150 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.91%
555 openings, odds method
Variance
4.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
19 openings · below min
7 days
97.64%±19.85415 openings
30 days
100.91%±17.06555 openings
since tracking started
100.91%±17.06555 openings
-0.5%89.5%179.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1987.16%±91.9—odds
7d41597.64%±19.9+0.6σodds
30d555100.91%±17.1+1.0σodds
All555100.91%±17.1+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values150 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 555 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1221.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1150.8%00.1—
P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1141.1%00.1—
P250 | See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1141.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1040.6%00.1—
P250 | Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 5,000$66.530.7%00.1—
P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 5,000$56.930.6%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Undertow (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,143$52.440.4%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 10,000$46.750.3%00.1—
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 6,250$43.510.4%00.1—
P250 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 5,263$37.500.4%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 5,000$32.950.4%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,882$29.990.3%00.1—
P250 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,556$29.210.3%00.1—
P250 | Red Rock (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,556$24.270.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,263$23.680.2%00.1—
P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,556$22.450.2%00.1—
P250 | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 9,091$21.160.1%00.1—
P250 | Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 7,143$19.580.2%00.1—
P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$18.750.2%00.1—
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 3,704$18.450.3%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,667$18.010.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,556$17.350.2%10.1—
P250 | Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 10,000$16.980.1%00.1—
P250 | Mehndi (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 2,326$16.850.4%00.2—
P250 | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 5,556$15.910.2%10.1—
P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 5,263$15.700.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,882$15.370.1%00.1—
P250 | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 2,041$14.860.4%00.3—
P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 2,326$14.160.3%00.2—
P250 | Muertos (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce61 in 917$13.980.8%00.6—
P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 9,091$13.820.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 9,091$13.800.1%00.1—
P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$13.550.1%00.1—
P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 5,556$12.970.1%20.1—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,124$12.860.6%10.5—
P250 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 704$12.371.0%00.8—
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 5,000$12.360.1%10.1—
P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 2,128$12.230.3%10.3—
P250 | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 410$11.791.6%11.40.74×
P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 549$11.331.1%11.00.99×
P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 389$10.691.5%01.40.00×
P250 | Dark Filigree (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 270$7.471.5%32.11.46×
P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 260$6.471.4%72.13.28×
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 198$5.971.7%52.81.79×
P250 | Dark Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 118$5.722.7%74.71.49×
P250 | Contamination (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 174$5.531.8%63.21.88×
P250 | Epicenter (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 245$4.961.1%32.31.32×
P250 | Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 204$4.881.3%42.71.47×
P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 218$4.811.2%12.50.39×
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 353$4.790.8%31.61.91×
StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 559$4.600.5%01.0—
P250 | Dark Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 334$4.570.8%21.71.21×
StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 442$4.490.6%61.34.78×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 168$4.411.5%23.30.61×
StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 283$4.270.8%12.00.51×
P250 | Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 459$4.160.5%11.20.83×
P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 212$4.121.1%62.62.30×
P250 | Cyber Shell (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 245$3.910.9%62.32.65×
P250 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 244$3.760.9%32.31.32×
StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 137$3.671.5%34.10.74×
P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 159$3.631.3%73.52.01×
P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 179$3.471.1%63.11.93×
StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 364$3.470.5%31.51.97×
P250 | Vino Primo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 231$3.210.8%32.41.25×
P250 | Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 165$3.131.1%03.40.00×
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 161$3.111.1%83.42.32×
P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 145$3.031.2%53.81.30×
P250 | Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 145$3.031.2%43.81.04×
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 251$2.990.7%32.21.35×
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 209$2.920.8%12.70.38×
StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 175$2.770.9%33.20.95×
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 129$2.711.2%54.31.17×
P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 132$2.701.1%34.20.71×
P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 116$2.691.3%94.81.87×
StatTrak™ P250 | Contaminant (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 150$2.671.0%63.71.63×
StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 168$2.550.8%33.30.91×
P250 | Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 118$2.541.2%64.71.27×
P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 106$2.471.3%35.20.58×
P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 79$2.251.6%97.01.28×
P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 85$2.101.4%46.50.61×
P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 63$1.991.7%128.81.37×
StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 51$1.972.2%411.00.37×
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 66$1.881.6%68.40.72×
P250 | Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 89$1.811.1%76.31.12×
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 81$1.681.1%116.81.61×
StatTrak™ P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 88$1.681.1%66.30.96×
StatTrak™ P250 | Contaminant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 82$1.591.1%36.80.44×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 68$1.581.3%68.20.73×
P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 72$1.531.2%87.71.04×
P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 67$1.511.3%98.31.08×
P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 76$1.501.1%77.30.95×
P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 64$1.491.3%108.71.15×
StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 59$1.231.2%69.50.63×
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 56$1.161.2%1510.01.50×
StatTrak™ P250 | Contaminant (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 43$1.151.5%1412.81.10×
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 35$1.081.7%1915.71.21×
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 59$1.061.0%109.41.06×
P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 66$1.010.9%108.51.18×
P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 59$0.980.9%159.41.59×
P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 66$0.890.7%68.40.72×
P250 | Contaminant (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 62$0.850.8%148.91.57×
P250 | Vino Primo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 61$0.840.8%89.00.88×
P250 | Contaminant (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 55$0.780.8%1310.11.28×
StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 82$0.760.5%66.80.88×
P250 | Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 93$0.750.4%106.01.67×
StatTrak™ P250 | Contaminant (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 75$0.730.5%47.40.54×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 89$0.690.4%86.21.29×
P250 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 139$0.690.3%84.02.00×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 111$0.660.3%25.00.40×
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 125$0.660.3%44.40.90×
StatTrak™ P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 118$0.640.3%54.71.06×
P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted1 in 98$0.620.4%45.70.71×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 121$0.620.3%44.60.87×
StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 134$0.600.2%84.11.93×
P250 | Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 121$0.590.3%24.60.43×
P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 153$0.580.2%63.61.66×
P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 117$0.580.3%34.70.63×
P250 | Ripple (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 126$0.550.2%24.40.45×
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 166$0.550.2%43.31.20×
P250 | Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 137$0.530.2%54.11.23×
P250 | Ripple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 159$0.530.2%63.51.72×
P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)weapon · 11 in 183$0.510.2%23.00.66×
P250 | Ripple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 115$0.500.2%34.80.62×
P250 | Ripple (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 138$0.490.2%34.00.74×
P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted1 in 100$0.460.3%15.50.18×
P250 | Iron Clad (Field-Tested)weapon · 11 in 141$0.450.2%63.91.52×
P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 126$0.430.2%74.41.58×
StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 136$0.430.2%44.10.98×
P250 | Iron Clad (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 136$0.430.2%44.10.98×
StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 129$0.380.2%44.30.93×
P250 | Verdigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 130$0.380.2%124.32.82×
P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 161$0.360.1%23.50.58×
P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 159$0.350.1%43.51.14×
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 158$0.350.1%13.50.29×
P250 | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 120$0.340.2%14.60.22×
StatTrak™ P250 | Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 107$0.340.2%25.20.39×
StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 138$0.340.1%94.02.23×
StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 120$0.340.2%54.61.09×
StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 120$0.340.2%24.60.43×
P250 | Exchanger (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 180$0.320.1%33.10.97×
P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 146$0.310.1%13.80.26×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 188$0.270.1%03.00.00×
P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 82$0.180.1%06.80.00×
P250 | Exchanger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 88$0.180.1%06.30.00×
P250 | Cassette (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 77$0.170.1%07.20.00×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 91$0.170.1%06.10.00×
P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 84$0.160.1%06.60.00×
P250 | Cassette (Well-Worn)weapon · 11 in 103$0.150.1%05.40.00×
StatTrak™ P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 102$0.150.1%05.50.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/p250, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$1.9692.00%150
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$1.9692.09%150
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$1.9692.05%150
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$1.9692.02%150
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$1.9692.00%150
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$1.9692.00%150
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$1.9692.00%150
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$1.9692.09%150
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$1.9692.06%150
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$1.9692.10%150
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$1.9692.02%150
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$1.9692.02%150
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$1.9692.05%150
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$1.9692.00%150
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$1.9692.00%150
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$1.9692.00%150
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$1.9692.03%150
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$1.9692.00%150
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$1.9692.00%150
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$1.9692.09%150
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$1.9692.06%150
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$1.9692.03%150
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$1.9692.07%150
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$1.9692.09%150
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$1.9692.03%150
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$1.9692.05%150
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$1.9692.00%150
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$1.9692.00%150
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$1.9692.00%150
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$1.9692.07%150
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 2.2%covert 0.1%mil spec 6.6%classified 2.6%Legendary 1.5%Mythical 4.7%milspec 22.1%#d32ee6 0.6%restricted 25.7%industrial 3.6%Mil Spec Grade 0.6%Rare 2.1%#4b69ff 5.9%#d32ce6 0.6%#8847ff 5.3%Industrial Grade 0.4%pink 0.9%Restricted 4.0%Uncommon 1.2%blue 7.1%violet 2.1%best hit —