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Pixel

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$1.29
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $1.19 from 54 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.50%
3,635 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
91.66%±7.97689 openings
7 days
92.30%±3.753,225 openings
30 days
92.50%±3.533,635 openings
since tracking started
92.50%±3.533,635 openings
83.0%91.8%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h68991.66%±7.97−0.1σodds
7d3,22592.30%±3.75+0.2σodds
30d3,63592.50%±3.53+0.3σodds
All3,63592.50%±3.53+0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,635 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$27.130.4%00.6—
AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$26.860.3%10.5—
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 5,882$21.700.3%20.6—
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$21.190.3%10.5—
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 7,143$20.690.2%00.5—
USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 5,882$16.410.2%70.6—
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 4,545$11.450.2%00.8—
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 6,250$11.030.1%10.6—
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 5,000$11.020.2%10.7—
P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,000$10.450.4%11.80.55×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 10,000$9.140.1%60.4—
P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 1,190$8.840.6%23.10.66×
P90 | Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 2,222$8.720.3%21.61.22×
Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 388$7.351.6%109.41.07×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 962$6.070.5%123.83.17×
Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 126$6.004.0%828.80.28×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 270$5.931.8%1413.41.04×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 219$5.812.2%2616.61.57×
USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 122$4.102.8%1829.90.60×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 104$4.033.3%1635.10.46×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 115$3.842.8%3531.71.10×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 70$3.454.2%4452.00.85×
AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 103$3.412.8%4635.41.30×
AWP | Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 72$3.333.9%4850.50.95×
USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 61$2.863.9%5659.10.95×
MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 62$2.793.8%7058.61.19×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 47$1.993.5%6976.90.90×
FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 40$1.793.8%12291.21.34×
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 36$1.653.9%125102.11.22×
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 31$1.423.9%125117.91.06×
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 41$1.402.9%7789.70.86×
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 40$1.332.8%7290.80.79×
P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 41$1.162.4%6187.70.70×
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 61$1.081.5%7859.21.32×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 54$1.071.7%8266.71.23×
FAMAS | Neural Net (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 46$1.062.0%7979.60.99×
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 48$1.061.9%8476.51.10×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 64$1.021.3%7256.91.26×
P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 60$1.011.4%5860.20.96×
P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 60$0.981.4%6760.31.11×
FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 41$0.972.0%8089.20.90×
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 37$0.851.9%9798.90.98×
SG 553 | Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 31$0.671.8%213116.51.83×
MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 27$0.662.1%107135.00.79×
SG 553 | Darkwing (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 22$0.632.4%107165.40.65×
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 22$0.532.0%147161.60.91×
P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 31$0.521.4%167118.11.41×
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 25$0.511.7%142143.30.99×
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 24$0.461.6%156154.61.01×
P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 27$0.421.3%156134.21.16×
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 23$0.371.3%86155.20.55×
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 19$0.351.5%225188.31.19×
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 18$0.321.5%135201.20.67×
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 16$0.311.6%219220.90.99×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/pixel-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffmekthereal$1.29$0.460.36x
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69fff1YbEn$1.29$0.460.36x
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecf1YbEn$1.29$0.860.67x
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecf1YbEn$1.29$0.860.67x
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffStihl$1.29$1.651.28x
P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalStihl$1.29$0.950.74x
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecStihl$1.29$0.350.27x
FAMAS | Neural Net (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedStihl$1.29$1.050.81x
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedStihl$1.29$1.060.82x
Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedStihl$1.29$0.310.24x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$1.2992.00%54
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$1.2992.00%54
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$1.2992.00%54
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$1.2992.00%54
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$1.2992.00%54
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$1.2992.05%54
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$1.2992.00%54
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$1.2992.00%54
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$1.2992.00%54
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$1.2992.00%54
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$1.2992.08%54
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$1.2992.09%54
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$1.2992.00%54
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$1.2992.00%54
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$1.2992.00%54
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$1.2992.00%54
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$1.2992.02%54
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$1.2992.00%54
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$1.2992.00%54
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$1.2992.00%54
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$1.2992.00%54
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$1.2992.01%54
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$1.2992.00%54
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$1.2992.00%54
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$1.2992.01%54
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$1.2992.01%54
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$1.2992.00%54
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$1.2992.00%54
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$1.2992.00%54
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC$1.2992.02%54
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.6%#d32ee6 1.3%pink 5.7%mil spec 1.6%Legendary 0.4%milspec 16.7%blue 1.6%restricted 28.4%#4b69ff 10.8%#8847ff 5.7%violet 18.6%Mythical 4.9%Rare 3.7%best hit —