Platinum Knife

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$359.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $330.28 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.15%

486 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

100.41%±10.99333 openings

30 days

95.15%±9.15486 openings

since tracking started

95.15%±9.15486 openings

31.0%71.5%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	69.81%±38.3	—	odds
7d	333	100.41%±11.0	+1.5σ	odds
30d	486	95.15%±9.15	+0.7σ	odds
All	486	95.15%±9.15	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 487 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,639	$4,495	0.8%	1	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 108	$2,204	6.2%	2	4.5	0.45×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 119	$1,532	3.9%	2	4.1	0.49×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 162	$1,466	2.7%	6	3.0	1.99×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 143	$1,458	3.1%	1	3.4	0.29×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$1,327	3.2%	5	3.9	1.28×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 154	$1,196	2.3%	6	3.2	1.90×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 105	$1,022	3.0%	5	4.7	1.07×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 83	$952	3.5%	8	5.9	1.36×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 68	$818	3.7%	6	7.2	0.83×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 73	$685	2.8%	10	6.6	1.51×
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 60	$643	3.3%	4	8.2	0.49×
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 57	$636	3.4%	11	8.5	1.30×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 65	$608	2.8%	5	7.5	0.66×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 72	$606	2.5%	1	6.8	0.15×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 66	$542	2.5%	6	7.4	0.81×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 62	$510	2.5%	7	7.9	0.89×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 59	$475	2.4%	5	8.2	0.61×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 49	$454	2.8%	12	9.9	1.21×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 47	$452	2.9%	12	10.3	1.16×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 43	$391	2.7%	11	11.3	0.98×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 38	$358	2.9%	17	12.8	1.33×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$305	2.8%	16	14.6	1.10×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 29	$300	3.1%	20	16.8	1.19×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 32	$293	2.8%	16	15.4	1.04×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 30	$253	2.6%	10	16.4	0.61×
★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert	1 in 36	$233	1.9%	15	13.4	1.12×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 31	$196	1.9%	17	15.9	1.07×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 26	$194	2.3%	14	18.8	0.74×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 30	$192	2.0%	22	16.4	1.34×
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 28	$159	1.7%	25	17.4	1.44×
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 42	$155	1.1%	13	11.6	1.12×
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 36	$154	1.3%	10	13.6	0.73×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 27	$137	1.5%	10	17.9	0.56×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 42	$131	0.9%	15	11.5	1.31×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 34	$126	1.1%	12	14.2	0.84×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 27	$107	1.2%	14	18.1	0.77×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 26	$103	1.2%	14	18.6	0.75×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$96.42	1.2%	20	19.7	1.02×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 21	$89.24	1.3%	23	23.5	0.98×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 22	$75.78	1.0%	20	21.8	0.92×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 19	$67.89	1.1%	23	26.1	0.88×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/platinum-knife, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2r1stAAAA火影$359$4,49512.52x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyFetan Eger$359$2,4156.73x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny%10 BONUS CODE: ASLAN$359$2,4086.71x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Lemo$359$2,3066.42x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Retr0$359$2,2776.34x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertr1stAAAA火影$359$1,5314.27x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertluk4$359$1,5164.22x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertkuzzi$359$1,5074.20x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertBen İGA$359$1,5024.18x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covertNonesy$359$1580.44x11m

★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · goldr1stAAAA火影$359$1910.53x2h

★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covertr1stAAAA火影$359$2320.65x2h

★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertr1stAAAA火影$359$1300.36x2h

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertr1stAAAA火影$359$4541.27x2h

★ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertPavs0n$359$1930.54x16h

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Pavs0n$359$4751.32x16h

★ Huntsman Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · rareBen İGA$359$67.640.19x16h

★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covertBen İGA$359$2370.66x16h

★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicBen İGA$359$2930.82x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$359	92.09%	42
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$359	92.05%	42
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$359	92.05%	42
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$359	92.05%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$359	92.05%	42
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$359	92.04%	42
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$359	92.09%	42
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$359	92.05%	42
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$359	92.09%	42
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$359	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$359	92.09%	42
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$359	92.04%	42
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$359	92.00%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 60.6%gold 4.7%covert knife 17.5%rare 9.2%epic 3.5%Covert 4.5%best hit $4,495 (12.52x)