Pro League

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1.90

Advertised RTP

92.03%

EV $1.75 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.45%

2,486 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.20%±9.90342 openings

7 days

98.00%±3.862,300 openings

30 days

97.45%±3.712,486 openings

since tracking started

97.45%±3.712,486 openings

79.5%91.0%102.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.04% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (93.74% – 101.16%, 2,486 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	342	90.20%±9.90	−0.4σ	odds
7d	2,300	98.00%±3.86	+3.0σ	odds
30d	2,486	97.45%±3.71	+2.9σ	odds
All	2,486	97.45%±3.71	+2.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,486 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$13.87	0.1%	1	0.4	—
'The Doctor' Romanov \| Sabreagent · red	1 in 758	$10.88	0.8%	6	3.3	1.83×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 242	$10.54	2.5%	5	10.3	0.49×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 448	$9.45	1.2%	8	5.5	1.44×
P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$8.72	4.1%	11	20.7	0.53×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 124	$7.18	3.3%	17	20.0	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$7.12	4.8%	13	29.3	0.44×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 151	$5.93	2.2%	37	16.4	2.25×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 94	$5.79	3.5%	32	26.4	1.21×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 88	$5.56	3.6%	36	28.1	1.28×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$4.70	4.9%	58	45.3	1.28×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$4.35	5.0%	45	50.1	0.90×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 47	$3.63	4.4%	65	52.7	1.23×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$3.32	6.0%	81	78.4	1.03×
Charm \| Die-cast AKcharm · #8847ff	1 in 33	$2.79	4.9%	96	75.6	1.27×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| DRYDEN, Feel The Powermusic kit	1 in 26	$2.64	5.7%	115	93.9	1.22×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 24	$1.95	4.7%	125	103.9	1.20×
MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$1.89	5.0%	114	115.8	0.98×
Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Devil's Paintbrushmusic kit · 7	1 in 19	$1.58	4.8%	140	131.3	1.07×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$1.44	5.1%	141	153.4	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$1.39	4.1%	143	128.5	1.11×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$1.06	3.7%	171	150.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 15	$0.99	3.7%	177	161.1	1.10×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$0.75	2.9%	169	168.8	1.00×
Charm \| Dr. Briancharm · #8847ff	1 in 12	$0.66	3.1%	217	201.3	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.63	2.6%	232	180.6	1.28×
Tec-9 \| Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.41	2.1%	231	220.6	1.05×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 12	$0.25	1.2%	0	213.4	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/pro-league, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetmekthereal$1.90$0.630.33x18m

Music Kit | Tim Huling, Devil's Paintbrushmusic kit · 7JOCCI$1.90$1.560.82x25m

Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecmekthereal$1.90$0.420.22x1h

Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonpilogo$1.90$1.870.98x1h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | DRYDEN, Feel The Powermusic kit༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$1.90$2.681.41x1h

USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$1.90$0.770.41x1h

Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$1.90$0.410.22x1h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Scavenger (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedStihl$1.90$0.990.52x1h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryStihl$1.90$5.933.12x1h

Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecStihl$1.90$0.410.22x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1.90	92.03%	28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.90	92.03%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.90	92.01%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.90	92.09%	28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.90	92.10%	28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1.90	92.08%	28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1.90	92.08%	28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1.90	92.04%	28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1.90	92.03%	28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.90	92.05%	28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.90	92.05%	28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1.90	92.05%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.90	92.09%	28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$1.90	92.00%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed7 5.3%classified 4.2%red 0.1%Classified 2.4%Legendary 0.7%uncommon 5.2%restricted 8.6%Mythical 2.1%milspec 20.6%#8847ff 17.2%other 3.8%violet 23.3%Restricted 6.5%best hit —