Scream

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.69

Advertised RTP

92.08%

EV $2.48 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.93%

9,880 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.76%±4.741,739 openings

7 days

91.89%±2.128,729 openings

30 days

91.93%±1.989,880 openings

since tracking started

91.93%±1.989,880 openings

87.5%92.8%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,739	92.76%±4.74	+0.3σ	odds
7d	8,729	91.89%±2.12	−0.1σ	odds
30d	9,880	91.93%±1.98	−0.1σ	odds
All	9,880	91.93%±1.98	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,881 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 7,692	$35.18	0.2%	1	1.3	0.78×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 8,333	$31.62	0.2%	2	1.2	1.69×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$30.65	0.1%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 5,882	$26.20	0.2%	2	1.7	1.19×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$22.78	0.1%	1	1.2	0.84×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 6,250	$22.37	0.1%	5	1.6	3.16×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 667	$20.69	1.3%	6	14.8	0.40×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 6,250	$14.50	0.1%	20	1.6	12.65×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 163	$14.17	3.5%	16	60.7	0.26×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 177	$12.94	3.0%	51	55.9	0.91×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 189	$9.94	2.1%	76	52.2	1.46×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 215	$9.58	1.8%	83	46.0	1.80×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 163	$9.33	2.3%	119	60.7	1.96×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$9.14	4.7%	103	125.5	0.82×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 77	$8.67	4.6%	108	129.0	0.84×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 73	$7.42	4.1%	142	134.9	1.05×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$6.52	5.2%	159	196.5	0.81×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$5.38	4.2%	193	191.9	1.01×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$5.23	5.8%	260	272.8	0.95×
P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 35	$4.81	5.5%	264	278.5	0.95×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 31	$4.09	5.4%	310	323.4	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$3.33	4.4%	338	322.8	1.05×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 23	$2.71	4.7%	432	424.2	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.67	5.0%	488	460.1	1.06×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.62	5.1%	442	474.6	0.93×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$2.34	4.6%	449	486.0	0.92×
MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$1.89	3.4%	459	439.0	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$1.48	3.3%	520	553.6	0.94×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.06	3.0%	670	695.7	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.85	2.7%	744	789.8	0.94×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.75	2.4%	651	769.7	0.85×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$0.73	2.0%	636	655.8	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$0.72	1.5%	679	509.6	1.33×
Negev \| Lionfish (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 24	$0.68	1.2%	529	416.1	1.27×
Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 23	$0.60	1.0%	456	420.5	1.08×
MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 19	$0.58	1.2%	466	511.0	0.91×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/scream, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon♛ 𝕂𝕖𝕟𝕥 ♛$2.69$0.570.21x32m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetCARCAHİL ADAM$2.69$0.730.27x40m

Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restrictedCARCAHİL ADAM$2.69$0.740.28x40m

USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedCARCAHİL ADAM$2.69$0.770.29x40m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetCARCAHİL ADAM$2.69$0.730.27x40m

FAMAS | Neural Net (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedCARCAHİL ADAM$2.69$1.050.39x40m

UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedCARCAHİL ADAM$2.69$5.341.99x41m

MAC-10 | Heat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedCARCAHİL ADAM$2.69$2.670.99x41m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkIndiferent$2.69$3.401.26x41m

MAC-10 | Heat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedCARCAHİL ADAM$2.69$2.670.99x41m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.69	92.08%	36
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.69	92.03%	36
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.69	92.06%	36
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.69	92.05%	36
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.69	92.08%	36
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.69	92.09%	36
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.69	92.05%	36
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.69	92.04%	36
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.69	92.03%	36
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.69	92.00%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.0%red 0.0%covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%pink 8.1%Legendary 4.6%classified 7.0%Classified 0.5%#d32ce6 2.8%#8847ff 12.8%restricted 38.9%Mythical 4.9%violet 15.2%Uncommon 5.2%best hit —