Shadow Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.40

Advertised RTP

92.06%

EV $2.21 from 122 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.34%

411 openings, odds method

Variance

3.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

51 openings · below min

7 days

88.97%±19.67343 openings

30 days

86.34%±17.87411 openings

since tracking started

86.34%±17.87411 openings

27.0%80.0%133.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	51	80.23%±52.4	—	odds
7d	343	88.97%±19.7	−0.3σ	odds
30d	411	86.34%±17.9	−0.6σ	odds
All	411	86.34%±17.9	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values122 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 411 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$143	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$117	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$109	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$96.75	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$75.46	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$74.15	0.5%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$73.80	0.3%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$68.40	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$67.95	0.6%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$67.55	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$65.53	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$58.59	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$55.40	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,556	$43.61	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 8,333	$38.33	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$38.11	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$37.32	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$36.56	0.2%	0	0.0	—
G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$35.95	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 3,125	$32.94	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$31.96	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 5,882	$31.05	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$30.77	0.2%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$27.74	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,818	$25.07	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$23.22	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 6,250	$23.07	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$21.50	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$18.70	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 4,762	$17.83	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$17.80	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$17.59	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$16.80	0.5%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 741	$15.28	0.9%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 588	$14.10	1.1%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 870	$12.86	0.7%	2	0.5	—
G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 690	$12.48	0.8%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 376	$11.49	1.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 552	$11.02	0.9%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 478	$9.80	0.9%	2	0.9	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 426	$9.27	1.0%	0	1.0	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 680	$9.14	0.6%	3	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 256	$8.42	1.5%	2	1.6	1.25×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 500	$8.09	0.7%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 402	$8.08	0.9%	2	1.0	1.95×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 318	$7.48	1.1%	2	1.3	1.55×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,064	$7.42	0.3%	0	0.4	—
G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 366	$7.42	0.9%	2	1.1	1.78×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 259	$7.21	1.3%	1	1.6	0.63×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 606	$7.02	0.5%	3	0.7	—
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 190	$6.93	1.7%	2	2.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 158	$5.97	1.7%	3	2.6	1.15×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 162	$5.93	1.7%	2	2.5	0.79×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$5.73	1.9%	1	3.0	0.33×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$5.33	2.0%	2	3.4	0.59×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$4.81	1.8%	1	3.5	0.29×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$4.61	1.7%	4	3.4	1.16×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 72	$4.34	2.7%	2	5.7	0.35×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 91	$4.19	2.1%	6	4.5	1.32×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 102	$3.82	1.7%	8	4.0	1.99×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 85	$3.39	1.8%	4	4.8	0.82×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 78	$3.12	1.8%	7	5.3	1.33×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$3.11	2.0%	6	6.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 85	$3.11	1.7%	8	4.8	1.65×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 90	$3.07	1.5%	4	4.6	0.88×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 155	$3.03	0.9%	1	2.7	0.38×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 295	$2.99	0.5%	3	1.4	2.15×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 124	$2.90	1.1%	4	3.3	1.21×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 142	$2.85	0.9%	4	2.9	1.38×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 141	$2.85	0.9%	8	2.9	2.75×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 128	$2.73	1.0%	7	3.2	2.19×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 154	$2.71	0.8%	3	2.7	1.13×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 134	$2.60	0.9%	2	3.1	0.65×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$2.51	1.4%	7	5.1	1.37×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 76	$2.29	1.4%	5	5.4	0.92×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 75	$2.28	1.4%	7	5.5	1.27×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 75	$2.23	1.3%	13	5.5	2.37×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 72	$2.14	1.3%	5	5.7	0.88×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 105	$2.12	0.9%	1	3.9	0.26×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$2.05	1.1%	10	4.8	2.10×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 74	$2.03	1.2%	4	5.5	0.72×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$1.88	1.0%	7	5.0	1.40×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 70	$1.85	1.2%	7	5.9	1.19×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$1.80	1.3%	12	6.5	1.85×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 55	$1.53	1.3%	8	7.5	1.07×
P250 \| Wingshot (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 65	$1.50	1.0%	3	6.3	0.48×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 58	$1.50	1.2%	6	7.1	0.85×
P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$1.49	1.2%	7	7.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 55	$1.48	1.2%	8	7.5	1.07×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 109	$1.36	0.6%	5	3.8	1.32×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 84	$1.30	0.7%	4	4.9	0.82×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$1.28	0.8%	13	5.8	2.24×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 58	$1.22	0.9%	6	7.0	0.85×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 62	$1.22	0.9%	8	6.6	1.21×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 56	$1.18	0.9%	1	7.3	0.14×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 78	$1.14	0.7%	9	5.3	1.70×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$1.12	0.7%	6	5.8	1.03×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$1.08	0.8%	6	6.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 57	$1.05	0.8%	2	7.2	0.28×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 56	$0.95	0.8%	9	7.3	1.24×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 45	$0.82	0.8%	4	9.1	0.44×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 37	$0.80	1.0%	9	11.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$0.78	1.0%	9	12.1	0.75×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$0.78	1.1%	9	12.8	0.70×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 37	$0.53	0.7%	8	11.2	0.72×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.51	0.5%	6	8.4	0.72×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 45	$0.49	0.5%	7	9.2	0.76×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 31	$0.47	0.7%	10	13.3	0.75×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 120	$0.46	0.2%	9	3.4	2.62×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 107	$0.46	0.2%	1	3.8	0.26×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 120	$0.46	0.2%	8	3.4	2.34×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 123	$0.42	0.2%	1	3.3	0.30×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 113	$0.41	0.2%	3	3.6	0.82×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 104	$0.38	0.2%	5	3.9	1.27×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 83	$0.37	0.2%	4	4.9	0.81×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 77	$0.37	0.2%	5	5.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 80	$0.34	0.2%	1	5.1	0.19×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 79	$0.32	0.2%	8	5.2	1.53×
XM1014 \| Scumbria (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 85	$0.32	0.2%	4	4.8	0.83×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 82	$0.29	0.2%	5	5.0	1.00×
SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$0.29	0.1%	2	4.6	0.43×
SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 82	$0.29	0.2%	0	5.0	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/shadow, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeDODO$2.40$1.500.63x9h

MP7 | Special Delivery (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedDODO$2.40$1.310.55x9h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Survivor Z (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecpoizn$2.40$1.200.50x11h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecpoizn$2.40$1.140.48x11h

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedpoizn$2.40$2.471.03x11h

MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalpoizn$2.40$1.250.52x11h

MP7 | Special Delivery (Well-Worn)weapon · violetpoizn$2.40$1.800.75x11h

XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecpoizn$2.40$0.320.13x11h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedpoizn$2.40$3.131.30x11h

StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffpoizn$2.40$3.001.25x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	122
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	122
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.40	92.09%	122
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	122
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.40	92.05%	122
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.40	92.05%	122
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	122
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.40	92.09%	122
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.40	92.03%	122
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	122
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.40	92.02%	122
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	122

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 3.0%classified 1.2%covert 0.1%gold 0.0%Classified 0.0%Restricted 5.1%restricted 19.1%#d32ce6 0.0%#8847ff 2.5%pink 0.3%#d32ee6 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 6.2%milspec 34.5%violet 5.6%blue 0.4%Mythical 3.2%#4b69ff 3.0%mil spec 8.6%Rare 6.6%best hit —