Silver Knife

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$179.00

Advertised RTP

91.92%

EV $164.54 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.28%

156 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

101.68%±10.12138 openings

30 days

100.28%±9.50156 openings

since tracking started

100.28%±9.50156 openings

22.5%90.0%157.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	89.88%±66.9	—	odds
7d	138	101.68%±10.1	+1.9σ	odds
30d	156	100.28%±9.50	+1.7σ	odds
All	156	100.28%±9.50	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 34	$402	7.2%	10	4.6	2.18×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 28	$402	8.7%	7	5.5	1.26×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$395	7.4%	3	4.8	0.63×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 31	$382	7.4%	6	5.0	1.21×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$305	6.6%	4	5.5	0.72×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 29	$260	5.4%	8	5.3	1.50×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 26	$254	6.0%	2	6.1	0.33×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 23	$196	5.1%	9	6.8	1.33×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 23	$188	4.9%	9	6.7	1.35×
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 28	$184	3.9%	10	5.5	1.83×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 22	$182	5.0%	4	7.0	0.57×
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$175	3.2%	4	4.7	0.85×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 41	$156	2.3%	6	3.8	1.58×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 32	$136	2.6%	4	4.9	0.81×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 27	$103	2.4%	5	5.9	0.85×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 22	$102	2.8%	6	7.0	0.85×
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 19	$102	3.2%	6	8.1	0.74×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 30	$102	2.1%	4	5.3	0.76×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 76	$101	0.8%	6	2.1	2.92×
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 59	$96.31	1.0%	4	2.7	1.50×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 52	$86.08	1.0%	5	3.0	1.67×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 93	$81.12	0.5%	2	1.7	1.19×
★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 47	$78.08	1.0%	3	3.3	0.90×
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$74.84	1.4%	4	4.7	0.84×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 43	$72.11	1.0%	1	3.7	0.27×
★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 85	$67.19	0.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 84	$65.38	0.5%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 60	$63.12	0.6%	1	2.6	0.38×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 97	$62.29	0.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 99	$61.44	0.4%	1	1.6	0.64×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 57	$59.70	0.6%	3	2.7	1.10×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 59	$59.49	0.6%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 65	$59.37	0.6%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 741	$58.65	0.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 459	$55.13	0.1%	1	0.3	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 194	$54.74	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 48	$52.40	0.7%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 165	$51.23	0.2%	3	0.9	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 72	$51.19	0.4%	1	2.2	0.46×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 62	$50.54	0.5%	5	2.5	2.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 78	$50.17	0.4%	1	2.0	0.50×
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 54	$44.16	0.5%	2	2.9	0.69×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 7,692	$43.31	0.0%	1	0.0	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/silver-knife, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covertMonTesCZ88$179$50.940.28x2h

★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertNEGEVBOT$179$1750.98x6h

★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertNEGEVBOT$179$1841.03x6h

★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifePavs0n$179$1971.10x17h

★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifer1stAAAA火影$179$1971.10x19h

★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700r1stAAAA火影$179$86.490.48x23h

★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicr1stAAAA火影$179$1540.86x23h

★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covertr1stAAAA火影$179$4152.32x23h

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3r1stAAAA火影$179$3832.14x23h

★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertr1stAAAA火影$179$1370.77x23h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$179	91.92%	43
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$179	92.00%	43
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$179	91.97%	43
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$179	92.00%	43
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$179	91.97%	43
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$179	91.94%	43
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$179	91.97%	43
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$179	91.92%	43
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$179	91.91%	43
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$179	91.92%	43
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$179	91.91%	43
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$179	91.91%	43
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$179	91.91%	43
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$179	91.91%	43
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$179	91.90%	43
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$179	91.95%	43
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$179	92.00%	43
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$179	91.95%	43
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$179	91.91%	43
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$179	91.91%	43
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$179	91.92%	43
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$179	91.94%	43
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$179	91.91%	43
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$179	91.90%	43
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$179	91.93%	43
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$179	91.97%	43
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$179	92.00%	43
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$179	91.93%	43
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$179	91.92%	43
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$179	91.96%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 66.3%covert knife 24.7%epic 2.4%gold 1.7%#ffd700 2.9%Covert 1.9%best hit —