Solar Safari

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$6.99
Advertised RTP
92.03%
EV $6.43 from 66 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.10%
307 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
30 days
91.10%±11.74307 openings
since tracking started
91.10%±11.74307 openings
78.5%91.0%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d30791.10%±11.7−0.2σodds
All30791.10%±11.7−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 307 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 465$66.562.2%20.7—
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 266$38.262.2%21.21.73×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 294$38.152.0%21.01.92×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 296$35.531.9%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 298$32.741.7%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 556$31.840.9%20.6—
AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 448$30.691.1%00.7—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 457$30.431.0%00.7—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 518$30.140.9%00.6—
AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 820$28.230.5%00.4—
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 426$26.000.9%10.7—
AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 357$25.841.1%10.9—
Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 282$22.431.2%01.10.00×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 289$22.171.2%11.10.94×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 495$22.020.7%00.6—
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 270$21.421.2%01.10.00×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 532$21.120.6%00.6—
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 490$20.880.7%10.6—
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 420$20.770.8%10.7—
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 295$20.671.1%31.02.88×
Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 380$20.440.8%00.8—
AWP | Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 318$19.641.0%11.0—
Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 268$19.471.1%11.10.87×
AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 220$18.691.3%01.40.00×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 183$18.261.5%21.71.20×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 173$18.111.6%41.82.26×
SG 553 | Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 144$18.072.0%32.11.41×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 134$18.062.1%42.31.74×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 130$17.332.1%02.40.00×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 93$16.742.8%43.31.21×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 75$16.643.4%44.10.98×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 58$14.483.9%35.30.57×
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 46$9.093.1%96.71.34×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 38$8.983.7%128.01.49×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 31$8.674.4%59.90.50×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 29$8.464.5%910.50.85×
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 64$8.262.0%54.81.04×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 50$6.311.9%86.11.32×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 45$6.262.2%86.81.18×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 39$6.152.5%27.90.25×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 33$5.772.7%99.30.96×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 66$5.631.3%24.60.43×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 55$5.411.5%55.60.89×
P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 46$4.851.6%86.61.20×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 48$4.831.6%66.40.93×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 41$4.401.7%87.51.07×
P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 37$3.911.6%78.30.84×
P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 43$3.651.3%77.10.99×
FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 44$3.651.3%87.11.13×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 37$3.591.5%68.30.72×
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 40$3.541.4%87.71.04×
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 48$3.111.0%36.40.47×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 38$2.521.0%108.11.24×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 33$2.441.1%159.21.63×
SSG 08 | Parallax (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 28$2.401.3%1111.01.00×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 30$2.111.1%510.20.49×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 52$2.100.6%45.90.67×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 47$2.090.7%116.51.70×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 39$1.710.7%68.00.75×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 47$1.540.5%86.51.24×
P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 38$1.410.6%68.10.74×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 30$1.310.7%1010.10.99×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 37$0.790.3%158.31.81×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 38$0.720.3%48.10.50×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 36$0.610.3%128.51.42×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 33$0.510.2%139.31.39×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/solar-safari, 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$6.9992.03%66
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$6.9992.03%66
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$6.9992.02%66
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC$6.9991.94%66
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC$6.9992.01%66
3 Nov, 15:56 UTC$6.9992.05%66
3 Nov, 09:34 UTC$6.9992.00%66
3 Nov, 07:28 UTC$6.9992.00%66
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$6.9991.90%66
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 30.7%red 0.4%covert 0.7%Covert 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.2%Legendary 3.6%rare 0.3%uncommon 0.5%pink 18.4%#d32ee6 2.6%Mythical 4.5%Classified 2.4%#8847ff 7.6%violet 6.6%restricted 13.2%Restricted 4.8%#d32ce6 3.3%best hit —