Spectrum Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$3.61

Advertised RTP

92.09%

EV $3.32 from 124 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.41%

104 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

34 openings · below min

7 days

96 openings · below min

30 days

76.41%±35.59104 openings

since tracking started

76.41%±35.59104 openings

10.0%72.3%134.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	34	72.37%±61.5	—	odds
7d	96	75.65%±37.1	—	odds
30d	104	76.41%±35.6	−0.9σ	odds
All	104	76.41%±35.6	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 104 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$167	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$149	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$141	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$133	0.4%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$129	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$129	0.4%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$120	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$117	0.5%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$116	0.4%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$115	0.4%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$115	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,882	$108	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$92.11	1.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$48.14	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$42.62	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 10,000	$38.22	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$35.38	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,556	$34.27	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$28.25	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$27.64	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 2,222	$27.39	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$26.96	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$26.50	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$22.39	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 901	$22.05	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$21.90	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$21.88	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 800	$21.27	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 625	$21.03	1.0%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$20.48	0.1%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$17.23	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 342	$14.79	1.3%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 395	$14.61	1.1%	0	0.3	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 306	$14.52	1.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 258	$14.35	1.7%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 518	$14.13	0.8%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$14.02	0.1%	2	0.0	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 307	$13.91	1.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 319	$13.87	1.3%	0	0.3	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$13.74	2.6%	0	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 131	$13.44	3.1%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 105	$13.42	3.8%	1	1.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 85	$13.25	4.7%	1	1.2	0.82×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$8.73	4.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$7.57	4.8%	0	2.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$4.76	4.0%	1	2.9	0.35×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$4.52	4.3%	3	3.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$4.35	3.8%	2	3.0	0.66×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$4.34	3.9%	2	3.1	0.64×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 83	$4.32	1.6%	2	1.2	1.60×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$3.68	1.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 78	$3.59	1.4%	1	1.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 73	$3.53	1.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 53	$3.48	2.0%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 133	$3.41	0.8%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 91	$3.14	1.0%	1	1.1	0.87×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$3.08	1.0%	1	1.1	0.88×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 78	$3.08	1.2%	3	1.3	2.25×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 82	$2.94	1.1%	3	1.3	2.35×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 80	$2.75	1.0%	2	1.3	1.54×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 99	$2.73	0.8%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 69	$2.64	1.1%	2	1.5	1.33×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 96	$2.63	0.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 110	$2.59	0.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 114	$2.47	0.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 97	$2.43	0.8%	3	1.1	2.79×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$2.42	0.9%	1	1.3	0.77×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 76	$2.35	0.9%	1	1.4	0.73×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$2.23	0.9%	3	1.4	2.19×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 67	$2.19	1.0%	1	1.5	0.65×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 54	$1.95	1.1%	1	1.9	0.52×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 48	$1.91	1.2%	3	2.2	1.38×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$1.65	1.1%	4	2.3	1.78×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 40	$1.60	1.2%	3	2.6	1.15×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 56	$1.58	0.8%	2	1.9	1.08×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.56	0.9%	1	2.1	0.48×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 118	$1.55	0.4%	4	0.9	—
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 109	$1.48	0.4%	0	1.0	—
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$1.46	0.5%	2	1.2	1.61×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	1 in 71	$1.45	0.6%	2	1.5	1.36×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$1.41	0.8%	1	1.9	0.54×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 70	$1.38	0.6%	1	1.5	0.67×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$1.08	0.6%	3	2.1	1.45×
MP7 \| Akoben (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 43	$0.98	0.7%	1	2.4	0.41×
P250 \| Ripple (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 36	$0.95	0.8%	0	2.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Zander (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 31	$0.89	0.9%	4	3.3	1.20×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 58	$0.82	0.4%	2	1.8	1.11×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 80	$0.79	0.3%	4	1.3	3.08×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$0.77	0.3%	2	1.5	1.36×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 84	$0.76	0.3%	3	1.2	2.41×
SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 115	$0.71	0.2%	2	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 116	$0.64	0.2%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 109	$0.60	0.2%	0	1.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Zander (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 104	$0.58	0.2%	0	1.0	—
P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 109	$0.55	0.2%	1	1.0	—
MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 169	$0.54	0.1%	1	0.6	—
P250 \| Ripple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 271	$0.53	0.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 211	$0.53	0.1%	1	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 300	$0.51	0.1%	0	0.3	—
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 313	$0.51	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 465	$0.51	0.0%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 311	$0.50	0.0%	1	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 439	$0.50	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 439	$0.50	0.0%	1	0.2	—
P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 319	$0.49	0.0%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Akoben (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 306	$0.47	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 229	$0.46	0.1%	2	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 429	$0.46	0.0%	1	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 299	$0.46	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Sawed-Off \| Zander (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 202	$0.45	0.1%	2	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 332	$0.45	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 198	$0.45	0.1%	0	0.5	—
MP7 \| Akoben (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 330	$0.43	0.0%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 383	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 379	$0.42	0.0%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 196	$0.40	0.1%	0	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 211	$0.38	0.1%	0	0.5	—
Sawed-Off \| Zander (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 223	$0.36	0.0%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Zander (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 153	$0.36	0.1%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Zander (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 181	$0.36	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 180	$0.34	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 153	$0.34	0.1%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 181	$0.34	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Zander (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 175	$0.29	0.0%	1	0.6	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/spectrum, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violetLOM$3.61$1.410.39x3h

Sawed-Off | Zander (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecLOM$3.61$0.350.10x3h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedLOM$3.61$2.570.71x3h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLOM$3.61$0.540.15x3h

SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecLOM$3.61$0.700.19x3h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Akoben (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLOM$3.61$0.780.22x3h

XM1014 | Seasons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetLimasnkiy$3.61$1.650.46x16h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Scaffold (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedLimasnkiy$3.61$2.870.80x16h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specLimasnkiy$3.61$0.840.23x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.09%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$3.61	92.09%	124
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$3.61	92.05%	124
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$3.61	92.05%	124
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$3.61	92.01%	124
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	124
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$3.61	92.07%	124
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	124
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	124
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$3.61	92.06%	124
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.61	91.99%	124
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$3.61	92.09%	124
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	124
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.61	92.07%	124
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$3.61	92.09%	124

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.2%3 1.4%covert 0.1%Ancient 0.0%classified 3.7%#d32ee6 0.0%Classified 0.1%restricted 23.6%pink 0.4%#d32ce6 0.8%Legendary 1.2%Restricted 14.3%#8847ff 4.9%Mythical 5.7%#8847FF 1.2%mil spec 11.4%violet 3.4%Mil Spec Grade 6.2%milspec 14.9%Rare 1.9%#4b69ff 2.8%blue 0.8%best hit —