Thunderworld

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1.55

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $1.43 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.08%

1,289 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.72%±12.95168 openings

7 days

96.95%±5.121,117 openings

30 days

96.08%±4.761,289 openings

since tracking started

96.08%±4.761,289 openings

76.0%89.8%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	168	89.72%±13.0	−0.3σ	odds
7d	1,117	96.95%±5.12	+1.9σ	odds
30d	1,289	96.08%±4.76	+1.7σ	odds
All	1,289	96.08%±4.76	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,289 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$13.87	0.2%	0	0.2	—
'The Doctor' Romanov \| Sabreagent · red	1 in 5,556	$10.88	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 8,333	$10.54	0.1%	0	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$9.45	0.1%	1	0.3	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$8.72	0.1%	2	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 294	$7.18	1.7%	3	4.4	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$7.12	0.1%	3	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 336	$5.93	1.2%	5	3.8	1.30×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 122	$5.79	3.3%	10	10.6	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$5.56	6.5%	9	21.4	0.42×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$4.70	5.5%	8	21.6	0.37×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 71	$4.35	4.3%	29	18.1	1.60×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 51	$3.63	5.0%	32	25.5	1.25×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$3.32	7.2%	32	39.9	0.80×
Charm \| Die-cast AKcharm · #8847ff	1 in 37	$2.79	5.3%	42	35.0	1.20×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| DRYDEN, Feel The Powermusic kit	1 in 32	$2.64	5.8%	51	40.6	1.26×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 26	$1.95	5.2%	64	49.3	1.30×
MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$1.89	6.2%	77	60.3	1.28×
Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Devil's Paintbrushmusic kit · 7	1 in 21	$1.58	5.3%	72	62.1	1.16×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$1.44	5.8%	73	73.6	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$1.39	5.0%	63	66.2	0.95×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$1.06	4.8%	83	83.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 17	$0.99	4.2%	106	77.5	1.37×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.75	4.1%	110	100.8	1.09×
Charm \| Dr. Briancharm · #8847ff	1 in 11	$0.66	4.2%	143	116.0	1.23×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.63	3.7%	126	108.0	1.17×
Tec-9 \| Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	10.6%	$0.41	3.1%	145	136.9	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	10.3%	$0.25	1.8%	0	132.9	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/thunderworld, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedPrakint12$1.55$0.770.50x2h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetPrakint12$1.55$0.630.41x2h

Charm | Die-cast AKcharm · #8847ffPrakint12$1.55$2.781.79x2h

UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violetPrakint12$1.55$1.410.91x2h

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violetPrakint12$1.55$1.440.93x2h

Charm | Die-cast AKcharm · #8847ffPrakint12$1.55$2.781.79x2h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Scavenger (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedPrakint12$1.55$0.990.64x2h

UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested)weapon · violetPrakint12$1.55$1.410.91x2h

Charm | Dr. Briancharm · #8847ffPrakint12$1.55$0.650.42x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.55	92.10%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.55	92.02%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.55	92.09%	28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1.55	92.08%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.55	92.09%	28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1.55	92.06%	28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1.55	92.07%	28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1.55	92.03%	28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1.55	92.04%	28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1.55	92.04%	28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.55	92.08%	28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1.55	92.09%	28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.55	92.02%	28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$1.55	92.00%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed7 4.8%classified 2.1%red 0.0%Classified 1.4%Legendary 0.3%uncommon 4.6%restricted 9.5%Mythical 2.0%milspec 24.0%#8847ff 18.2%other 3.2%violet 23.9%Restricted 6.0%best hit —