TomT

A case on GGDROP (partners), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

92.08%

EV $27.62 from 63 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.26%

743 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.39%±29.74103 openings

7 days

91.77%±10.74593 openings

30 days

91.26%±9.34743 openings

since tracking started

91.26%±9.34743 openings

50.0%80.5%111.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	103	80.39%±29.7	−0.8σ	odds
7d	593	91.77%±10.7	−0.0σ	odds
30d	743	91.26%±9.34	−0.2σ	odds
All	743	91.26%±9.34	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 743 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$2,740	1.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 8,333	$453	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$357	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 7,692	$356	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$330	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$319	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 5,556	$289	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$270	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$266	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$265	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 6,667	$253	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,333	$232	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$213	0.4%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$197	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 5,000	$194	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$193	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$189	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 357	$187	1.9%	2	2.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$180	0.4%	3	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 833	$162	0.7%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 709	$156	0.8%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$153	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 405	$144	1.3%	1	1.8	0.54×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 236	$133	2.0%	5	3.2	1.59×
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 610	$126	0.8%	1	1.2	0.82×
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 265	$115	1.6%	3	2.8	1.07×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 196	$109	2.0%	4	3.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 148	$108	2.6%	5	5.0	1.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 172	$101	2.1%	5	4.3	1.16×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 106	$86.73	3.0%	5	7.0	0.72×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 98	$76.13	2.8%	8	7.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 85	$75.46	3.2%	11	8.8	1.26×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 71	$74.15	3.8%	12	10.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 58	$71.92	4.5%	12	12.8	0.94×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 72	$64.17	3.2%	8	10.3	0.77×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$55.04	3.6%	10	13.4	0.75×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 41	$45.97	4.1%	19	18.2	1.04×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 34	$40.24	4.3%	33	22.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$38.33	4.2%	21	22.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 32	$36.56	4.1%	18	23.1	0.78×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 37	$35.18	3.5%	14	20.3	0.69×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 38	$28.78	2.7%	13	19.5	0.67×
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$25.45	2.8%	31	22.3	1.39×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$22.74	2.9%	25	26.3	0.95×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 23	$18.66	3.0%	27	32.9	0.82×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$18.49	2.4%	25	26.6	0.94×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 32	$17.93	2.0%	14	23.0	0.61×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$17.80	1.7%	23	20.1	1.14×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 63	$17.13	1.0%	20	11.9	1.68×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 56	$16.39	1.1%	13	13.3	0.97×
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$15.84	1.0%	10	13.5	0.74×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 46	$15.07	1.2%	22	16.0	1.37×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$14.19	1.2%	26	17.8	1.46×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 41	$13.89	1.2%	21	18.2	1.15×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$12.49	1.4%	18	22.3	0.81×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$11.56	1.3%	25	23.4	1.07×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$10.08	1.2%	23	25.3	0.91×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$9.94	1.5%	30	30.0	1.00×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$7.35	1.1%	36	31.8	1.13×
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$6.17	1.0%	30	34.6	0.87×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 22	$6.15	1.0%	29	33.7	0.86×
AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$4.86	1.0%	46	40.8	1.13×
AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 22	$3.23	0.5%	33	33.6	0.98×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/tomt, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCS.PRO AEZY$30.00$15.030.50x39m

AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedCS.PRO AEZY$30.00$11.510.38x39m

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertCS.PRO AEZY$30.00$71.592.39x39m

AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedB0RAT$30.00$11.510.38x1h

AWP | Black Nile (Well-Worn)weapon · blueTau$30.00$3.220.11x2h

SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedNEGEVBOT$30.00$25.450.85x5h

AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueL4he$T$30.00$4.850.16x8h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedL4he$T$30.00$15.130.50x8h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · redPhylong$30.00$64.192.14x9h

AWP | Black Nile (Well-Worn)weapon · bluePhylong$30.00$3.240.11x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$30.00	92.08%	63
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$30.00	92.04%	63
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$30.00	92.07%	63
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$30.00	92.01%	63
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$30.00	92.06%	63
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$30.00	92.02%	63
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$30.00	92.06%	63
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$30.00	92.07%	63
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$30.00	92.05%	63
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$30.00	92.03%	63
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$30.00	92.09%	63
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$30.00	92.08%	63
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$30.00	92.09%	63
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$30.00	92.00%	63

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.0%#eb4b4b 0.5%extraordinary 0.1%Covert 0.0%Restricted 0.1%classified 36.7%violet 0.2%red 2.0%Ancient 3.7%milspec 2.5%Classified 8.8%#d32ee6 7.5%mil spec 3.6%pink 4.3%restricted 8.5%Legendary 4.5%blue 10.0%best hit —