Vandal

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1.79

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $1.65 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.39%

5,045 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.18%±7.64628 openings

7 days

93.37%±2.914,386 openings

30 days

93.39%±2.715,045 openings

since tracking started

93.39%±2.715,045 openings

86.0%94.2%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	628	94.18%±7.64	+0.5σ	odds
7d	4,386	93.37%±2.91	+0.9σ	odds
30d	5,045	93.39%±2.71	+1.0σ	odds
All	5,045	93.39%±2.71	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,045 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$14.00	0.1%	1	0.8	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 330	$12.49	2.3%	19	15.3	1.24×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 199	$9.07	2.8%	28	25.4	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 158	$7.25	2.8%	49	32.0	1.53×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 161	$6.95	2.6%	45	31.3	1.44×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 68	$6.03	5.4%	48	74.6	0.64×
AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$5.93	5.2%	72	72.2	1.00×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 66	$5.23	4.8%	65	76.5	0.85×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$4.41	4.4%	76	83.7	0.91×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$4.03	5.0%	109	104.0	1.05×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 40	$4.02	6.1%	88	125.7	0.70×
Dual Berettas \| Panther (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 34	$3.64	6.4%	159	147.2	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$2.63	5.0%	199	158.8	1.25×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 32	$2.16	4.1%	183	158.7	1.15×
FAMAS \| Faulty Wiring (Well-Worn)weapon	1 in 22	$1.67	4.7%	262	234.6	1.12×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$1.64	5.2%	234	264.4	0.89×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$1.62	4.6%	270	238.4	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$1.28	3.8%	233	249.6	0.93×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.22	3.0%	235	202.0	1.16×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$1.21	3.2%	201	222.9	0.90×
P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$1.21	3.3%	267	226.6	1.18×
P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 19	$0.78	2.5%	247	267.0	0.93×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$0.76	2.4%	274	266.1	1.03×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$0.54	1.8%	362	273.6	1.32×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.50	2.5%	364	407.4	0.89×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$0.50	2.5%	327	421.9	0.78×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 16	$0.42	1.6%	312	314.0	0.99×
Sawed-Off \| Parched (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 14	$0.38	1.6%	316	350.7	0.90×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/vandal, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkStihl$1.79$1.640.92x1h

MAC-10 | Derailment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetStihl$1.79$1.630.91x1h

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkStihl$1.79$4.022.25x1h

MAC-10 | Derailment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetStihl$1.79$1.630.91x1h

M4A1-S | Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkStihl$1.79$1.640.92x1h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · violetStihl$1.79$0.560.31x1h

Sawed-Off | Parched (Factory New)weapon · CommonStihl$1.79$0.380.21x1h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkStihl$1.79$1.270.71x1h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · violetStihl$1.79$0.560.31x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.79	92.02%	28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1.79	92.05%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.79	92.06%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.79	92.02%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.79	92.04%	28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.79	92.07%	28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1.79	92.07%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1.79	92.06%	28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1.79	92.03%	28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1.79	92.04%	28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1.79	92.06%	28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1.79	92.07%	28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1.79	92.04%	28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.79	92.07%	28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.79	92.03%	28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1.79	92.07%	28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$1.79	92.00%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 6.9%pink 12.9%#8847ff 0.6%Uncommon 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 6.1%restricted 15.5%other 4.7%violet 28.9%mil spec 4.5%blue 5.3%milspec 5.3%Common 7.0%best hit —