Black & White

A case on GGDROP (vip-color), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$115.00

Advertised RTP

92.03%

EV $105.83 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.55%

1,247 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85 openings · below min

7 days

89.10%±7.68982 openings

30 days

90.55%±6.921,247 openings

since tracking started

90.55%±6.921,247 openings

62.0%87.8%113.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	85	87.77%±24.9	—	odds
7d	982	89.10%±7.68	−0.7σ	odds
30d	1,247	90.55%±6.92	−0.4σ	odds
All	1,247	90.55%±6.92	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,247 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$3,337	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$3,192	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 347	$1,001	2.7%	4	3.6	1.11×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 256	$829	3.1%	11	4.9	2.26×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 147	$780	5.0%	8	8.5	0.95×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 152	$630	3.9%	2	8.2	0.24×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 89	$353	3.7%	11	14.0	0.78×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 137	$315	2.2%	11	9.1	1.21×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$311	4.7%	12	20.1	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 57	$268	4.5%	16	22.0	0.73×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$198	2.2%	14	14.4	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$193	2.5%	15	17.2	0.87×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$191	2.7%	31	18.4	1.68×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 79	$189	2.3%	13	15.8	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 203	$189	0.9%	8	6.1	1.30×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 251	$181	0.7%	6	5.0	1.21×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 201	$166	0.8%	6	6.2	0.97×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 136	$160	1.1%	13	9.2	1.42×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 106	$153	1.4%	11	11.8	0.93×
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 105	$152	1.4%	9	11.8	0.76×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 132	$149	1.1%	17	9.4	1.81×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 137	$146	1.0%	6	9.1	0.66×
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 169	$145	0.8%	9	7.4	1.22×
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 121	$140	1.1%	10	10.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 113	$134	1.1%	5	11.0	0.45×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 146	$134	0.9%	6	8.6	0.70×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 97	$129	1.3%	6	12.9	0.46×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 106	$127	1.1%	12	11.8	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 134	$123	0.9%	9	9.3	0.97×
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 119	$120	1.0%	16	10.5	1.53×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$119	1.0%	17	11.5	1.47×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 96	$110	1.1%	21	13.0	1.62×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$109	1.3%	16	16.0	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 72	$104	1.4%	18	17.4	1.03×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 59	$99.39	1.6%	16	21.0	0.76×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$95.38	1.2%	17	16.8	1.01×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$90.45	1.4%	20	19.8	1.01×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$88.83	1.6%	14	23.4	0.60×
MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 75	$88.69	1.1%	17	16.6	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 66	$88.31	1.3%	16	18.8	0.85×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 68	$84.77	1.2%	11	18.2	0.60×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 69	$76.03	1.0%	24	18.0	1.33×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$75.85	1.4%	30	24.9	1.21×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 40	$71.86	1.7%	22	31.4	0.70×
USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$67.12	1.6%	21	31.1	0.67×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 48	$66.18	1.3%	29	26.2	1.11×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 43	$65.29	1.4%	28	29.2	0.96×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 38	$59.03	1.5%	42	33.0	1.27×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 38	$57.98	1.5%	23	33.1	0.69×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 32	$57.42	1.7%	53	38.6	1.37×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 28	$56.78	1.9%	43	44.4	0.97×
MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$55.23	1.7%	53	40.9	1.30×
MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 24	$53.11	2.1%	23	52.7	0.44×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 19	$41.02	2.0%	93	64.2	1.45×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$40.12	2.3%	62	75.8	0.82×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$39.70	2.8%	101	92.1	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 11	$36.56	3.1%	120	111.8	1.07×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/vip-black-white, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryb0usif$115$1,0018.70x16h

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryPogoManko$115$9948.64x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryjohanka$115$9638.38x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700Karlix_a$115$8577.45x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700MOMOMO$115$8547.43x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700PogoManko$115$8507.39x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700EYEDAZZLER$115$8507.39x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700PVP$115$8387.28x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redBen İGA$115$36.880.32x1h

MP9 | Dark Age (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffKarlix_a$115$53.030.46x1h

M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$115$2652.31x2h

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$115$1521.33x2h

USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$115$39.840.35x2h

AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$115$1901.65x2h

AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$115$95.220.83x2h

★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · goldCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$115$64.780.56x2h

USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covertCODE: SWAT256 BY GG$115$39.840.35x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$115	92.03%	57
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$115	92.01%	57
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$115	92.01%	57
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$115	91.99%	57
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$115	92.03%	57
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$115	92.05%	57
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$115	91.99%	57
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$115	92.01%	57
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$115	92.06%	57
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$115	92.05%	57
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$115	92.01%	57
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$115	92.06%	57
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$115	92.00%	57
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$115	92.01%	57
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$115	92.07%	57

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 8.4%extraordinary 6.9%#ffd700 0.4%gold 9.7%covert 35.1%restricted 4.1%rare 1.0%Ancient 3.6%red 9.7%Mythical 2.9%#4b69ff 5.6%#eb4b4b 1.4%Classified 2.7%mil spec 3.3%Covert 5.1%best hit $1,001 (8.70x)