Green

A case on GGDROP (vip-color), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$105.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $96.60 from 59 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.56%

583 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

42 openings · below min

7 days

89.58%±12.66438 openings

30 days

92.56%±10.99583 openings

since tracking started

92.56%±10.99583 openings

18.0%61.0%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	42	58.98%±40.1	—	odds
7d	438	89.58%±12.7	−0.4σ	odds
30d	583	92.56%±11.0	+0.1σ	odds
All	583	92.56%±11.0	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 583 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$5,666	1.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$4,756	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,250	$2,213	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$1,303	0.2%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$907	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 5,000	$868	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$804	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,704	$742	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$627	0.1%	1	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$568	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 9,091	$514	0.1%	3	0.1	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 222	$480	2.2%	3	2.6	1.14×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 181	$480	2.7%	3	3.2	0.93×
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 227	$467	2.1%	2	2.6	0.78×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 265	$454	1.8%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 273	$454	1.7%	0	2.1	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 360	$444	1.3%	2	1.6	1.23×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 172	$401	2.4%	6	3.4	1.77×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 101	$394	4.0%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 105	$391	3.9%	5	5.6	0.90×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 131	$338	2.7%	9	4.5	2.02×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 85	$333	4.1%	5	6.9	0.73×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 59	$199	3.5%	15	9.9	1.52×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 54	$180	3.5%	7	10.9	0.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 45	$174	4.0%	19	12.9	1.47×
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 35	$157	4.6%	18	16.6	1.08×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$156	2.5%	16	9.1	1.76×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$144	2.1%	12	8.4	1.43×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$144	2.5%	6	9.9	0.60×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 78	$140	1.8%	10	7.4	1.35×
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 68	$140	2.1%	9	8.6	1.05×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 75	$121	1.7%	17	7.8	2.18×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 49	$119	2.5%	9	11.9	0.76×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$102	2.5%	10	13.6	0.74×
MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$93.07	3.1%	13	18.5	0.70×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 41	$85.70	2.2%	8	14.3	0.56×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$66.14	2.4%	9	20.9	0.43×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 34	$66.04	2.0%	13	17.0	0.77×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 35	$65.69	1.9%	13	16.6	0.78×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 36	$65.44	1.9%	13	16.0	0.81×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$62.78	0.6%	9	5.3	1.71×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 84	$60.38	0.7%	10	7.0	1.43×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 74	$59.79	0.8%	11	7.9	1.39×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 57	$59.12	1.1%	6	10.2	0.59×
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 60	$56.49	1.0%	6	9.7	0.62×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$50.38	0.9%	13	10.1	1.29×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$49.05	1.3%	11	14.4	0.76×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$48.97	1.3%	16	14.9	1.07×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 38	$48.18	1.3%	16	15.2	1.06×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 45	$45.29	1.0%	11	12.9	0.85×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 35	$36.19	1.1%	14	16.8	0.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 32	$36.16	1.2%	19	18.0	1.06×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$33.41	1.4%	21	22.9	0.92×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 24	$31.54	1.4%	25	24.2	1.03×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 35	$30.89	0.9%	33	16.9	1.96×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$30.53	1.2%	14	22.1	0.63×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 26	$29.02	1.1%	28	22.3	1.26×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$28.51	1.3%	27	25.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$19.88	1.2%	30	34.9	0.86×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/vip-green, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertEdoTensei no Jutsu$105$6546.23x4d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · goldE.Ş$105$5715.43x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3_OnEtAp_$105$5285.03x2d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3sercantall$105$5255.00x1d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Enr!en$105$5054.81x6d

P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedUse BEST Code: SAVREX175$105$5004.76x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classifiedClicky$105$66.510.63x3m

AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertksp$105$48.790.46x2h

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specNin$105$58.650.56x2h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedEnr!en$105$19.890.19x6h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedEnr!en$105$36.170.34x6h

P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedKilovi$105$1441.37x8h

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covertL4he$T$105$50.560.48x8h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6L4he$T$105$41.310.39x8h

CZ75-Auto | Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil specL4he$T$105$1191.13x8h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedb0usif$105$65.540.62x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$105	92.04%	59
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$105	92.05%	59
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$105	92.02%	59
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$105	92.10%	59
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$105	92.10%	59
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$105	92.07%	59
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$105	92.10%	59
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$105	91.99%	59
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$105	92.05%	59
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$105	92.04%	59
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$105	92.04%	59
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$105	92.06%	59
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$105	92.09%	59
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$105	92.00%	59
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$105	92.00%	59

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.1%extraordinary 8.0%restricted 10.3%Restricted 0.4%covert knife 1.1%Covert 1.2%#d32ee6 8.1%classified 28.9%mil spec 17.4%Mil Spec Grade 2.4%#8847ff 3.4%Rare 2.6%Classified 3.1%pink 3.8%best hit $654 (6.23x)