Yes.

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$3.12
Advertised RTP
90.96%
EV $2.84 from 150 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.24%
6,294 openings, odds method
Variance
8.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
106.57%±15.611,549 openings
7 days
97.87%±8.225,369 openings
30 days
96.24%±7.586,294 openings
since tracking started
96.24%±7.586,294 openings
88.0%105.5%123.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,549106.57%±15.6+1.9σodds
7d5,36997.87%±8.22+1.6σodds
30d6,29496.24%±7.58+1.3σodds
All6,29496.24%±7.58+1.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values150 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,306 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$3821.8%00.8—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$2391.0%10.8—
Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$2300.8%10.6—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$2140.9%30.8—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1981.2%21.11.86×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1491.0%01.20.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1350.5%00.6—
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 9,091$1260.5%00.7—
Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1260.7%01.00.00×
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,556$1260.8%21.11.76×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1110.6%10.9—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,692$1040.5%10.8—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$99.080.7%01.20.00×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$98.580.3%00.6—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 8,333$92.510.4%20.8—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$92.480.4%10.8—
AWP | Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 6,667$88.030.5%10.9—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$86.650.4%20.8—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 5,882$84.150.5%01.10.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$83.250.4%20.9—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$80.470.5%11.10.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$80.020.4%10.8—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 8,333$76.720.3%00.8—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$75.730.4%10.9—
★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 10,000$74.840.3%20.6—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$73.040.3%20.8—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$67.900.3%00.8—
FAMAS | Spitfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$66.850.3%00.8—
M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$66.270.4%01.10.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$65.310.4%11.00.99×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$62.420.3%20.8—
★ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd7001 in 9,091$61.440.2%10.7—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$61.010.3%10.8—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,143$59.470.3%00.9—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #EB4B4B1 in 7,692$56.740.3%00.8—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$56.380.4%21.21.66×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,692$55.610.3%10.8—
AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 7,143$51.180.3%20.9—
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 5,882$50.600.3%01.10.00×
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny1 in 5,882$49.790.3%31.12.79×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$48.690.3%31.32.37×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 9,091$47.920.2%10.7—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$46.800.2%10.6—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,692$46.120.2%10.8—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 5,263$43.880.3%11.20.83×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$41.690.3%11.10.88×
USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$38.330.1%00.6—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 5,882$36.570.2%11.10.93×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$33.410.1%10.8—
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 7,692$32.880.2%00.8—
Alyx Pinpin · extraordinary1 in 5,263$28.050.2%41.23.33×
AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 5,882$23.930.1%11.10.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,143$23.100.1%10.9—
AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$22.520.1%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 7,692$22.150.1%20.8—
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 9,091$21.410.1%10.7—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,667$21.290.1%10.9—
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,263$20.790.1%01.20.00×
FAMAS | Spitfire (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$19.760.1%10.6—
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 9,091$19.330.1%10.7—
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$17.450.1%11.20.83×
AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$17.110.1%00.8—
AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$16.950.1%11.00.99×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,250$16.260.1%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,667$15.710.1%20.9—
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$14.260.1%21.11.86×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 5,556$13.650.1%21.11.76×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 10,000$13.360.0%10.6—
AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 5,882$13.330.1%31.12.79×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 5,882$13.230.1%11.10.93×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 7,143$12.940.1%00.9—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,124$11.580.4%25.60.36×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 329$11.481.2%319.20.16×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,818$11.300.2%23.50.57×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 7,692$11.270.1%20.8—
M4A1-S | Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$11.270.0%90.7—
AUG | Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,556$10.810.1%31.12.63×
StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 820$10.400.4%67.70.78×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 2,381$10.280.2%52.71.88×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Impire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 658$9.830.5%139.61.35×
P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 8,333$9.770.0%60.8—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 202$9.421.6%1931.30.61×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 467$7.760.6%1513.51.11×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 149$7.551.8%3142.50.73×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 342$7.450.8%2618.51.41×
MP7 | Impire (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 104$7.382.5%3061.00.49×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce61 in 240$6.941.0%4526.41.71×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 546$6.900.4%3211.62.76×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 189$6.811.3%2333.40.69×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 164$6.081.3%3338.50.86×
P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 146$5.381.3%5343.31.22×
Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 104$5.341.8%4560.50.74×
P250 | Mint Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 153$5.241.2%7041.31.69×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 189$5.191.0%5833.51.73×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 218$5.060.8%5129.01.76×
Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 130$4.621.3%5248.61.07×
P90 | Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 173$4.410.9%4336.61.17×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 116$4.241.3%5254.50.95×
P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 152$4.241.0%6941.81.65×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Embargo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 115$4.201.3%4455.00.80×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 152$4.091.0%2541.60.60×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 152$4.060.9%3441.60.82×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 128$4.031.1%6049.41.21×
AWP | Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 181$3.980.8%4934.91.40×
AWP | Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 137$3.921.0%5446.21.17×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 135$3.821.0%5046.81.07×
AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 93$3.811.4%5367.70.78×
USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 90$3.721.5%7970.21.13×
Nova | Koi (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 90$3.661.4%10769.91.53×
MP9 | Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 94$3.441.3%9767.41.44×
MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 52$3.202.2%106122.70.86×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 49$2.882.1%131128.61.02×
MP7 | Impire (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 46$2.722.1%110138.50.79×
Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 39$2.472.2%158161.20.98×
StatTrak™ Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 42$2.472.1%143149.20.96×
MP7 | Impire (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 41$2.282.0%137154.70.89×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 46$2.001.5%136136.51.00×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 46$1.991.5%130136.60.95×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 48$1.981.4%141130.61.08×
AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 48$1.881.4%108131.70.82×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 98$1.860.7%9964.81.53×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 110$1.860.6%7957.51.37×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 108$1.850.6%9958.71.69×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 103$1.820.6%6061.50.98×
Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 85$1.710.7%9674.71.28×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 88$1.580.6%8771.71.21×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 69$1.550.8%8792.20.94×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.531.1%112127.10.88×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 59$1.500.9%106106.90.99×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 85$1.450.6%13874.71.85×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 80$1.440.6%10379.51.30×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 62$1.390.8%90102.20.88×
MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 60$1.330.8%126104.81.20×
Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 53$1.230.8%120120.51.00×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 55$1.220.8%117114.61.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 56$1.220.8%106113.90.93×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 48$1.160.9%150132.91.13×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 52$1.120.8%133122.61.08×
MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 55$0.990.6%251114.42.19×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 38$0.800.8%70168.40.42×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 32$0.790.9%214198.01.08×
Five-SeveN | Buddy (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 29$0.720.9%208217.70.96×
Five-SeveN | Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 33$0.590.6%181189.90.95×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 46$0.530.4%103137.30.75×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 36$0.520.5%181174.81.04×
M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 41$0.510.4%209155.21.35×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 49$0.490.4%157129.41.21×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 64$0.230.1%098.50.00×
StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 48$0.200.1%0132.20.00×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue1 in 43$0.190.2%0146.50.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/yes, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$3.1290.96%150
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$3.1291.35%150
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$3.1291.55%150
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$3.1291.32%150
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$3.1291.60%150
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$3.1291.25%150
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$3.1291.42%150
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$3.1290.92%150
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$3.1291.09%150
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$3.1291.53%150
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$3.1291.05%150
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$3.1290.92%150
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$3.1290.23%150
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$3.1291.38%150
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$3.1291.66%150
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$3.1291.45%150
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$3.1291.54%150
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$3.1291.45%150
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$3.1291.41%150
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$3.1291.61%150
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$3.1291.60%150
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$3.1290.89%150
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$3.1291.52%150
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$3.1290.70%150
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$3.1291.10%150
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$3.1291.18%150
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$3.1291.57%150
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$3.1291.23%150
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$3.1290.85%150
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$3.1291.36%150
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 44.4%covert 0.4%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 7.0%mil spec 1.6%covert knife 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%#EB4B4B 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%Legendary 2.4%Ancient 0.0%#d32ee6 0.6%Mythical 11.3%pink 2.2%Restricted 4.9%#d32ce6 0.4%Consumer Grade 0.7%#8847ff 8.6%Mil Spec Grade 6.9%violet 1.8%milspec 4.1%blue 2.3%best hit $240 (76.83x)