AK-47 Case

A case on Hellcase (devices), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$5.50

Advertised RTP

86.00%

EV $4.73 from 248 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.88%

6,588 openings, odds method

Variance

13.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 49

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

73.13%±31.37512 openings

7 days

80.53%±11.583,753 openings

30 days

78.88%±8.966,588 openings

since tracking started

78.88%±8.966,588 openings

41.0%73.0%105.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	512	73.13%±31.4	−0.8σ	odds
7d	3,753	80.53%±11.6	−0.8σ	odds
30d	6,588	78.88%±8.96	−1.3σ	odds
All	6,588	78.88%±8.96	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values248 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,624 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$684	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$655	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$532	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$497	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$411	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$402	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$386	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$375	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20,000	$374	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$360	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 16,667	$337	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 16,667	$328	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$328	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$296	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$296	0.4%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 16,667	$293	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$286	0.4%	3	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$267	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$249	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$230	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$228	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$228	0.4%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$226	0.4%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 12,500	$221	0.4%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$221	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$221	0.4%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$213	0.4%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 11,111	$210	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$207	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$200	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$197	0.4%	1	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$196	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$195	0.4%	1	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$193	0.4%	3	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$183	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$183	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$168	0.4%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$167	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$167	0.4%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$164	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$160	0.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$157	0.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 7,692	$151	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$150	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$146	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$146	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$144	0.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$144	0.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$144	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$143	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$142	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$139	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$139	0.4%	3	0.9	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$139	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 7,143	$137	0.4%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$137	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 7,143	$134	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$133	0.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$129	0.4%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$129	0.4%	3	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$127	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$126	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$126	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$125	0.4%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$123	0.4%	2	1.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$122	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$121	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$121	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$121	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$119	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$118	0.4%	3	1.1	2.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$117	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$116	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$111	0.4%	1	1.2	0.84×
AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 5,556	$111	0.4%	2	1.2	1.68×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$111	0.4%	2	1.1	1.78×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$111	0.4%	2	1.2	1.68×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$110	0.4%	2	1.1	1.78×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$109	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$106	0.4%	1	1.2	0.84×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$106	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$104	0.4%	1	1.3	0.79×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$99.98	0.4%	3	1.3	2.38×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$99.47	0.4%	1	1.3	0.79×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$99.23	0.4%	1	1.3	0.79×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$97.34	0.4%	1	1.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$96.22	0.4%	2	1.3	1.59×
AK-47 \| First Class (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 5,000	$94.74	0.4%	1	1.3	0.75×
AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$93.58	0.4%	2	1.3	1.51×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$92.61	0.4%	1	1.4	0.72×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$89.66	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$88.30	0.4%	1	1.4	0.72×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$88.29	0.4%	1	1.5	0.69×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$85.27	0.4%	2	1.5	1.37×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$84.60	0.4%	1	1.5	0.69×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$82.95	0.4%	1	1.5	0.66×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$81.86	0.4%	4	1.6	2.52×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$80.50	0.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$80.21	0.4%	3	1.6	1.89×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$79.97	0.4%	3	1.6	1.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$78.61	0.4%	3	1.7	1.81×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$77.77	0.4%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,000	$75.18	0.4%	3	1.7	1.81×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,846	$73.16	0.4%	1	1.7	0.58×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$69.76	0.4%	1	1.8	0.56×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,704	$69.12	0.4%	1	1.8	0.56×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,571	$67.80	0.4%	3	1.9	1.62×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$67.31	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,448	$66.64	0.4%	4	1.9	2.08×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$66.12	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 3,448	$65.72	0.4%	2	1.9	1.04×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,448	$64.85	0.4%	1	1.9	0.52×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 3,448	$64.61	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$63.79	0.4%	6	2.0	3.02×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$62.93	0.4%	2	2.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,226	$62.15	0.4%	2	2.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$61.71	0.4%	2	2.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$60.80	0.4%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$59.32	0.4%	4	2.2	1.83×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$59.32	0.4%	2	2.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$55.73	0.4%	1	2.3	0.44×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$55.32	0.4%	1	2.3	0.43×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$55.05	0.4%	2	2.3	0.86×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$54.50	0.4%	1	2.3	0.43×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$53.16	0.4%	2	2.4	0.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$52.86	0.4%	2	2.4	0.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$51.84	0.4%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$51.25	0.4%	2	2.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,632	$50.30	0.4%	1	2.5	0.40×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$49.95	0.4%	1	2.6	0.39×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$45.76	0.4%	1	2.8	0.36×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$45.27	0.4%	5	2.8	1.80×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$44.36	0.4%	6	2.8	2.11×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,273	$43.85	0.4%	4	2.9	1.37×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,273	$43.42	0.4%	1	2.9	0.34×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$43.12	0.4%	1	2.9	0.34×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,222	$42.46	0.4%	1	3.0	0.34×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,128	$41.01	0.4%	0	3.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$40.21	0.4%	4	3.2	1.26×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$38.93	0.4%	4	3.2	1.23×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,961	$37.89	0.4%	2	3.4	0.59×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,923	$36.78	0.4%	2	3.4	0.58×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$36.28	0.4%	2	3.5	0.57×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$36.28	0.4%	4	3.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$36.02	0.4%	5	3.5	1.42×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,852	$35.43	0.4%	4	3.6	1.12×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,852	$35.35	0.4%	6	3.6	1.68×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$34.78	0.4%	1	3.6	0.27×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$33.75	0.4%	3	3.7	0.81×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,754	$33.23	0.4%	4	3.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,613	$30.97	0.4%	3	4.1	0.73×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$30.78	0.4%	5	4.1	1.22×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$30.50	0.4%	4	4.2	0.96×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,538	$29.19	0.4%	1	4.3	0.23×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,515	$29.12	0.4%	5	4.4	1.14×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,515	$28.80	0.4%	4	4.4	0.91×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,493	$28.35	0.4%	1	4.4	0.23×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,493	$28.32	0.4%	5	4.4	1.13×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$26.11	0.4%	4	4.8	0.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,333	$25.48	0.4%	4	5.0	0.81×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,316	$25.20	0.4%	2	5.0	0.40×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,250	$23.76	0.4%	3	5.3	0.57×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,176	$22.72	0.4%	4	5.6	0.71×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,163	$22.09	0.4%	9	5.7	1.58×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,053	$19.98	0.4%	5	6.3	0.79×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,031	$19.82	0.4%	5	6.4	0.78×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$19.13	0.4%	8	6.6	1.21×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 990	$18.87	0.4%	10	6.7	1.49×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 971	$18.70	0.4%	7	6.8	1.03×
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 971	$18.60	0.4%	7	6.8	1.03×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 971	$18.49	0.4%	4	6.8	0.59×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 952	$18.14	0.4%	7	7.0	1.01×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 943	$18.10	0.4%	3	7.0	0.43×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 926	$17.64	0.4%	2	7.2	0.28×
AK-47 \| Predator (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 926	$17.60	0.4%	5	7.2	0.70×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 870	$16.69	0.4%	8	7.6	1.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 862	$16.50	0.4%	6	7.7	0.78×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 847	$16.27	0.4%	5	7.8	0.64×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 847	$16.20	0.4%	10	7.8	1.28×
AK-47 \| Predator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 806	$15.42	0.4%	8	8.2	0.97×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 787	$15.03	0.4%	6	8.4	0.71×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 769	$14.73	0.4%	7	8.6	0.81×
AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 752	$14.43	0.4%	4	8.8	0.45×
AK-47 \| Predator (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 746	$14.24	0.4%	9	8.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 704	$13.51	0.4%	9	9.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 694	$13.25	0.4%	3	9.5	0.31×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 658	$12.60	0.4%	8	10.1	0.79×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 658	$12.56	0.4%	7	10.1	0.70×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 641	$12.23	0.4%	8	10.3	0.77×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 625	$11.94	0.4%	8	10.6	0.75×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 613	$11.74	0.4%	9	10.8	0.83×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 602	$11.54	0.4%	5	11.0	0.45×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 592	$11.26	0.4%	15	11.2	1.34×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 526	$10.03	0.4%	10	12.6	0.79×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 515	$9.87	0.4%	9	12.9	0.70×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 483	$9.22	0.4%	24	13.7	1.75×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 478	$9.14	0.4%	19	13.8	1.37×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 455	$8.71	0.4%	15	14.6	1.03×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 413	$7.90	0.4%	13	16.0	0.81×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 383	$7.34	0.4%	18	17.3	1.04×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 372	$7.12	0.4%	13	17.8	0.73×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 356	$6.81	0.4%	20	18.6	1.07×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 350	$6.67	0.4%	19	18.9	1.00×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 336	$6.41	0.4%	23	19.7	1.17×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 326	$6.22	0.4%	25	20.3	1.23×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 321	$6.13	0.4%	19	20.7	0.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 312	$5.95	0.4%	17	21.3	0.80×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 302	$5.78	0.4%	20	21.9	0.91×
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 302	$5.78	0.4%	23	21.9	1.05×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 264	$5.05	0.4%	31	25.1	1.23×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 258	$4.93	0.4%	27	25.7	1.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 257	$4.91	0.4%	23	25.8	0.89×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 255	$4.87	0.4%	31	26.0	1.19×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 251	$4.81	0.4%	22	26.4	0.83×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 248	$4.74	0.4%	26	26.8	0.97×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 244	$4.60	0.4%	21	27.1	0.78×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 243	$4.57	0.4%	19	27.2	0.70×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 242	$4.55	0.4%	25	27.4	0.91×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 235	$4.41	0.4%	31	28.2	1.10×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 218	$4.09	0.4%	24	30.4	0.79×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 216	$4.06	0.4%	24	30.7	0.78×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 211	$3.96	0.4%	26	31.5	0.83×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 204	$3.83	0.4%	33	32.5	1.02×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 196	$3.69	0.4%	41	33.7	1.22×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 188	$3.54	0.4%	34	35.2	0.97×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 187	$3.51	0.4%	41	35.5	1.15×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 182	$3.43	0.4%	42	36.3	1.16×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 153	$2.88	0.4%	43	43.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 147	$2.77	0.4%	50	44.9	1.11×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 145	$2.73	0.4%	53	45.6	1.16×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 145	$2.72	0.4%	50	45.8	1.09×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 136	$2.55	0.4%	67	48.8	1.37×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$2.50	0.4%	48	49.7	0.96×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 130	$2.45	0.4%	57	50.8	1.12×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$2.44	0.4%	47	51.0	0.92×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 122	$2.29	0.4%	63	54.3	1.16×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 121	$2.28	0.4%	57	54.6	1.04×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 118	$2.21	0.4%	60	56.4	1.06×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 113	$2.12	0.4%	43	58.7	0.73×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$2.08	0.4%	80	59.9	1.34×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 62	$1.16	0.4%	122	107.3	1.14×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 55	$1.04	0.4%	107	119.6	0.89×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 51	$0.95	0.4%	138	131.0	1.05×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 51	$0.95	0.4%	120	131.0	0.92×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 16	$0.31	0.4%	439	401.5	1.09×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	18.8%	$0.10	0.4%	1,333	1244.7	1.07×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	18.8%	$0.10	0.4%	1,286	1244.7	1.03×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	18.8%	$0.10	0.4%	1,111	1244.7	0.89×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/ak47, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertJasonX$5.50$45282.21x4d

AK-47 | Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedi$5.50$29653.73x3d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified100a$4.62$28661.96x8d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedPuNKsteR PT$5.50$28651.93x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified👉 GiMbo🔥$5.50$28651.93x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · bluewellex27k$5.50$2.290.42x17m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialwellex27k$5.50$0.100.02x17m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ffwellex27k$5.50$0.100.02x17m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialwellex27k$5.50$0.100.02x18m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialFughu$5.50$0.100.02x21m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonAlpicio 007$5.50$0.100.02x31m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ffFughu$5.50$0.100.02x35m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff\.|./ Nádegas a declarar!$5.50$0.100.02x1h

AK-47 | Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue\.|./ Nádegas a declarar!$5.50$2.290.42x1h

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff\.|./ Nádegas a declarar!$5.50$0.100.02x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$5.50	86.00%	248
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$5.50	85.98%	248
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$5.50	86.09%	248
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$5.50	85.79%	248
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$5.50	86.00%	248
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$5.50	85.84%	248
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$5.50	86.07%	248
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$5.50	85.94%	248
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$5.50	86.07%	248
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$5.50	85.84%	248
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC	$5.50	86.04%	248
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$4.62	85.94%	248
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$4.62	86.16%	248

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.2%classified 2.8%mil spec 6.3%Covert 0.0%restricted 6.6%red 0.1%industrial 27.5%Ancient 0.1%rare 0.0%#d32ee6 0.4%#8847ff 0.0%Classified 0.2%violet 0.5%Mythical 2.7%Restricted 0.2%Legendary 0.2%blue 2.6%pink 0.3%milspec 4.4%Uncommon 19.2%light blue 0.5%Rare 4.9%#4b69ff 0.7%#87c7ff 18.8%best hit $452 (82.21x)