All Is Well

A case on Hellcase (event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$45.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $39.60 from 122 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.40%

341 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

90.49%±15.51296 openings

30 days

86.40%±14.45341 openings

since tracking started

86.40%±14.45341 openings

42.0%85.0%128.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	85.05%±42.2	—	odds
7d	296	90.49%±15.5	+0.3σ	odds
30d	341	86.40%±14.5	−0.2σ	odds
All	341	86.40%±14.5	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values122 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 341 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$1,072	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,500	$770	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,852	$569	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$530	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$465	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,493	$457	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,471	$449	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,449	$444	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$443	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,449	$443	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,449	$440	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,370	$419	0.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,351	$418	0.8%	1	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,266	$384	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$358	0.8%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$343	0.8%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,053	$322	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,031	$317	0.8%	1	0.3	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,031	$317	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 746	$228	0.8%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$219	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 676	$207	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 671	$204	0.8%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 662	$203	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 637	$195	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 629	$192	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 599	$183	0.8%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 562	$173	0.8%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 541	$165	0.8%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 510	$156	0.8%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 505	$155	0.8%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 495	$152	0.8%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 493	$150	0.8%	1	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 474	$145	0.8%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 472	$144	0.8%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 467	$143	0.8%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 463	$142	0.8%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 459	$140	0.8%	2	0.7	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 452	$139	0.8%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 410	$126	0.8%	1	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 410	$125	0.8%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 403	$123	0.8%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 366	$112	0.8%	2	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 362	$111	0.8%	1	0.9	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 362	$111	0.8%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 351	$107	0.8%	3	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 340	$104	0.8%	3	1.0	2.99×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$99.47	0.8%	1	1.1	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 322	$98.55	0.8%	1	1.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 322	$98.35	0.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 309	$94.46	0.8%	1	1.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 308	$94.23	0.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 306	$93.56	0.8%	3	1.1	2.69×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 278	$85.22	0.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 279	$85.21	0.8%	1	1.2	0.82×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 278	$84.88	0.8%	2	1.2	1.63×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 273	$83.51	0.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 272	$83.24	0.8%	2	1.3	1.59×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 272	$83.09	0.8%	2	1.3	1.59×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 269	$82.24	0.8%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 266	$81.42	0.8%	2	1.3	1.56×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 265	$80.93	0.8%	1	1.3	0.78×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 259	$79.28	0.8%	1	1.3	0.76×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 254	$77.82	0.8%	3	1.3	2.24×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 246	$75.23	0.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$74.66	0.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 240	$73.36	0.8%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 238	$72.82	0.8%	3	1.4	2.09×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 237	$72.47	0.8%	2	1.4	1.39×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 236	$72.26	0.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 236	$72.24	0.8%	1	1.4	0.69×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 232	$71.09	0.8%	2	1.5	1.36×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 233	$71.02	0.8%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 229	$70.14	0.8%	2	1.5	1.35×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 229	$70.09	0.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 225	$68.81	0.8%	2	1.5	1.32×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 224	$68.53	0.8%	1	1.5	0.66×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 223	$68.19	0.8%	2	1.5	1.31×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 219	$66.88	0.8%	2	1.6	1.28×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 211	$64.64	0.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 180	$55.00	0.8%	2	1.9	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 177	$54.30	0.8%	4	1.9	2.08×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$52.46	0.8%	3	2.0	1.51×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 171	$52.27	0.8%	2	2.0	1.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 171	$52.21	0.8%	2	2.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 168	$51.46	0.8%	4	2.0	1.97×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 167	$51.03	0.8%	0	2.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 165	$50.36	0.8%	3	2.1	1.45×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 156	$47.87	0.8%	0	2.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 153	$46.92	0.8%	0	2.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 152	$46.44	0.8%	3	2.2	1.34×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 148	$45.37	0.8%	5	2.3	2.18×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 147	$45.07	0.8%	6	2.3	2.59×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 147	$44.93	0.8%	2	2.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 144	$44.14	0.8%	4	2.4	1.69×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 134	$41.06	0.8%	0	2.5	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 132	$40.54	0.8%	3	2.6	1.17×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 131	$40.02	0.8%	3	2.6	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 91	$36.57	1.0%	6	3.7	1.61×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 90	$36.04	1.0%	4	3.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 90	$35.93	1.0%	3	3.8	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 89	$35.83	1.0%	8	3.8	2.10×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 77	$30.81	1.0%	5	4.4	1.13×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 75	$30.05	1.0%	9	4.5	1.98×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$24.27	1.0%	8	5.6	1.42×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 49	$19.54	1.0%	5	7.0	0.72×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$18.98	1.0%	4	7.2	0.56×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 47	$18.82	1.0%	10	7.3	1.38×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 45	$17.88	1.0%	5	7.6	0.65×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 45	$17.85	1.0%	9	7.6	1.18×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 43	$17.39	1.0%	10	7.9	1.27×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 43	$17.30	1.0%	7	7.9	0.89×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 41	$16.23	1.0%	9	8.4	1.07×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$14.72	1.0%	8	9.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 36	$14.24	1.0%	4	9.6	0.42×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 31	$12.28	1.0%	6	11.1	0.54×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 26	$10.45	1.0%	16	13.1	1.22×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$8.65	1.0%	13	15.8	0.82×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$8.54	1.0%	15	16.0	0.94×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$6.34	1.0%	22	21.5	1.02×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$6.04	1.0%	21	22.6	0.93×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$5.84	1.0%	25	23.4	1.07×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/all-is-well, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Toybox (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6K̵̮̽͗T̵̡̟̳̯̳̳̩͚͑Z$45.00$17.850.40x19s

MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedK̵̮̽͗T̵̡̟̳̯̳̳̩͚͑Z$45.00$8.650.19x1m

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertTruemperor$45.00$50.361.12x28m

AK-47 | Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covertTruemperor$45.00$1042.31x38m

MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedTruemperor$45.00$6.040.13x38m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertTruemperor$45.00$71.091.58x41m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertTruemperor$45.00$1403.12x43m

MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedLa Caillette"$45.00$6.040.13x2h

AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBierBerg$45.00$52.461.17x2h

MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBierBerg$45.00$14.720.33x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$45.00	88.00%	122
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$45.00	88.01%	122
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$45.00	87.93%	122
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$45.00	87.98%	122
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$45.00	87.99%	122
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$45.00	87.99%	122
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$45.00	88.01%	122
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$45.00	88.01%	122
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$45.00	87.99%	122
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$45.00	87.99%	122
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$45.00	87.98%	122

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.4%covert knife 0.4%Covert 0.9%Ancient 1.8%Classified 2.7%rare 1.2%red 4.4%classified 50.9%pink 10.2%#eb4b4b 0.7%#d32ce6 0.8%Legendary 1.3%#d32ee6 4.4%best hit —