Ancient Wilderness

A case on Hellcase (trending), first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

88.03%

EV $1.76 from 182 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.34%

1,326 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

108.47%±22.63207 openings

7 days

91.34%±8.981,326 openings

30 days

91.34%±8.981,326 openings

since tracking started

91.34%±8.981,326 openings

81.5%106.7%132.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	207	108.47%±22.6	+1.8σ	odds
7d	1,326	91.34%±8.98	+0.7σ	odds
30d	1,326	91.34%±8.98	+0.7σ	odds
All	1,326	91.34%±8.98	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values182 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,382 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$96.73	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 8,333	$93.73	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$89.10	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 7,143	$80.82	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 6,667	$74.48	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,846	$43.69	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$38.93	0.6%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$32.75	0.6%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,326	$25.80	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,222	$24.56	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$20.45	0.6%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,695	$19.07	0.6%	1	0.8	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$17.88	0.6%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,562	$17.35	0.6%	2	0.9	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,538	$17.20	0.6%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 1,515	$16.91	0.6%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,493	$16.63	0.6%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,389	$15.39	0.6%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,299	$14.49	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,282	$14.24	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,220	$13.69	0.6%	4	1.1	3.53×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,149	$12.88	0.6%	1	1.2	0.83×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 980	$10.91	0.6%	1	1.4	0.71×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 917	$10.20	0.6%	1	1.5	0.66×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 901	$10.04	0.6%	2	1.5	1.30×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 885	$9.88	0.6%	1	1.6	0.64×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 862	$9.63	0.6%	3	1.6	1.87×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 826	$9.20	0.6%	3	1.7	1.79×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 820	$9.18	0.6%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 820	$9.17	0.6%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 813	$9.07	0.6%	1	1.7	0.59×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 800	$8.91	0.6%	2	1.7	1.16×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 794	$8.89	0.6%	4	1.7	2.30×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 781	$8.71	0.6%	3	1.8	1.70×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$8.59	0.6%	5	1.8	2.78×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 746	$8.28	0.6%	1	1.9	0.54×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 741	$8.26	0.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 725	$8.07	0.6%	1	1.9	0.52×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 709	$7.94	0.6%	2	1.9	1.03×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 676	$7.52	0.6%	2	2.0	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 676	$7.51	0.6%	0	2.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 649	$7.28	0.6%	0	2.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 645	$7.16	0.6%	1	2.1	0.47×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 641	$7.14	0.6%	0	2.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 625	$6.95	0.6%	9	2.2	4.07×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 621	$6.92	0.6%	2	2.2	0.90×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 617	$6.89	0.6%	1	2.2	0.45×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 613	$6.84	0.6%	2	2.3	0.89×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 613	$6.82	0.6%	3	2.3	1.33×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 568	$6.35	0.6%	2	2.4	0.82×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 565	$6.31	0.6%	4	2.4	1.64×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 552	$6.16	0.6%	4	2.5	1.60×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 538	$6.00	0.6%	6	2.6	2.33×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 535	$5.96	0.6%	1	2.6	0.39×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 532	$5.92	0.6%	5	2.6	1.92×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 437	$4.87	0.6%	3	3.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 435	$4.85	0.6%	3	3.2	0.94×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 429	$4.78	0.6%	4	3.2	1.24×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 417	$4.64	0.6%	6	3.3	1.81×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 407	$4.54	0.6%	7	3.4	2.06×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 389	$4.33	0.6%	4	3.6	1.13×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 383	$4.28	0.6%	3	3.6	0.83×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 382	$4.25	0.6%	4	3.6	1.10×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 377	$4.21	0.6%	5	3.7	1.37×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 376	$4.20	0.6%	3	3.7	0.82×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 373	$4.15	0.6%	4	3.7	1.08×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 369	$4.11	0.6%	1	3.7	0.27×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 361	$4.03	0.6%	3	3.8	0.78×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 360	$4.02	0.6%	4	3.8	1.04×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 358	$4.00	0.6%	5	3.9	1.30×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 358	$4.00	0.6%	4	3.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 351	$3.91	0.6%	7	3.9	1.78×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 346	$3.86	0.6%	3	4.0	0.75×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 345	$3.84	0.6%	5	4.0	1.25×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 325	$3.62	0.6%	4	4.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 324	$3.61	0.6%	4	4.3	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 323	$3.60	0.6%	5	4.3	1.17×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 317	$3.54	0.6%	7	4.4	1.61×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 294	$3.28	0.6%	1	4.7	0.21×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 267	$2.98	0.6%	4	5.2	0.77×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 265	$2.95	0.6%	10	5.2	1.91×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 262	$2.92	0.6%	6	5.3	1.14×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 257	$2.86	0.6%	10	5.4	1.86×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 248	$2.76	0.6%	6	5.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 234	$2.61	0.6%	9	5.9	1.53×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 229	$2.55	0.6%	6	6.0	0.99×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 225	$2.51	0.6%	6	6.1	0.98×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 222	$2.48	0.6%	8	6.2	1.29×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 218	$2.44	0.6%	5	6.3	0.79×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 217	$2.42	0.6%	8	6.4	1.26×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 216	$2.40	0.6%	5	6.4	0.78×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 211	$2.35	0.6%	7	6.6	1.07×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 205	$2.29	0.6%	6	6.7	0.89×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 187	$2.08	0.6%	5	7.4	0.67×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 186	$2.07	0.6%	4	7.4	0.54×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 184	$2.05	0.6%	10	7.5	1.33×
P250 \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 181	$2.02	0.6%	7	7.6	0.92×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 181	$2.02	0.6%	7	7.6	0.92×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 180	$2.01	0.6%	8	7.7	1.04×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 180	$2.01	0.6%	8	7.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 179	$1.99	0.6%	8	7.7	1.03×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 173	$1.93	0.6%	13	8.0	1.63×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 170	$1.90	0.6%	8	8.1	0.99×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 169	$1.89	0.6%	7	8.2	0.86×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 166	$1.85	0.6%	10	8.3	1.20×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 164	$1.83	0.6%	8	8.4	0.95×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 163	$1.82	0.6%	11	8.5	1.30×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 224	$1.69	0.4%	10	6.2	1.62×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 212	$1.60	0.4%	10	6.5	1.53×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 209	$1.58	0.4%	10	6.6	1.51×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 205	$1.55	0.4%	6	6.7	0.89×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 201	$1.52	0.4%	7	6.9	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$1.51	0.4%	5	6.9	0.72×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 193	$1.46	0.4%	3	7.1	0.42×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 192	$1.45	0.4%	6	7.2	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 191	$1.44	0.4%	14	7.2	1.93×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 190	$1.44	0.4%	10	7.3	1.38×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 188	$1.42	0.4%	10	7.4	1.36×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 186	$1.40	0.4%	9	7.4	1.21×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 184	$1.39	0.4%	7	7.5	0.93×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$1.36	0.4%	8	7.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 178	$1.34	0.4%	5	7.8	0.64×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 172	$1.30	0.4%	11	8.0	1.37×
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 171	$1.29	0.4%	8	8.1	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 168	$1.27	0.4%	10	8.2	1.22×
MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 164	$1.24	0.4%	9	8.4	1.07×
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 162	$1.22	0.4%	8	8.6	0.94×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 160	$1.21	0.4%	6	8.6	0.70×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 159	$1.20	0.4%	6	8.7	0.69×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 157	$1.19	0.4%	7	8.8	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 157	$1.19	0.4%	4	8.8	0.46×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 155	$1.17	0.4%	13	8.9	1.46×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 152	$1.15	0.4%	7	9.1	0.77×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 148	$1.12	0.4%	14	9.3	1.50×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 148	$1.12	0.4%	7	9.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 148	$1.12	0.4%	11	9.3	1.18×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 146	$1.10	0.4%	18	9.5	1.90×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$1.08	0.4%	5	9.7	0.52×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$1.08	0.4%	18	9.7	1.86×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 142	$1.07	0.4%	11	9.8	1.13×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 140	$1.06	0.4%	11	9.9	1.12×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 136	$1.03	0.4%	5	10.1	0.49×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 136	$1.03	0.4%	7	10.1	0.69×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 132	$1.00	0.4%	14	10.4	1.34×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 130	$0.98	0.4%	10	10.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 128	$0.97	0.4%	8	10.8	0.74×
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 124	$0.94	0.4%	17	11.1	1.53×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 122	$0.92	0.4%	10	11.3	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 118	$0.89	0.4%	11	11.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 116	$0.88	0.4%	11	11.9	0.93×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 110	$0.83	0.4%	9	12.6	0.72×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 109	$0.82	0.4%	9	12.7	0.71×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 106	$0.80	0.4%	7	13.0	0.54×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 102	$0.77	0.4%	12	13.6	0.89×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$0.76	0.4%	10	13.7	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$0.74	0.4%	15	14.1	1.06×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$0.74	0.4%	16	14.1	1.13×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 98	$0.74	0.4%	14	14.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$0.74	0.4%	13	14.1	0.92×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 95	$0.72	0.4%	11	14.5	0.76×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 95	$0.72	0.4%	10	14.5	0.69×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 93	$0.70	0.4%	15	14.9	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 89	$0.67	0.4%	16	15.6	1.03×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 89	$0.67	0.4%	17	15.6	1.09×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 89	$0.67	0.4%	20	15.6	1.28×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 87	$0.66	0.4%	12	15.8	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 86	$0.65	0.4%	11	16.1	0.68×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 82	$0.62	0.4%	21	16.8	1.25×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$0.54	0.4%	15	19.3	0.78×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.48	0.4%	20	21.8	0.92×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 62	$0.47	0.4%	20	22.2	0.90×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 57	$0.43	0.4%	24	24.3	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 57	$0.43	0.4%	21	24.3	0.86×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 53	$0.40	0.4%	21	26.1	0.80×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$0.40	0.4%	16	26.1	0.61×
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 49	$0.37	0.4%	31	28.2	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.37	0.4%	25	28.2	0.89×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 48	$0.36	0.4%	40	29.0	1.38×
P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 46	$0.35	0.4%	24	29.8	0.80×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 44	$0.33	0.4%	26	31.6	0.82×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 44	$0.33	0.4%	32	31.6	1.01×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 37	$0.28	0.4%	35	37.3	0.94×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/ancient-wilderness, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$2.00$5.922.96x5m

StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$2.00$9.184.59x5m

StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$2.00$0.430.22x5m

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$2.00$6.953.48x6m

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue$2.00$2.421.21x6m

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$2.00$6.953.48x7m

StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$2.00$0.430.22x8m

Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.00$1.030.52x8m

MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$2.00$1.510.76x9m

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec$2.00$0.540.27x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$2.00	88.03%	182
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$2.00	87.97%	182
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$2.00	88.34%	182
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.00	88.01%	182
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$2.00	87.98%	182
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$2.00	88.02%	182
6 Nov, 23:48 UTC	$2.00	87.97%	182

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.6%3 0.6%covert 0.0%red 0.0%Covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%Legendary 0.2%classified 2.7%mil spec 16.0%restricted 21.8%pink 1.1%Mythical 2.5%milspec 27.3%blue 8.1%Rare 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 1.2%Classified 0.3%#8847ff 2.1%violet 1.2%Mil Spec 0.6%#4b69ff 11.2%best hit —