Aurafuse

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$48.40
Advertised RTP
88.02%
EV $42.60 from 161 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.12%
314 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
12 openings · below min
7 days
98.26%±20.00302 openings
30 days
98.12%±19.61314 openings
since tracking started
98.12%±19.61314 openings
7.5%107.0%206.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h12107.04%±98.8—odds
7d30298.26%±20.0+1.0σodds
30d31498.12%±19.6+1.0σodds
All31498.12%±19.6+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values161 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 322 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$4,8910.6%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1,9640.6%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1,4030.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 5,263$1,2650.6%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 4,545$1,1160.6%00.1—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,448$8070.5%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 3,226$7750.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 2,857$6850.6%00.1—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,703$6440.6%00.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 2,222$5270.6%10.1—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 2,128$5070.6%00.2—
AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,083$4990.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,083$4970.6%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,961$4640.6%00.2—
★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 1,852$4450.6%00.2—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,818$4320.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,667$4020.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,667$3980.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,639$3890.6%00.2—
AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,587$3750.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 1,562$3750.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 1,515$3670.6%00.2—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,515$3660.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,515$3660.6%10.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,515$3650.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,493$3550.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,471$3520.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 1,429$3410.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 1,408$3370.6%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,351$3240.6%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,266$3030.6%10.3—
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,250$3020.6%00.3—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,250$2970.6%00.3—
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,190$2850.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,176$2840.6%00.3—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,176$2800.6%20.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,163$2770.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,149$2760.6%10.3—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,111$2680.6%00.3—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,111$2670.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,111$2670.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,010$2430.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,010$2410.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 990$2380.6%10.3—
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 980$2350.6%00.3—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 980$2350.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 971$2320.6%10.3—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 952$2280.6%10.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 926$2210.6%00.3—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 893$2140.6%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 862$2070.6%00.4—
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 813$1960.6%10.4—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 806$1930.6%00.4—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 800$1920.6%10.4—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 763$1830.6%00.4—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 758$1810.6%20.4—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 735$1760.6%10.4—
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 714$1710.6%10.5—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 694$1670.6%00.5—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 685$1640.6%20.5—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 685$1640.6%10.5—
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 680$1630.6%00.5—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 667$1600.6%20.5—
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 645$1550.6%10.5—
★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 637$1530.6%20.5—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 633$1510.6%00.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 629$1510.6%10.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 606$1460.6%00.5—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 606$1460.6%20.5—
M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 606$1460.6%20.5—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 599$1440.6%20.5—
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 592$1410.6%00.5—
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 588$1410.6%40.5—
P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified1 in 578$1390.6%20.6—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 575$1380.6%00.6—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 571$1370.6%00.6—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 552$1330.6%00.6—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 549$1320.6%00.6—
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 541$1300.6%10.6—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 535$1290.6%00.6—
AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 529$1270.6%20.6—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 510$1220.6%10.6—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 508$1220.6%00.6—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 505$1210.6%10.6—
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 505$1210.6%00.6—
AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 495$1180.6%00.7—
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 490$1170.6%00.7—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 485$1160.6%00.7—
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 483$1160.6%00.7—
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 481$1160.6%00.7—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 476$1140.6%10.7—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 474$1140.6%10.7—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 469$1130.6%00.7—
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 465$1120.6%20.7—
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 450$1080.6%00.7—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 427$1030.6%10.8—
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 424$1020.6%00.8—
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 417$1000.6%00.8—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 417$99.980.6%30.8—
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 415$99.440.6%10.8—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 413$99.230.6%00.8—
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 407$97.340.6%20.8—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 403$96.660.6%10.8—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 389$93.360.6%10.8—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 375$89.720.6%30.9—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 375$89.660.6%10.9—
★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny1 in 370$88.670.6%10.9—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 368$88.290.6%00.9—
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 350$83.640.6%00.9—
P250 | Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 348$83.510.6%00.9—
★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 341$81.830.6%10.9—
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 338$81.070.6%11.0—
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 336$80.540.6%41.0—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 336$80.510.6%11.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 334$80.210.6%11.0—
★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 328$78.740.6%21.0—
★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 319$76.610.6%01.00.00×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 305$73.160.6%11.10.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 292$69.760.6%11.10.91×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 282$67.650.6%51.14.37×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 260$62.370.6%11.20.81×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 258$61.710.6%31.22.40×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 256$61.330.6%01.30.00×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 248$59.420.6%11.30.77×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 246$59.010.6%31.32.29×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 230$55.320.6%21.41.43×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 229$55.050.6%41.42.85×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 227$54.500.6%01.40.00×
AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 225$54.050.6%11.40.70×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 222$53.160.6%11.50.69×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 214$51.250.6%01.50.00×
AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 207$49.750.6%01.60.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 202$48.570.6%01.60.00×
P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 200$47.870.6%01.60.00×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 193$46.230.6%21.71.20×
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 190$45.560.6%51.72.95×
P250 | Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 187$44.930.6%01.70.00×
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 186$44.630.6%11.70.58×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 186$44.520.6%31.71.73×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 184$44.080.6%21.81.14×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 98$41.921.0%33.30.91×
P250 | Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 94$40.541.0%23.40.59×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 89$38.211.0%63.61.66×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 88$37.891.0%43.71.10×
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 87$37.231.0%13.70.27×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 78$33.311.0%44.20.96×
M4A4 | Zirka (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 69$29.491.0%44.70.85×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 68$29.421.0%14.70.21×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 67$28.871.0%64.81.25×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 67$28.771.0%54.81.04×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 66$28.321.0%64.91.23×
M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 62$26.441.0%25.20.38×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 52$22.521.0%56.10.81×
M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 46$19.851.0%37.00.43×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 41$17.641.0%117.81.40×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 39$16.691.0%98.31.09×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 37$15.781.0%88.80.91×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 20$8.771.0%1415.80.89×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical12.3%$3.491.0%3839.60.96×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet12.6%$3.401.0%4740.71.16×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet15.2%$2.831.0%3748.90.76×
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/aurafuse, 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC$48.4088.02%161
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC$48.4088.03%161
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$48.4088.00%161
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC$48.4088.00%161
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC$48.4088.01%161
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC$48.4088.02%161
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC$48.4087.94%161
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC$48.4088.02%161
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC$48.4087.94%161
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 14.9%covert knife 1.4%classified 10.0%Restricted 0.1%Ancient 0.6%restricted 14.9%Covert 0.3%Legendary 0.1%pink 1.4%#d32ee6 0.1%sunny 0.7%rare 0.2%Classified 0.7%red 0.6%#d32ce6 1.1%Mythical 21.4%violet 31.6%best hit $527 (10.88x)