Autotronic

A case on Hellcase (skin-families), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$100.00

Advertised RTP

87.99%

EV $87.99 from 96 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.86%

57 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

50 openings · below min

30 days

57 openings · below min

since tracking started

57 openings · below min

-0.5%84.5%169.5%

Small sample. 57 openings and 19.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	69.06%±99.9	—	odds
7d	50	93.24%±29.1	—	odds
30d	57	88.86%±27.3	—	odds
All	57	88.86%±27.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values96 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 57 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 4,348	$1,597	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,000	$1,468	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 3,333	$1,250	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,226	$1,210	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 3,125	$1,180	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,125	$1,163	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,030	$1,137	0.4%	1	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,941	$1,120	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,778	$1,043	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,703	$1,036	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,632	$1,006	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,632	$978	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,632	$977	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$935	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,439	$908	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,381	$902	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 2,222	$848	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,222	$835	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,083	$797	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,128	$792	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,083	$783	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,041	$779	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,961	$734	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,786	$673	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,754	$662	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,562	$585	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,429	$534	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$497	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,220	$455	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,176	$444	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,064	$401	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,020	$384	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$379	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 990	$375	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 990	$370	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 980	$366	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 926	$349	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 909	$341	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 893	$337	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 870	$328	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 833	$313	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 826	$312	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 800	$301	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 725	$273	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 719	$271	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 671	$251	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 621	$234	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 621	$234	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 621	$234	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 599	$225	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 588	$222	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 581	$219	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 562	$212	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 549	$207	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 543	$204	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 515	$194	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 513	$193	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 476	$179	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 469	$176	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 444	$168	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 437	$164	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 431	$162	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 415	$156	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 391	$147	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 388	$146	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 379	$143	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 353	$133	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 350	$131	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 346	$130	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 340	$128	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 336	$127	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 334	$126	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 333	$126	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 330	$124	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 326	$123	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 321	$121	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 318	$120	0.4%	2	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 318	$120	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 309	$116	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 308	$116	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 297	$112	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 269	$101	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$81.79	4.6%	5	2.8	1.76×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$81.42	4.6%	3	2.9	1.05×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 18	$74.58	4.6%	0	3.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 18	$72.82	4.6%	3	3.2	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$72.26	4.6%	4	3.2	1.24×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 17	$70.09	4.6%	3	3.3	0.90×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 17	$68.68	4.6%	3	3.4	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 16	$66.06	4.6%	2	3.5	0.57×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 15	$62.68	4.6%	7	3.7	1.89×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 15	$62.68	4.6%	5	3.7	1.35×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 15	$62.40	4.6%	5	3.7	1.34×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$54.30	4.6%	5	4.3	1.17×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$51.46	4.6%	4	4.5	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$50.36	4.6%	3	4.6	0.65×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/autotronic, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covertzat$100$1,07210.72x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold✪ darkQQ$100$62.680.63x7h

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertUser$100$50.360.50x12h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertUser$100$81.420.81x12h

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeUser$100$81.790.82x12h

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertBABA YAGA$100$50.360.50x1d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifejalli03$100$72.330.72x1d

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertjalli03$100$72.260.72x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · goldMeo Lessi$100$62.070.62x1d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert| FRA | グロック$100$81.420.81x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · goldar4ikops1$55.00$62.071.13x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$100	87.99%	96
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$100	88.00%	96
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$100	88.00%	96
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$100	88.01%	96
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$100	88.01%	96
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$100	88.00%	96
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$100	88.00%	96
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$100	87.99%	96
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$100	87.71%	96
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$100	88.00%	96
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$100	87.99%	96

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 21.4%covert 57.5%Covert 0.6%gold 13.3%sunny 0.2%Immortal 7.1%best hit $1,072 (10.72x)