Butterfly

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$900.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $792.00 from 153 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.22%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
0.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
2 openings · below min
7 days
18 openings · below min
30 days
18 openings · below min
since tracking started
18 openings · below min
23.5%77.5%131.5%

Small sample. 18 openings and 6.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h277.68%±53.3—odds
7d1887.22%±17.6—odds
30d1887.22%±17.6—odds
All1887.22%±17.6—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values153 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 769$3,6470.6%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 556$2,6380.6%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary1 in 467$2,2310.6%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 463$2,2080.6%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 461$2,1880.6%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 457$2,1750.6%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 418$1,9960.6%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 408$1,9430.6%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 405$1,9270.6%10.0—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 402$1,9130.6%00.0—
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 395$1,8800.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 392$1,8700.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 379$1,8080.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary1 in 376$1,7880.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 364$1,7280.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 342$1,6310.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 342$1,6290.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 342$1,6290.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 341$1,6280.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 338$1,6110.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 334$1,5970.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 319$1,5180.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 313$1,4890.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 311$1,4770.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 310$1,4740.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 289$1,3750.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 287$1,3690.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 282$1,3390.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 278$1,3200.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 276$1,3130.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 262$1,2500.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 253$1,2040.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 249$1,1880.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 249$1,1870.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 248$1,1820.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 244$1,1630.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 244$1,1610.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 241$1,1470.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 239$1,1370.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 235$1,1200.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 231$1,1000.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 225$1,0700.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 222$1,0560.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 219$1,0430.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 218$1,0360.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 216$1,0320.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 211$1,0070.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 208$9900.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 205$9770.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd7001 in 202$9600.6%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 201$9560.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 200$9490.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 198$9430.6%10.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 194$9240.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 194$9230.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 193$9200.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 193$9160.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 192$9120.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 189$8990.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 189$8990.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 188$8960.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 187$8920.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 183$8730.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 183$8720.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 179$8540.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 179$8500.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 178$8480.6%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 177$8410.6%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 174$8290.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 173$8240.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 172$8170.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 169$8070.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 167$7950.6%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 142$7910.7%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 142$7870.7%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 140$7790.7%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 140$7780.7%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 138$7640.7%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 137$7590.7%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 136$7540.7%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 136$7530.7%10.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 136$7520.7%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 135$7510.7%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 135$7500.7%10.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 134$7450.7%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 134$7440.7%00.1—
★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 133$7400.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 133$7390.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 132$7360.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 132$7340.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 130$7210.7%10.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Knives1 in 128$7130.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 128$7130.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 127$7050.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 125$6940.7%20.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 125$6920.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 124$6910.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 124$6900.7%20.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 124$6890.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 123$6860.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 123$6840.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 123$6830.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 123$6820.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 123$6810.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 122$6800.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 122$6770.7%10.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 121$6720.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 121$6720.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 119$6640.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 119$6630.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 119$6620.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 119$6610.7%10.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 118$6590.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 118$6570.7%10.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 114$6350.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 114$6330.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 113$6280.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 113$6280.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 112$6230.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 112$6220.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 111$6160.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 110$6100.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 109$6060.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 109$6030.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 108$6010.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 107$5960.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 107$5960.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 107$5940.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 107$5930.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 106$5920.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 106$5880.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 106$5870.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 105$5850.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 105$5820.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 102$5690.7%10.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 102$5660.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 101$5620.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 99$5520.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 99$5490.7%20.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 96$5330.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 96$5310.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 96$5310.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 95$5250.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 94$5210.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 93$5150.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 93$5140.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 93$5140.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 92$5110.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 91$5040.7%00.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 90$5000.7%00.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 89$4940.7%10.2—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 89$4930.7%10.2—
★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 88$4900.7%00.2—
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/butterfly-knife, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC$90088.00%153
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC$90088.00%153
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC$90088.00%153
9 Nov, 20:18 UTC$90088.00%153
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC$90088.00%153
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC$90088.00%153
6 Nov, 17:30 UTC$90088.00%153
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC$90088.00%152
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC$90087.94%152
4 Nov, 04:57 UTC$90088.00%152
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 1.9%covert knife 37.0%legendary 0.5%epic 0.5%covert 28.1%sunny 0.2%#EB4B4B 1.9%gold 28.5%#ffd700 0.5%Knives 0.8%best hit $1,927 (2.14x)