Clucking

A case on Hellcase (chicken-raise), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

87.97%

EV $1.76 from 214 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.33%

1,415 openings, odds method

Variance

4.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.57%±38.06121 openings

7 days

84.78%±11.981,207 openings

30 days

84.33%±11.081,415 openings

since tracking started

84.33%±11.081,415 openings

45.0%83.8%122.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	121	83.57%±38.1	−0.2σ	odds
7d	1,207	84.78%±12.0	−0.5σ	odds
30d	1,415	84.33%±11.1	−0.6σ	odds
All	1,415	84.33%±11.1	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values214 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,417 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 50,000	$205	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33,333	$123	0.2%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 33,333	$121	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$119	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$113	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 25,000	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 20,000	$89.05	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$80.94	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 20,000	$80.23	0.2%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$79.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 16,667	$72.86	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$70.28	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$67.80	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$66.01	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 14,286	$65.41	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 16,667	$65.15	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$63.11	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$62.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 14,286	$60.68	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 12,500	$55.14	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$53.32	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$52.86	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$51.84	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$49.95	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$49.67	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$49.63	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$46.45	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$45.93	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$45.53	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$45.27	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$44.82	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$43.96	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$43.87	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 11,111	$43.45	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$43.09	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$42.72	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$42.49	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$42.22	0.2%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$41.83	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$41.82	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$41.55	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 9,091	$40.29	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$39.42	0.2%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 8,333	$38.77	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$38.48	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$37.52	0.2%	1	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$35.65	0.2%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$35.26	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 8,333	$35.13	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 7,143	$32.03	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 7,692	$31.81	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$30.72	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$29.55	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$29.43	0.2%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$29.16	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$29.16	0.2%	0	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 6,250	$27.33	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$26.52	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$26.11	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 6,250	$26.06	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,882	$25.82	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,882	$25.33	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,882	$25.02	0.2%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$24.92	0.2%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$24.05	0.2%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,263	$23.76	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$23.55	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$23.18	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$23.09	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 5,263	$22.47	0.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$22.36	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$21.13	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$21.00	0.2%	0	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$20.92	0.2%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$20.85	0.2%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$18.87	0.2%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$18.70	0.2%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$17.98	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$17.94	0.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$16.86	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$16.41	0.3%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,704	$16.23	0.2%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$16.00	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 3,704	$15.94	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 3,571	$15.66	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$15.58	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$15.24	0.3%	2	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,448	$15.11	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,448	$15.08	0.2%	1	0.4	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$14.85	0.2%	1	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 3,448	$14.82	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$14.74	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$14.69	0.3%	1	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,333	$14.47	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$14.43	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,333	$14.24	0.2%	1	0.4	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$14.22	0.3%	0	0.4	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$14.03	0.2%	1	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 3,125	$13.84	0.3%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$13.75	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 3,226	$13.70	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 3,125	$13.69	0.2%	2	0.5	—
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,125	$13.45	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$13.38	0.3%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$13.27	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,125	$13.26	0.2%	0	0.5	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$13.22	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$13.17	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$12.29	0.2%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$12.07	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$12.03	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$11.94	0.2%	0	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,703	$11.84	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$11.48	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,564	$11.28	0.3%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$11.27	0.2%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,632	$11.25	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$10.91	0.2%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,381	$10.37	0.2%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,381	$10.36	0.2%	0	0.6	—
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$10.30	0.2%	3	0.6	—
AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,381	$10.17	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$10.07	0.2%	2	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$9.92	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 2,222	$9.69	0.2%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 2,174	$9.53	0.2%	1	0.7	—
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,222	$9.50	0.2%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,222	$9.50	0.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,174	$9.45	0.2%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,041	$8.87	0.2%	0	0.7	—
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$8.71	0.2%	1	0.7	—
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$8.68	0.2%	3	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,961	$8.45	0.2%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,818	$7.81	0.2%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,639	$7.11	0.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,639	$7.07	0.2%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,587	$6.99	0.3%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,562	$6.84	0.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,538	$6.64	0.2%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,538	$6.59	0.2%	0	0.9	—
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 1,493	$6.42	0.2%	0	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,449	$6.31	0.2%	1	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$6.26	0.2%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,429	$6.23	0.2%	1	1.0	—
AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,370	$5.96	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$5.91	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,333	$5.82	0.2%	1	1.1	0.94×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,316	$5.77	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,235	$5.34	0.2%	2	1.1	1.74×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 1,190	$5.18	0.2%	1	1.2	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,176	$5.09	0.2%	1	1.2	0.83×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,163	$5.08	0.2%	1	1.2	0.82×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,136	$4.97	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,149	$4.95	0.2%	1	1.2	0.81×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,099	$4.74	0.2%	1	1.3	0.78×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,087	$4.70	0.2%	3	1.3	2.30×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,031	$4.47	0.2%	1	1.4	0.73×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,020	$4.40	0.2%	1	1.4	0.72×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Memento (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 980	$4.25	0.2%	1	1.4	0.69×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 971	$4.20	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 943	$4.10	0.2%	2	1.5	1.33×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 943	$4.09	0.2%	1	1.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 926	$3.99	0.2%	2	1.5	1.31×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 877	$3.81	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 862	$3.72	0.2%	2	1.6	1.22×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 833	$3.62	0.2%	2	1.7	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 833	$3.61	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 820	$3.55	0.2%	2	1.7	1.16×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 813	$3.54	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
AWP \| Exothermic (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 813	$3.52	0.2%	3	1.7	1.72×
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 787	$3.43	0.2%	2	1.8	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 758	$3.30	0.2%	4	1.9	2.14×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 735	$3.21	0.2%	3	1.9	1.56×
AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 730	$3.17	0.2%	4	1.9	2.06×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 694	$3.01	0.2%	4	2.0	1.96×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 680	$2.95	0.2%	2	2.1	0.96×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 662	$2.88	0.2%	2	2.1	0.93×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Memento (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 645	$2.80	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 617	$2.68	0.2%	4	2.3	1.74×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 595	$2.57	0.2%	3	2.4	1.26×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 535	$2.32	0.2%	1	2.6	0.38×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 503	$2.18	0.2%	4	2.8	1.42×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 498	$2.16	0.2%	2	2.8	0.70×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Memento (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 485	$2.11	0.2%	4	2.9	1.37×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 461	$2.00	0.2%	3	3.1	0.98×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 455	$1.97	0.2%	4	3.1	1.28×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 437	$1.90	0.2%	2	3.2	0.62×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Memento (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$1.76	2.0%	19	28.3	0.67×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 46	$1.60	2.0%	28	31.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$1.52	2.0%	20	32.8	0.61×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 40	$1.39	2.0%	40	35.8	1.12×
P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 39	$1.38	2.0%	43	36.1	1.19×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$1.20	2.0%	55	41.5	1.33×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$1.17	2.0%	47	42.6	1.10×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$1.17	2.0%	46	42.6	1.08×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$1.17	2.0%	47	42.6	1.10×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 32	$1.14	2.0%	42	43.7	0.96×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$1.13	2.0%	39	44.1	0.89×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$1.09	2.0%	44	45.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 30	$1.06	2.0%	45	47.0	0.96×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$1.03	2.0%	47	48.3	0.97×
P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$1.03	2.0%	56	48.3	1.16×
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 28	$1.00	2.0%	56	49.8	1.12×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.98	2.0%	57	50.8	1.12×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.96	2.0%	41	51.9	0.79×
P250 \| Contaminant (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 27	$0.95	2.0%	49	52.4	0.93×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$0.92	2.0%	44	54.1	0.81×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$0.91	2.0%	60	54.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$0.88	2.0%	48	56.6	0.85×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 24	$0.86	2.0%	53	57.9	0.92×
P250 \| Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 24	$0.85	2.0%	69	58.6	1.18×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 23	$0.82	2.0%	67	60.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$0.76	2.0%	52	65.5	0.79×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$0.76	2.0%	78	65.5	1.19×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/clucking, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecK8$2.00$0.850.43x5m

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffMaldini$2.00$1.000.50x2h

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pinkMegan Fox$2.00$13.706.85x2h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil specMegan Fox$2.00$0.880.44x2h

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffSCORE_PION$2.00$1.000.50x2h

P250 | Contaminant (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare👑𝐁𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐲👑$2.00$1.380.69x3h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecTaškas .$2.00$1.200.60x4h

StatTrak™ P250 | Contaminant (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecHilly Hank$2.00$0.980.49x7h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalFISHPOHUI$2.00$1.090.55x8h

P250 | Contaminant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecFISHPOHUI$2.00$0.890.45x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$2.00	87.97%	214
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$2.00	88.06%	214
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$2.00	87.72%	214
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.00	88.02%	214
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$2.00	88.04%	214
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$2.00	88.02%	214
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$2.00	88.00%	214
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$2.00	87.92%	214
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$2.00	87.89%	214
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$2.00	87.98%	214
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$2.00	88.02%	214
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$2.00	87.99%	214

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%Mythical 3.6%Ancient 0.0%classified 1.6%#eb4b4b 0.0%red 0.1%covert 0.1%pink 1.0%Classified 0.2%restricted 16.2%#d32ee6 0.0%Legendary 0.1%milspec 23.7%mil spec 16.1%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%violet 7.5%blue 7.4%#8847ff 0.9%Restricted 0.1%Rare 5.1%#4b69ff 16.1%best hit —