Clutch Season

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$23.00

Advertised RTP

88.03%

EV $20.25 from 135 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.64%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

-0.5%82.5%165.5%

Small sample. 8 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	71.64%±93.2	—	odds
7d	8	71.64%±93.2	—	odds
30d	8	71.64%±93.2	—	odds
All	8	71.64%±93.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values135 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$542	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$374	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$326	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$273	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$232	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$219	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$214	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$204	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,786	$193	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,786	$192	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$187	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,695	$183	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$175	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$172	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,562	$171	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$167	0.5%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$164	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$162	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$158	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$158	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,389	$150	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$144	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$143	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$142	0.5%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$139	0.5%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$135	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$131	0.5%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$131	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,205	$129	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$129	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,163	$126	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$124	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$122	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,124	$121	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 1,111	$120	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$118	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$116	0.5%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,053	$114	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,020	$110	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$110	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 980	$106	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 893	$96.35	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 862	$93.45	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 855	$92.48	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 840	$91.25	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 758	$81.97	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 752	$81.65	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 752	$81.63	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 758	$81.42	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 752	$81.37	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 752	$80.86	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 746	$80.66	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 746	$80.61	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 746	$80.60	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 746	$80.52	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 746	$80.39	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 741	$79.97	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 741	$79.96	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 735	$79.32	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 735	$79.20	0.5%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 714	$77.23	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 699	$75.66	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 671	$72.82	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$72.26	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 658	$70.77	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 649	$70.09	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 641	$69.28	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 637	$68.80	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 625	$67.31	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$67.25	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 621	$67.19	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 617	$66.69	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 617	$66.43	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 613	$66.14	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 610	$66.12	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 602	$64.96	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 585	$62.93	0.5%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 575	$61.76	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 571	$61.54	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 571	$61.53	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 568	$61.19	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 562	$60.82	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 543	$58.72	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 543	$58.61	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 513	$55.35	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 510	$55.31	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 503	$54.30	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 485	$52.39	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 485	$52.37	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 478	$51.46	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 474	$51.13	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 465	$50.36	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 461	$49.78	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 439	$47.29	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 431	$46.45	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 427	$45.96	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 417	$45.02	0.5%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 415	$44.96	0.5%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 408	$44.03	0.5%	1	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 407	$43.89	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 397	$42.84	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 394	$42.54	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 386	$41.80	0.5%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 382	$41.27	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 370	$40.03	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 370	$40.00	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 370	$39.87	0.5%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 366	$39.61	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 358	$38.70	0.5%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 358	$38.70	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 352	$38.05	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 326	$35.17	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 313	$33.77	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 286	$30.79	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 268	$28.92	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 249	$26.84	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 245	$26.51	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 243	$26.26	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 202	$21.80	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 196	$21.22	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 190	$20.48	0.5%	1	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$20.01	2.5%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$19.21	2.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 37	$19.05	2.5%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$18.83	2.5%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$18.83	2.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 37	$18.72	2.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 35	$17.93	2.5%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 21	$11.01	2.5%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16	$8.31	2.5%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16	$7.99	2.5%	1	1.0	0.97×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$7.83	2.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	11.3%	$4.53	2.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	12.9%	$3.98	2.5%	4	2.1	1.94×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	13.2%	$3.87	2.5%	3	2.1	1.42×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/clutch-season, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.