Dauntless

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$36.96

Advertised RTP

87.99%

EV $32.52 from 116 items

Observed RTP, 30d

116.80%

59 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

32 openings · below min

30 days

59 openings · below min

since tracking started

59 openings · below min

-0.5%97.3%195.0%

Small sample. 59 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	45.32%±149.2	—	odds
7d	32	107.45%±62.8	—	odds
30d	59	116.80%±51.4	—	odds
All	59	116.80%±51.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values116 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$1,871	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare	1 in 5,556	$1,320	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$1,265	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$1,265	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$1,192	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 4,000	$975	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$936	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,704	$928	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,704	$922	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 3,704	$872	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$808	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,226	$774	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$763	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,226	$761	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,941	$722	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,941	$718	0.8%	1	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$680	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$654	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,632	$640	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 2,439	$584	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,439	$581	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$542	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,174	$525	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,128	$518	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$517	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$488	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,786	$432	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,695	$415	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 1,695	$412	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$405	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$383	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,562	$376	0.7%	1	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,538	$368	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,471	$361	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$350	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$330	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$299	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,235	$297	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$277	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,136	$274	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,124	$273	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$269	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$267	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,010	$243	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 840	$203	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 820	$197	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 794	$192	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$187	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 758	$183	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 746	$181	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 746	$181	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 714	$173	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 690	$167	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 621	$151	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 617	$150	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 606	$146	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 599	$145	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 592	$144	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 592	$143	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 581	$141	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 568	$138	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 562	$136	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 538	$130	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 513	$124	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 508	$123	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 495	$120	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 493	$120	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 483	$117	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 478	$116	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 469	$114	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 465	$112	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 461	$112	0.7%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 461	$112	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 459	$111	0.7%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$110	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 429	$104	0.7%	3	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 417	$101	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 417	$101	0.7%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 415	$101	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 403	$97.64	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 356	$86.31	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 356	$86.23	0.7%	1	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 348	$84.25	0.7%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 345	$83.64	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 342	$82.90	0.7%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 338	$81.69	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 329	$79.82	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 329	$79.71	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 327	$79.18	0.7%	1	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 325	$78.67	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 319	$77.43	0.7%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 299	$72.54	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 297	$71.84	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 296	$71.71	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 292	$70.63	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 290	$70.24	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 287	$69.59	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 279	$67.61	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 275	$66.77	0.7%	2	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 264	$63.94	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 258	$62.47	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 242	$58.57	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 230	$55.64	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 212	$51.43	0.7%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 149	$36.19	0.7%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 146	$35.39	0.7%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$34.63	0.7%	3	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 140	$33.98	0.7%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$31.75	2.4%	2	1.5	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$27.81	2.4%	3	1.7	1.75×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$27.31	2.4%	2	1.7	1.14×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$25.44	2.4%	4	1.9	2.13×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 19	$15.28	2.4%	3	3.1	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	15.4%	$5.17	2.4%	6	9.2	0.65×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	15.5%	$5.13	2.4%	7	9.3	0.75×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	32.9%	$2.42	2.4%	12	19.7	0.61×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/dauntless, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covertJerik$44.00$71816.32x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedButt_Fcker_5000$44.00$36.990.84x7h

M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedbongomurzynkongo$95.00$26.480.28x7h

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffshubidibap$44.00$2.420.06x9h

M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedRED JOHN$44.00$36.990.84x17h

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covertNivin⁷$44.00$97.342.21x1d

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffS_omic$44.00$2.420.06x1d

M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedKCmatt$19.00$36.151.90x2d

M4A1-S | Solitude (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryKouluttaja$95.00$14.210.15x2d

M4A1-S | Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedLinee$30.00$1043.47x3d

M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedSkyWalker$44.00$36.990.84x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$36.96	87.99%	116
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$36.96	88.00%	116

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.0%rare 0.0%covert knife 0.3%Classified 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 20.9%extraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.0%sunny 0.1%Ancient 0.1%Legendary 5.4%restricted 2.1%Mythical 0.2%red 0.2%violet 0.3%Restricted 0.7%pink 15.4%#8847ff 48.4%best hit $718 (16.32x)