Dead Hand Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$16.00

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $14.08 from 136 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.43%

640 openings, odds method

Variance

10.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 39

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

59 openings · below min

7 days

100.95%±27.47557 openings

30 days

96.43%±25.62640 openings

since tracking started

96.43%±25.62640 openings

70.0%157.5%245.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	59	160.27%±84.2	—	odds
7d	557	100.95%±27.5	+0.9σ	odds
30d	640	96.43%±25.6	+0.6σ	odds
All	640	96.43%±25.6	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values136 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 640 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 100,000	$1,079	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 5,000	$780	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 4,348	$658	1.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal	1 in 3,571	$546	1.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal	1 in 3,571	$545	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,448	$534	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 3,125	$484	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 3,030	$461	1.1%	1	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 3,030	$459	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 2,941	$443	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,857	$440	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,778	$427	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Battle-Scarred)gloves · epic	1 in 2,778	$425	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 2,703	$418	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,564	$387	1.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 2,222	$340	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)gloves · rare	1 in 2,174	$330	1.1%	1	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 2,128	$324	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,128	$323	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 2,128	$322	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 2,041	$313	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal	1 in 2,041	$310	1.1%	1	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 2,000	$307	1.1%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,887	$289	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 1,887	$284	1.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,754	$270	1.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 1,786	$268	1.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,695	$257	1.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 1,639	$251	1.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 1,587	$244	1.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 1,538	$237	1.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 1,538	$235	1.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 1,515	$231	1.1%	1	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,493	$228	1.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 1,471	$226	1.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,471	$223	1.1%	2	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 1,429	$217	1.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,408	$217	1.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 1,389	$214	1.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Well-Worn)gloves · gold	1 in 1,389	$211	1.1%	1	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 1,370	$209	1.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Creme Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 1,333	$202	1.1%	1	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 1,316	$201	1.1%	1	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,205	$184	1.1%	1	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 1,176	$181	1.1%	1	0.5	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 1,124	$172	1.1%	0	0.6	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 1,111	$170	1.1%	1	0.6	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,099	$168	1.1%	3	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 1,087	$165	1.1%	1	0.6	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,075	$163	1.1%	1	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,042	$159	1.1%	0	0.6	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 1,031	$158	1.1%	1	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,031	$157	1.1%	0	0.6	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,010	$155	1.1%	1	0.6	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 952	$146	1.1%	1	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 943	$144	1.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 935	$143	1.1%	1	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 909	$139	1.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 901	$138	1.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 862	$132	1.1%	0	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 870	$132	1.1%	2	0.7	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 862	$132	1.1%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 855	$130	1.1%	1	0.7	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 833	$128	1.1%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 833	$128	1.1%	0	0.8	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 769	$117	1.1%	1	0.8	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 763	$117	1.1%	0	0.8	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 763	$116	1.1%	0	0.8	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 735	$112	1.1%	0	0.9	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 714	$109	1.1%	0	0.9	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Creme Pinstripe (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 704	$108	1.1%	1	0.9	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 662	$101	1.1%	1	1.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 641	$97.85	1.1%	1	1.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Well-Worn)gloves · rare	1 in 633	$96.80	1.1%	1	1.0	0.99×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 613	$93.72	1.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Creme Pinstripe (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 549	$83.89	1.1%	1	1.2	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 526	$80.50	1.1%	2	1.2	1.64×
★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 524	$80.05	1.1%	1	1.2	0.82×
★ Sport Gloves \| Creme Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 515	$78.64	1.1%	1	1.2	0.81×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 508	$77.54	1.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 437	$66.75	1.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 418	$63.79	1.1%	2	1.5	1.31×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 415	$63.27	1.1%	1	1.5	0.65×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 324	$49.49	1.1%	2	2.0	1.01×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 317	$48.53	1.1%	1	2.0	0.50×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 213	$32.52	1.1%	3	3.0	1.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$24.38	1.1%	5	4.0	1.25×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 122	$18.59	1.1%	7	5.3	1.33×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 855	$13.91	0.1%	0	0.7	—
P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 820	$13.35	0.1%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 694	$11.30	0.1%	2	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 538	$8.75	0.1%	2	1.2	1.68×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 481	$7.85	0.1%	1	1.3	0.75×
MP7 \| Amberline (Factory New)weapon · 3	1 in 474	$7.73	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 418	$6.82	0.1%	3	1.5	1.96×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 400	$6.52	0.1%	2	1.6	1.25×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 305	$4.97	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Galigator (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 293	$4.78	0.1%	1	2.2	0.46×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 270	$4.40	0.1%	2	2.4	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 198	$3.22	0.1%	3	3.2	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 164	$2.68	0.1%	6	3.9	1.54×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 141	$2.30	0.1%	4	4.5	0.88×
MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$2.20	0.1%	9	4.7	1.90×
Galil AR \| Galigator (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 129	$2.11	0.1%	6	4.9	1.21×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 123	$2.00	0.1%	4	5.2	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 93	$1.51	0.1%	1	6.9	0.14×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$1.27	0.1%	9	8.2	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 73	$1.19	0.1%	10	8.8	1.14×
Galil AR \| Galigator (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 73	$1.19	0.1%	7	8.8	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$1.18	0.1%	10	8.8	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$1.18	0.1%	9	8.8	1.02×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 72	$1.17	0.1%	5	8.9	0.56×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.13	0.1%	13	9.2	1.41×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.13	0.1%	11	9.2	1.19×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 67	$1.10	0.1%	9	9.5	0.95×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 67	$1.09	0.1%	5	9.6	0.52×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 66	$1.08	0.1%	6	9.7	0.62×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$1.03	0.1%	9	10.1	0.89×
MP7 \| Amberline (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$1.02	0.1%	13	10.2	1.27×
Galil AR \| Galigator (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$1.01	0.1%	8	10.3	0.77×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 58	$0.94	0.1%	17	11.1	1.53×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 58	$0.94	0.1%	13	11.1	1.17×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$0.92	0.1%	13	11.3	1.15×
MP7 \| Amberline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$0.91	0.1%	12	11.5	1.05×
Galil AR \| Galigator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 56	$0.91	0.1%	5	11.5	0.44×
Sawed-Off \| Fusion (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 56	$0.91	0.1%	12	11.5	1.05×
M249 \| Bock Blocks (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 55	$0.90	0.1%	6	11.6	0.52×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.47	0.1%	31	22.2	1.40×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$0.37	0.1%	34	28.2	1.21×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 21	$0.35	0.1%	29	29.8	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$0.32	0.1%	23	32.6	0.71×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.29	0.1%	41	36.0	1.14×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.28	0.1%	34	37.3	0.91×
Sawed-Off \| Fusion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 15	$0.24	0.1%	46	43.5	1.06×
UMP-45 \| Fragment (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 15	$0.24	0.1%	52	43.5	1.20×
M249 \| Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 15	$0.24	0.1%	37	43.5	0.85×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/dead-hand, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryN'Vico$16.00$65841.10x19h

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers (Minimal Wear)gloves · ImmortalZert$16.00$51732.32x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violetjust_Andrew™$16.00$1.030.06x1h

M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecLa Caillette"$16.00$0.240.02x1h

USP-S | Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecMaurice$16.00$0.940.06x1h

Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffdonatelo$16.00$0.910.06x2h

M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecdonatelo$16.00$0.240.02x2h

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell (Well-Worn)gloves · rareCzajkaaa$16.00$23714.80x2h

Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec★ ZΣD ★$16.00$0.320.02x3h

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkdonluciano015$16.00$11.300.71x3h

M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLogiryu$16.00$0.280.02x4h

UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffLogiryu$16.00$0.240.02x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$16.00	88.01%	136
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$16.00	87.98%	136
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$16.00	87.89%	136
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$16.00	88.05%	136
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$16.00	88.03%	136
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$16.00	88.00%	136
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$16.00	88.03%	136
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$16.00	88.00%	136
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$16.00	88.01%	136
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$16.00	88.03%	136
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$16.00	87.99%	136

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 0.2%sunny 0.2%legendary 0.1%extraordinary 2.1%Immortal 0.9%rare 2.8%epic 0.7%gold 0.2%Ancient 0.2%red 0.7%Legendary 1.1%pink 2.3%Mythical 1.3%uncommon 0.7%violet 13.6%#8847ff 4.3%Rare 5.4%restricted 6.9%milspec 20.4%blue 20.6%#4b69ff 15.4%best hit $658 (41.10x)