Easy Start

A case on Hellcase (first-strike), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

88.02%

EV $0.44 from 230 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.63%

5,535 openings, odds method

Variance

4.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

73.77%±13.67641 openings

7 days

81.17%±5.614,563 openings

30 days

77.63%±5.025,535 openings

since tracking started

77.63%±5.025,535 openings

59.5%73.8%88.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	641	73.77%±13.7	+0.5σ	odds
7d	4,563	81.17%±5.61	+1.6σ	odds
30d	5,535	77.63%±5.02	+0.9σ	odds
All	5,535	77.63%±5.02	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values230 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,554 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$89.54	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 16,667	$33.75	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$27.24	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$25.70	0.4%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 12,500	$25.07	0.5%	2	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$23.62	0.4%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 12,500	$22.64	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$22.60	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 12,500	$22.59	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$22.53	0.5%	1	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$22.42	0.5%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$21.84	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 8,333	$15.37	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 8,333	$14.60	0.4%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$13.47	0.4%	0	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$11.76	0.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,250	$11.26	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,556	$10.40	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 5,000	$9.43	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,762	$9.14	0.4%	4	1.2	3.43×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,545	$8.56	0.4%	1	1.2	0.82×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,167	$7.95	0.4%	1	1.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 4,000	$7.57	0.4%	2	1.4	1.44×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,571	$6.81	0.4%	2	1.6	1.29×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$6.72	0.4%	2	1.6	1.29×
AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 3,448	$6.45	0.4%	1	1.6	0.62×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,226	$5.97	0.4%	2	1.7	1.16×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,125	$5.95	0.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$5.18	0.4%	3	2.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,632	$4.93	0.4%	2	2.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,632	$4.91	0.4%	2	2.1	0.95×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$4.82	0.4%	2	2.1	0.95×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 2,500	$4.70	0.4%	4	2.2	1.80×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,381	$4.52	0.4%	2	2.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,273	$4.28	0.4%	2	2.4	0.82×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,222	$4.13	0.4%	1	2.5	0.40×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$4.04	0.4%	3	2.6	1.15×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 2,128	$3.96	0.4%	0	2.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,128	$3.96	0.4%	3	2.6	1.15×
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,887	$3.50	0.4%	3	2.9	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,852	$3.50	0.4%	3	3.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,852	$3.43	0.4%	1	3.0	0.33×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,695	$3.14	0.4%	3	3.3	0.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,538	$2.88	0.4%	4	3.6	1.11×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,538	$2.86	0.4%	7	3.6	1.94×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,515	$2.86	0.4%	3	3.7	0.82×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,493	$2.78	0.4%	4	3.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,471	$2.77	0.4%	1	3.8	0.26×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,471	$2.73	0.4%	3	3.8	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,449	$2.71	0.4%	5	3.8	1.30×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,389	$2.60	0.4%	7	4.0	1.75×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,389	$2.59	0.4%	5	4.0	1.25×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$2.52	0.4%	3	4.2	0.72×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,316	$2.45	0.4%	7	4.2	1.66×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,299	$2.42	0.4%	4	4.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,266	$2.39	0.4%	2	4.4	0.46×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 1,266	$2.38	0.4%	4	4.4	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 1,235	$2.31	0.4%	8	4.5	1.78×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,235	$2.30	0.4%	1	4.5	0.22×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,220	$2.28	0.4%	2	4.6	0.44×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,149	$2.16	0.4%	2	4.8	0.41×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,149	$2.15	0.4%	3	4.8	0.62×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,149	$2.15	0.4%	6	4.8	1.24×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,136	$2.13	0.4%	3	4.9	0.61×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 1,136	$2.12	0.4%	3	4.9	0.61×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,124	$2.09	0.4%	6	4.9	1.21×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,111	$2.08	0.4%	3	5.0	0.60×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,111	$2.08	0.4%	4	5.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,087	$2.04	0.4%	6	5.1	1.17×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,075	$2.01	0.4%	3	5.2	0.58×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,053	$1.97	0.4%	4	5.3	0.76×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,042	$1.96	0.4%	11	5.3	2.06×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,042	$1.95	0.4%	6	5.3	1.13×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,031	$1.93	0.4%	6	5.4	1.11×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,010	$1.88	0.4%	4	5.5	0.73×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 971	$1.82	0.4%	5	5.7	0.87×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 962	$1.79	0.4%	5	5.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 926	$1.74	0.4%	5	6.0	0.83×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 917	$1.72	0.4%	6	6.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 901	$1.69	0.4%	0	6.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 901	$1.69	0.4%	5	6.2	0.81×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 840	$1.58	0.4%	7	6.6	1.06×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 840	$1.57	0.4%	9	6.6	1.36×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 840	$1.57	0.4%	5	6.6	0.76×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 806	$1.50	0.4%	8	6.9	1.16×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 794	$1.49	0.4%	7	7.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 787	$1.47	0.4%	6	7.1	0.85×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 775	$1.46	0.4%	6	7.2	0.84×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 769	$1.44	0.4%	8	7.2	1.11×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 758	$1.42	0.4%	3	7.3	0.41×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 758	$1.41	0.4%	7	7.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 752	$1.41	0.4%	11	7.4	1.49×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 741	$1.39	0.4%	3	7.5	0.40×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 746	$1.39	0.4%	8	7.4	1.07×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 741	$1.38	0.4%	6	7.5	0.80×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 741	$1.38	0.4%	7	7.5	0.93×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 741	$1.38	0.4%	6	7.5	0.80×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 719	$1.35	0.4%	8	7.7	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 725	$1.35	0.4%	4	7.7	0.52×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 714	$1.34	0.4%	6	7.8	0.77×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 714	$1.34	0.4%	13	7.8	1.67×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 709	$1.33	0.4%	9	7.8	1.15×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 704	$1.32	0.4%	8	7.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 699	$1.31	0.4%	10	7.9	1.26×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 699	$1.31	0.4%	8	7.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 694	$1.30	0.4%	6	8.0	0.75×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 667	$1.24	0.4%	6	8.3	0.72×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 662	$1.24	0.4%	10	8.4	1.19×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 637	$1.19	0.4%	10	8.7	1.15×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 625	$1.17	0.4%	7	8.9	0.79×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 621	$1.16	0.4%	13	8.9	1.45×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 613	$1.15	0.4%	12	9.1	1.33×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 610	$1.14	0.4%	11	9.1	1.21×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 606	$1.13	0.4%	8	9.2	0.87×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 599	$1.12	0.4%	10	9.3	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 599	$1.12	0.4%	4	9.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 599	$1.12	0.4%	6	9.3	0.65×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 599	$1.12	0.4%	7	9.3	0.75×
AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 571	$1.07	0.4%	10	9.7	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 568	$1.06	0.4%	13	9.8	1.33×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 568	$1.06	0.4%	13	9.8	1.33×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 556	$1.04	0.4%	8	10.0	0.80×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 556	$1.04	0.4%	12	10.0	1.20×
AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 546	$1.02	0.4%	12	10.2	1.18×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 543	$1.02	0.4%	11	10.2	1.08×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 541	$1.01	0.4%	11	10.3	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 535	$1.00	0.4%	12	10.4	1.16×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 513	$0.96	0.4%	13	10.8	1.20×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 513	$0.96	0.4%	10	10.8	0.92×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 508	$0.95	0.4%	13	10.9	1.19×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 508	$0.95	0.4%	14	10.9	1.28×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 503	$0.94	0.4%	13	11.1	1.18×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 503	$0.94	0.4%	8	11.1	0.72×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 493	$0.92	0.4%	8	11.3	0.71×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 493	$0.92	0.4%	12	11.3	1.06×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 493	$0.92	0.4%	10	11.3	0.89×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 476	$0.89	0.4%	16	11.7	1.37×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 469	$0.88	0.4%	13	11.8	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 455	$0.85	0.4%	13	12.2	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 455	$0.85	0.4%	13	12.2	1.06×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 450	$0.84	0.4%	12	12.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 444	$0.83	0.4%	16	12.5	1.28×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 439	$0.82	0.4%	12	12.7	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 429	$0.80	0.4%	15	12.9	1.16×
MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 412	$0.77	0.4%	13	13.5	0.96×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 407	$0.76	0.4%	14	13.7	1.02×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 395	$0.74	0.4%	17	14.1	1.21×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 391	$0.73	0.4%	12	14.2	0.84×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 385	$0.72	0.4%	12	14.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 380	$0.71	0.4%	18	14.6	1.23×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 364	$0.68	0.4%	20	15.3	1.31×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 358	$0.67	0.4%	12	15.5	0.77×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 357	$0.67	0.4%	22	15.6	1.41×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 341	$0.64	0.4%	15	16.3	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 342	$0.64	0.4%	12	16.2	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 294	$0.55	0.4%	13	18.9	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 294	$0.55	0.4%	20	18.9	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 289	$0.54	0.4%	19	19.2	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 273	$0.51	0.4%	16	20.3	0.79×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 272	$0.51	0.4%	25	20.4	1.23×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 251	$0.47	0.4%	18	22.1	0.81×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 251	$0.47	0.4%	20	22.1	0.90×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 251	$0.47	0.4%	23	22.1	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 246	$0.46	0.4%	34	22.6	1.50×
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 240	$0.45	0.4%	25	23.1	1.08×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 218	$0.44	0.5%	25	25.5	0.98×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 218	$0.44	0.5%	26	25.5	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 213	$0.43	0.5%	19	26.1	0.73×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 208	$0.42	0.5%	19	26.7	0.71×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 203	$0.41	0.5%	27	27.4	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 203	$0.41	0.5%	29	27.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 188	$0.38	0.5%	32	29.5	1.08×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 188	$0.38	0.5%	38	29.5	1.29×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 183	$0.37	0.5%	33	30.3	1.09×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 183	$0.37	0.5%	31	30.3	1.02×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 183	$0.37	0.5%	36	30.3	1.19×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 183	$0.37	0.5%	29	30.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 183	$0.37	0.5%	30	30.3	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 178	$0.36	0.5%	25	31.2	0.80×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 178	$0.36	0.5%	38	31.2	1.22×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 173	$0.35	0.5%	29	32.1	0.90×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 168	$0.34	0.5%	36	33.0	1.09×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 153	$0.31	0.5%	48	36.2	1.33×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 149	$0.30	0.5%	39	37.4	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 143	$0.29	0.5%	35	38.7	0.90×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 139	$0.28	0.5%	43	40.1	1.07×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 139	$0.28	0.5%	39	40.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 129	$0.26	0.5%	43	43.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 124	$0.25	0.5%	43	44.9	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 119	$0.24	0.5%	28	46.8	0.60×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 114	$0.23	0.5%	43	48.8	0.88×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 114	$0.23	0.5%	45	48.8	0.92×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 114	$0.23	0.5%	49	48.8	1.00×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 114	$0.23	0.5%	44	48.8	0.90×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 104	$0.21	0.5%	51	53.4	0.95×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 104	$0.21	0.5%	47	53.4	0.88×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 104	$0.21	0.5%	52	53.5	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 99	$0.20	0.5%	66	56.1	1.18×
MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$0.18	0.5%	76	62.4	1.22×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 84	$0.17	0.5%	63	66.0	0.95×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 74	$0.15	0.5%	102	74.9	1.36×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.14	0.5%	85	80.1	1.06×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.14	0.5%	79	80.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.14	0.5%	95	80.1	1.19×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.13	0.5%	80	86.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.13	0.5%	91	86.4	1.05×
MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 64	$0.13	0.5%	94	86.3	1.09×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.13	0.5%	95	86.4	1.10×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 59	$0.12	0.5%	79	93.5	0.84×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 59	$0.12	0.5%	82	93.5	0.88×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 59	$0.12	0.5%	96	93.5	1.03×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 59	$0.12	0.5%	96	93.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 59	$0.12	0.5%	86	93.5	0.92×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 59	$0.12	0.5%	116	93.5	1.24×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 59	$0.12	0.5%	92	93.5	0.98×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 59	$0.12	0.5%	84	93.5	0.90×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.10	0.5%	114	112.2	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	109	112.2	0.97×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	124	112.2	1.10×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	97	112.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	101	112.2	0.90×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	117	112.2	1.04×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.10	0.5%	128	112.2	1.14×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	95	112.2	0.85×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	90	112.2	0.80×
MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	99	112.2	0.88×
MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	107	112.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 49	$0.10	0.5%	110	112.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.10	0.5%	127	112.2	1.13×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 45	$0.09	0.5%	124	124.7	0.99×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/easy-start, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified.ICEMAN.$0.50$28.4556.90x5d

Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDavolta$0.50$25.7051.40x8h

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkbogmon gm ppf$0.50$25.0750.14x3d

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkBread_Hunter$0.50$25.0750.14x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Insomnia (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec[OGC]Chamanoss$0.50$0.230.46x2m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecTyukod Profija$0.50$0.100.20x2m

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecTyukod Profija$0.50$0.130.26x3m

MP5-SD | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecTyukod Profija$0.50$0.090.18x3m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecRoigar$0.50$0.100.20x6m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecjonkyy$0.50$0.310.62x11m

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecrwiktor1995$0.50$0.100.20x12m

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecrwiktor1995$0.50$0.130.26x13m

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specStrannik610$0.50$0.300.60x18m

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · RareÜgyifogyi$0.50$1.062.12x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$0.50	88.02%	230
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$0.50	87.92%	230
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.50	87.94%	230
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$0.50	88.00%	230
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$0.50	87.97%	230
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$0.50	88.04%	230
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$0.50	88.13%	230
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$0.50	88.00%	230
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.50	87.91%	230
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$0.50	87.89%	230

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 2.0%classified 0.2%violet 0.9%pink 0.0%#d32ee6 0.1%#8847ff 0.9%Mythical 0.5%restricted 3.8%mil spec 6.2%Restricted 0.4%milspec 47.9%#4b69ff 22.6%blue 5.7%Rare 4.3%Mil Spec 1.8%Mil Spec Grade 2.7%Legendary 0.1%best hit $28.45 (56.90x)